FanPost

Statistical Proof that JP Dumont is the Best Predator and Shouldn't be Traded

These numbers speak for themselves...

I'm not the best at maths and statistics, but I've heard a lot that the team who shoots more will win more. However, I recently noticed that out of 30 teams, only 8 display a win percentage that is better in games they outshoot the opposition than in the games when they are outshot.

Now, this is not what I expected to find at all. So, my question was this: in the average year, would one expect most teams to do better when they outshoot the opposition, or is this year typical?

I can think of lots of reasons why the stats might be the way they are, but I've always heard people say shots are strongly correlated with winning (though, to be fair, to this point in the season all six teams above .600 are in the top ten in shots per game.) Hmm. After digging for a few minutes, I came up with some interesting information:

First, a GRAPH!! showing how many teams whose outshooting record has been better than their outshot-by-opposition record, since the lockout.

 

My thoughts upon discovering this, and I quote: "...WAT"

Essentially, since the lockout, the number of teams who do better when they outshoot the opposition has been steadily declining. Instead, we've gotten to the point where no team has a win % over .625 when outshooting the opposition so far this year, and only two are above .595.

 

I then looked at all 30 teams' Win% over the same period, and illustrate my findings with a second GRAPH!!

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Not quite as dramatic as the other GRAPH!!, but pretty dramatic nonetheless.

It's clear what conclusions we can draw from this: within a few years, if this trend keeps up, ALL of the teams in the NHL will win more games when they are outshot than when they outshoot the adversary. What's something you can do besides shoot? PASS!! What are Dumont's first and middle names? Just Pass!! This guy is the future, and he's here now.

In all seriousness,  I don't really feel that JP's the best Predator currently. That's Mister PEEEKKK----Klein, of course.

But even more seriously...anyone have any explanations for the swing in numbers there? Is shooting less important? (couldn't be). Are teams playing differently since the rule changes? (could be). Is it just a statistical anomaly? (I know, I know, my sample size isn't that big, etc.).

 

Also, a complimentary POLL!! for your enjoyment:

This FanPost was written by an OTF reader, and does not represent the views of the editorial staff. Got something you'd like to share? <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/admin/entries/new?community_id=208&entry_type=FanPost" target="new">Post your own</a>!

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