The Myth of Pevs, Santo, and Jones...How About some Facts

by Retired #7 on Mar 31, 2011 7:14 PM EDT

There are posts litterally on a daily basis about losing the players above, and the goal scoring that they have achieved since they left. Having watched all 3 players here, and in their new homes I have always believed that there is only one of them I really wish we still had (Pevs), but that was opinion not fact. These players are also brought up as "proof" that the Predators and Trotzie can't coach offensive talent. Again, I never believed this, but that was opinion as well....so today I seached for some facts. The analysis below looks at 5 "Leavers", the 3 players mentioned above, as well as Scott Nichol, and Vern Fiddler who left about the same time. These 5 players have played 706 games in Nashville, and 870 somewhere else. There goal production did increase from 0.14 gpg, to 0.15 gpg, and their points from 0.27ppg to 0.36 ppg....but lets look at a comparable group of 'Comers". Joel Ward, Marcel Goc, Sergei Kostitsyn, and Steve Sullivan have similar game totals: 737 game s with the Preds. and 1104 somewhere else, but look at their production change: from .20 gpg to .23 gpg, and .49 ppg to .64 ppg. The comparison show that the comers have improved more than the leavers! I am not trying to say we don't need more scorers, or that we aren't a defensive team...I simply wanted a factual comparison to give the haters something to think about. 2 hours to puck drop, go Preds!

Player	N-Games	N-Goals	N-Points	O-Games	O-Goals	O-Points	N-GPG	N-PPG	O-GPG	O-PPG
Peverly	73	13	20	197	51	134	0.18	0.27	0.26	0.68
Santorelli	32	2	3	77	18	38	0.06	0.09	0.23	0.49
Jones	87	14	28	82	17	22	0.16	0.32	0.21	0.27
Fiddler	305	45	93	173	14	50	0.15	0.30	0.08	0.29
Nichol	209	24	47	341	28	71	0.11	0.22	0.08	0.21
Leavers	706	98	191	870	128	315	0.14	0.27	0.15	0.36
Ward	225	40	98	11	0	1	0.18	0.44	0.00	0.09
Goc	124	21	54	265	20	54	0.17	0.44	0.08	0.20
Kostitsyn	72	19	54	155	24	68	0.26	0.75	0.15	0.44
Sullivan	316	90	263	673	176	419	0.28	0.83	0.26	0.62
Comers	737	170	469	1104	220	542	0.23	0.64	0.20	0.49

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Great Post

Peverly and Santorelli have had the most improvement since leaving the Preds. I think this is due to the fact they they were young players who were still coming into their own offensively when they left. The same can be said for SK74 coming to the Preds. For all of the other players the teams pretty much knew what they were getting. Those players had enough experience under their belts to show their true colors. Ward is a bit of an exception because he had very limited ice time before he came to the Preds.

by jerseypredsfan on Mar 31, 2011 8:31 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting stuff

With Santorelli, he had every opportunity to prove himself, it just became a numbers situation between himself and O’Reilly, the organization really only had room to keep one of them.

Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter, or join our site on Facebook!

by Dirk Hoag on Mar 31, 2011 10:15 PM EDT reply actions

ALSO

pevs has had faaaaar superior talent on his line much of the time since he left. had kovy quite a bit in atl. when you play w/ a 40-50 goal scorer you will get points just by skating into the offensive zone.

by predswilrule on Apr 1, 2011 2:31 AM EDT reply actions

I second this.

Linemates can make a HUGE difference—just ask Cheechoo. You know, that one guy that was good, for that one season, that one time, when he played on a line with Joe Thornton…

The best defense is a good defense.

by Smashvillain on Apr 1, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Not buying it

Jones, Peverley, and Santorelli have all benefited from increased ice time and being allowed to play to their strengths as opposed to what went on with them here. And if you’re going to apply the better linemates rationale I guess Fisher’s new linemates suck.

The truth is neither libelous nor slanderous.
Reason and logic instead of hope and faith.

by shoot the puck on Apr 1, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Not selling it, really.

Increased ice time, being allowed to play to their strengths, and better linemates all go together. All pieces of a puzzle, and I don’t think you can separate them completely. Maybe one of those factors had more of an impact, or one in particular started the cycle that led to more success, but I think they all go together.

I think one of those factors can make a huge impact, though. Cheechoo, for example, clearly seemed to benefit immensely from playing with Thornton. But even then, how much of Cheechoo’s decline was actually due to playing in a different system, and how much was the loss of Thornton? Wiser men than I could argue for hours (and probably have).

The best defense is a good defense.

by Smashvillain on Apr 1, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

C’mon, man. Surely you can admit that Ilya Kovalchuk, Milan Lucic, and Nathan Horton are going to make Peverley significantly better than he was playing with Tootoo or whatever poopoo platter (relatively speaking) he was with here.

"Nothing." - Tuukka Rask, after being asked what he saw on Shea Weber's game winner in overtime.

by Chris Burton on Apr 2, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Peverley

has not played with kovy, lucic, or horton as main linemates.

by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 9, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Glad to see the silent injury clear up!

