NHL Strength of Schedule could influence which teams make the playoffs

by Dirk Hoag on Feb 18, 2011 3:18 PM EST in Statistical Analysis

In those tight battles for playoff spots, the strength of a team's schedule could play a large role in determining whether they make it or not.

As we head into the final quarter of the 2010-11 NHL regular season, the scramble for playoff positioning is as tight as ever, particularly in the Western Conference. To what extent will the strength of schedule come into play for the contenders?

Building off the data in my NHL Super Schedule, and combining that with updated team-level metrics like goals/game, I put together a table reflecting the quality of each team's collection of opponents for the rest of the season. Just follow after the jump to take a look...

In the table below, you should be able to click any of the column headings and the table will re-sort based on that value (click again to switch between ascending/descending). The first 3 columns are the number of road, home, and back-to-back sets played by each team, and the rest of the columns refer to the average of their upcoming opponents. So, for example, the remaining opponents for Philadelphia have earned a combined 51.3% of possible points in the standings (the league-wide average is .557, thanks to those pesky OTL points).

Team	Road	Home	B2B	Avg Pts%	Avg G/G	Avg GA/G	Avg 5 on 5 GF/GA	Avg PP%	Avg PK%	Avg Shots/G	Avg SA/G
Anaheim Ducks	10	14	5	.575	2.80	2.72	1.05	18.8	81.5	29.8	29.7
Atlanta Thrashers	12	11	3	.543	2.73	2.74	1.01	17.0	82.7	30.8	30.6
Boston Bruins	13	11	5	.523	2.66	2.84	0.94	17.6	81.8	30.3	30.0
Buffalo Sabres	12	14	8	.555	2.74	2.77	0.99	17.3	82.0	30.6	30.7
Carolina Hurricanes	8	16	9	.551	2.78	2.86	0.98	18.2	82.2	31.3	30.2
Columbus Blue Jackets	13	12	5	.568	2.79	2.70	1.06	17.9	82.0	30.3	30.3
Calgary Flames	10	12	3	.563	2.79	2.76	1.03	18.7	81.0	30.3	30.6
Chicago Blackhawks	14	11	7	.583	2.81	2.75	1.03	17.8	82.2	30.9	30.4
Colorado Avalanche	14	9	5	.547	2.69	2.76	0.99	17.7	80.8	29.0	30.6
Dallas Stars	13	11	3	.584	2.79	2.68	1.04	19.4	82.1	30.2	30.2
Detroit Red Wings	13	12	5	.566	2.75	2.68	1.03	18.6	81.9	30.1	30.2
Edmonton Oilers	13	11	3	.582	2.86	2.74	1.07	18.4	82.0	30.2	30.4
Florida Panthers	13	13	4	.546	2.76	2.87	0.96	18.4	82.0	30.9	30.1
Los Angeles Kings	10	14	2	.576	2.83	2.81	1.01	19.7	81.0	29.8	31.1
Minnesota Wild	12	13	6	.556	2.80	2.82	1.00	18.6	81.0	30.0	30.4
Montreal Canadiens	14	9	2	.554	2.78	2.78	1.01	18.2	81.7	30.8	30.6
New Jersey Devils	13	12	7	.547	2.77	2.82	0.99	17.8	82.3	30.8	30.8
Nashville Predators	9	15	3	.564	2.85	2.84	1.05	18.6	80.4	30.3	30.7
New York Islanders	11	13	7	.562	2.75	2.68	1.03	16.8	82.7	30.6	30.3
New York Rangers	11	12	4	.551	2.76	2.78	1.00	18.1	82.5	31.0	30.7
Ottawa Senators	13	12	5	.562	2.79	2.73	1.04	17.3	82.5	31.4	30.6
Philadelphia Flyers	13	12	4	.513	2.69	2.88	0.94	17.3	81.3	30.1	31.1
Phoenix Coyotes	12	11	3	.586	2.86	2.73	1.06	19.3	81.4	30.7	29.7
Pittsburgh Penguins	13	10	6	.533	2.71	2.81	0.98	17.3	81.7	30.9	30.3
San Jose Sharks	9	14	4	.588	2.85	2.73	1.06	19.1	81.5	29.8	30.4
St. Louis Blues	15	11	6	.561	2.81	2.80	1.02	18.6	81.3	30.2	30.3
Tampa Bay Lightning	12	12	5	.519	2.65	2.79	0.95	17.5	82.2	30.6	30.8
Toronto Maple Leafs	12	12	4	.554	2.81	2.80	1.02	18.3	82.4	31.2	30.7
Vancouver Canucks	11	12	1	.559	2.74	2.76	1.03	17.4	81.2	29.7	30.6
Washington Capitals	13	10	6	.530	2.73	2.85	0.96	17.1	82.1	30.8	30.6

So who do you think has it hard on their way to the playoffs? The Chicago Blackhawks will have their work cut out for them, with 7 back-to-back sets along with a combined Points Percentage against of .583. Or how about Los Angeles? Will Jonathan Quick be able to keep them in the hunt, as the Kings take on teams with a combined 31.1 shots per game?

How does this picture look for your favorite team? The Nashville Predators, for example, may find some hope in the fact that their opponents sport a combined 80.4% PK, the worst in the league. Could that help alleviate what has been another disappointing season on the power play?

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Comments

This chart makes my head hurt.

And, all I’ve got to say about the chart is:

Feb 5th: Predators – 3, Detroit – 0
Feb 7th: Predators – 0, Edmonton – 4
Feb 9th: Predators – 4, Detroit – 1

Stats, schmatz. There’s no explaining the above 5 day swing.

by rusherman on Feb 18, 2011 3:59 PM EST reply actions

I like that chart.
Lots.

So, my tactic with conservation of apex predators is to get people excited and take them to where they live.
~Steve Irwin

by cisar on Feb 18, 2011 4:46 PM EST reply actions

This is amazing

Thanks Dirk!

Looks like Philly has the easiest end to the season – lowest pts %, 4th lowest G/G, highest GA/G, worst 5on5, 4th worst PP…

"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"
NM's Chief Lady Pleaser. Just ask eightyseven.

by Semi_Colon on Feb 18, 2011 4:51 PM EST reply actions

problem with this logic

is a few of those games come against the Isles, Devils, and Leafs (5 of them to be specific)… the 3 hottest teams in the East since the All-Star break… whose numbers look bad for the whole year, but not recently.

Add in 2 with Buffalo, 2 with the Rangers, 2 with the Penguins, and another with the Bruins… and yeah… (as much as it pains me to say it) the teams’ stats won’t mean a whole hell of a lot in those games against the Flyers.

It won’t be as easy a road as those numbers make it look.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Feb 26, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

Sure there is...

.. get up for rival

… let down game

… get up for rival again.

Simple.

by djzielin on Feb 18, 2011 5:35 PM EST reply actions

15/24...

Need to win 15 of the next 24 games. I think that’s very possible for this team. 100pts should get us about where we need to be.

by DonBorvio on Feb 18, 2011 7:15 PM EST reply actions

only 2 eastern teams plkay an above average strength of schedule. the islanders and sens and neither of them are going anywhere anyway. us and the sharks habe the best road vs home in the west and our SOS isnt too bad. dallas seems to have it tough especially w/ richards hurt and they already are sinking in quicksand. agreed on the hawks as well.

by predswilrule on Feb 18, 2011 10:59 PM EST reply actions