Well, now we know why Mike Fisher wasn’t performing extremely well. Look what he’s been able to do now that he’s 100% healthy: 8 points in his last 6 games.

by davisca on Apr 9, 2011 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions

I know you're talking to me in particular, and I'm selling....

….you’ve taken two guys that dont’ have any offensive talent, Fiddler and Nichol and lumped them in with Peverley, Santorelli and Jones. That waters their respective surges down. Furthermore, the point is not whether Trotz can get blood out of a stone (Fiddler and Nichol), its about whether he can get points out of guys that have offensive skill. Those three alone have gone from 0.266 ppg in Nashville to 0.545 ppg with their new teams.

THAT’S THE POINT!!!

PS: Can you say Colin Wilson?

by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Apr 1, 2011 2:28 PM EDT reply actions

.545 ppg is …around 45 points a year, maybe 50. That isn’t exactly elite scoring talent, is it?

No one (that I ever heard) complained about the production Trotz got out of the Big Guns back in the Paul Kariya era. Trotz got an 110 point season out of the guys, and there’s at least one Original Six franchise that has yet to achieve an 104 (let alone 110) point season (TOR). CHI and NYR have only hit 110 points once each. [In other words, 110 is really, really hard to reach]

Find me a guy that can do better than Trotz with the players Trotz has to work with, and I will (probably literally) eat my shoe. No, he’s not perfect, but most of the complaints against him are complete and utter rubbish, coming from people who wouldn’t be placated if he brought home the Cup four years out of five. Be realistic, and look on the bright side.

The best defense is a good defense.

by Smashvillain on Apr 3, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Different systems.

All 3 definitely left the preds and started playing for teams that use systems that make offense much easier. If you look at Peverley’s P/G average Here, then in ATL, and now in BOS a big increase is easily noticed in ATL.
But…
This will be the first time any of them sees the playoffs since leaving, and that is due to Pevs being traded to another good team. The systems in EDM, ATL, and FLA make offense much easier for the players, but it also makes the Wins column extremely slim.
So really this comes down to an easy decision:
Would you rather have those 3 guys performing at the level they are/were with the non-playoff teams, or
would you rather the predators see the post season almost every year?
Personally I like watching the playoffs every year, even if we don’t get past the 1st round.

an interesting study may be how many ‘all-star’ offensive players were developed on playoff teams? Somehow DET manages to do this, but i can’t think of many other teams that do so.

Keys to the game: GF>GA

by flyalder on Apr 1, 2011 3:08 PM EDT reply actions

Is this really what it comes down to?

So really this comes down to an easy decision:
Would you rather have those 3 guys performing at the level they are/were with the non-playoff teams, or
would you rather the predators see the post season almost every year?

Man, you say some crazy stuff sometimes flyalder.

And the point is that if the offensive system changed then we could score more goals while having a minimal impact on team defense.

by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Apr 1, 2011 4:34 PM EDT reply actions

what system is that?

because it is not the system those 3 teams use, that has allowed those 3 players to produce at the level they have. So what system is it that would be conducive to more goal scoring, while not impairing the team defense?

Keys to the game: GF>GA

by flyalder on Apr 1, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Probably the one where you have the forwards play more offense and less defense!

And if its not the system that’s allowed those players to score more, then what is it?

by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Apr 1, 2011 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions

i said it was the p.o.s. system in ATL, FLA, and EDM letting the players score more. it’s also that system that keeps those teams from ever seeing the playoffs.

Probably the one where you have the forwards play more offense and less defense!

first of all, really descriptive. secondly, how does that not effect the team defense?

Keys to the game: GF>GA

by flyalder on Apr 1, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

And the point is that if the offensive system changed then we could score more goals while having a minimal impact on team defense.

Whoa, there. Now you are making outrageous claims, and that is an objective fact.

The best defense is a good defense.

by Smashvillain on Apr 1, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions

So much wrong with this analysis.......

Besides the point already brought up about throwing Fiddler and Nichol into the mix to help the stats being used to bolster the argument being made (which begs the question: who ever complained about losing either one them for their scoring ability?), this analysis misses the bigger point that is brought up by some of us (aka “the haters”) about Peverley, Jones & Santorelli: why did we get so little in return for them, primarily Jones & Peverley? We got absolutely nothing for two guys who are at least decent secondary type goal scorers! That we moved all 3 of them isn’t the big issue (at least not for me), it’s that we couldn’t even get back mid-round draft picks for them. Poile did a very poor job in just letting them go for nothing in return.

But I have to address another point flylander made that is inaccurate, that being that the Panthers have a more open type of offense than we do, thus why Santo put up good numbers with them this season. Umm, Florida is behind us in GF this season, exactly how does that correspond to having a more offensive scheme than the Preds do (or any other team for that matter?). C’mon, you have to stop pulling things out of thin air like that!

The bottomline is, we only have so much room on the roster, so we needed to move some of those players. But to only get a 4th round pick for all 3 of them combined is a poor job by our GM. I’ve said it before, but if Poile obsessed on forwards the way he does on Dmen and goalies, we wouldn’t be sitting at 25th in league scoring.

by Grizzledbear on Apr 2, 2011 1:59 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

try learning to read

i said they play the game in a way that “make offense much easier for the players”. As in, point production will be easier for individual players, but that does not mean that team numbers, like the ‘goals for’ stat you referenced, should be higher.
Did you watch the preds versus EDM games? Anyone who watched those games should know that EDM played a wide open offensive game, and yet there are plenty of reasons why both EDM and FLA would have lower team wide goal production.

Keys to the game: GF>GA

by flyalder on Apr 2, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice try, bud.

The Panthers do not play a more open type offensive game than almost any team in the league. It was just another off-based attempt by you to justify a position that has no basis in reality.

by Grizzledbear on Apr 2, 2011 4:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

wtf jerk?

prove it asshole. instead of just dismissing something because it doesn’t support your ignorant opinion try actually proving it.

because reality is that both EDM and FLA play relaxed defensively allowing players opportunities to create offense more easily. this is exemplified by the fact that both teams are in the bottom 10 in the league in shots against per game, and the horrendous +/- of most of the players on both teams. Heck, Vokoun has to be in 8th place in save% leaders (6th among goalies with more than 40 games) for FLA to come in at 14th in GA/G, only ANA is worse with a goalie in the top in in Save% leaders that has played 49 games or more. just a few RELEVANT stats proving that FLA isn’t exactly thinking about defense and allowing their players easier opportunities to create offense.

BTW, if you really want to see an argument with no basis in reality look at yourself. at least i use relevant stats to back up my argument, unlike team based goals for.

Keys to the game: GF>GA

by flyalder on Apr 2, 2011 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

You are a loser.

Why the staff at OtF hasn’t thrown you off this board is amazing. Easy to be an internet tough guy though, isn’t it? Maybe the reason Florida gives up a lot of SOG is because they stink, did that ever enter your peanut sized brain? We give up a lot of SOG, does that make us a run and gun team? You’re a no-nothing clown, take a hike!

by Grizzledbear on Apr 2, 2011 11:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I wasn’t even trying to be tough. you were just acting like the names I called you. We are in the top half of the league in SA/G. FLA is the 6th worse in the league.

at least I am intelligent enough to know that it would be a know-nothing clown. Now who has the peanut sized brain? Answer: It is the guy who resorted to just attacking the other person instead of actually trying to disprove their claim. Hell, what you were originally attacking wasn’t even the point I made, but the one you tried twisting into something different that you could ridicule.

Keys to the game: GF>GA

by flyalder on Apr 3, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

So a 1.5 differential in shots allowed per game is the difference between an offensive oriented system and a tight defensive system? It’s the irresponsible use of statistics in the way you continually use them that makes you look so foolish. Try using some commonsense for a change instead of relying on statistics that you can’t put into a logical context. Any Florida Panther fan would laugh at you if you suggested that they play an uptempo type of game.

by Grizzledbear on Apr 3, 2011 1:18 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

i NEVER said they play an uptempo game

Again you change what i have said to something you can ridicule. at this point i can’t tell if you are purposefully being a jerk, or are too unintelligent to read and debate with what i have actually said.

maybe i have represented the stats irresponsibly by not spelling things out for some people to understand. the high shots against/game, goals against/game, exceptional number by Vokoun, and horrendous +/- of the majority of the players (especially some of their players with more points) paint the picture of a team that often sacrifices defensive positioning in an attempt to push the offense. IDK how much of the Panthers games you have actually watched, but whenever i see them i see a team that often has 1 or more forwards cherry picking while the puck is in the Defensive zone, back-checking lazily giving up a plethora of odd man rushes, and often out of defensive position in the Dzone trying to force a turnover but leaving a man wide open for a pass.

and before you even do it: I am NOT saying they play a “open type offensive scheme” or that they are a “run and gun” team or that they “play an uptempo type of game” or any other BS you would like to attempt at claiming that i have said. I am saying that, in their system, it seems acceptable for players to be out of Defensive position making it easier for them to gain offensive positioning on their opponents and thus making it easier for the players who do this to score more goals. And I do not know how i could spell it out for you any easier than that.

you still have yet to prove that my original statement, that the way the panthers play makes offensive production easier for individual players, to be false. all you do is attack the person and not the claim.

Keys to the game: GF>GA

by flyalder on Apr 3, 2011 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Your exact words.....

“Started playing for teams that make offense MUCH easier”. Nobody put words in your mouth, you just once again made a statement that you can’t back up. None of these stats that you love to throw around do anything to make your point, it’s just complete speculation on your part that you want others to except as facts. Sorry, but it doesn’t work with me.

But you can always tell when someone’s argument has run aground when they have to resort to using foul language. Not wasting my time arguing with a dishonest, foul mouthed person like you.

by Grizzledbear on Apr 3, 2011 1:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions