Nashville Predators' playoff fortunes could hinge on faceoff success

by Dirk Hoag on Apr 5, 2011 12:43 PM EDT in Statistical Analysis

One issue that has dogged the Nashville Predators in playoffs past has been their inability to win faceoffs consistently. Last year, their 12th-ranked performance among playoff teams contributed to their 1st-round loss, and against Detroit in 2008, they were outright dominated, particularly when the Preds were on the power play.

So how do things look as we head towards the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs? Yes, we know that Jerred Smithson is one of the best in the NHL on the dot, but what about the rest of the crew?

Follow after the jump as we detail how teams across the league compare in a variety of faceoff situations, and dig deep into how the various Preds perform...

Tonight the Preds take on the Atlanta Thrashers at Bridgestone Arena, while Friday closes out the home portion of the regular season schedule against Columbus. Take the OTF Discount to save money on Nashville Predators tickets for these games!

First, let's take a look at overall team performance with splits for even strength, power play, and penalty killing work (click any of the column headers to sort on that value):

Team	EV	PP	SH	Total Win%
Vancouver Canucks	54.6%	59.7%	54.3%	55.1%
San Jose Sharks	53.2%	58.8%	54.3%	54.0%
Detroit Red Wings	51.9%	54.8%	51.6%	52.2%
Florida Panthers	51.8%	56.3%	47.8%	51.9%
Washington Capitals	50.8%	54.5%	55.9%	51.7%
Boston Bruins	51.9%	51.4%	49.9%	51.6%
New Jersey Devils	50.8%	59.0%	49.1%	51.5%
Phoenix Coyotes	52.4%	50.9%	45.6%	51.4%
Columbus Blue Jackets	50.8%	54.4%	51.3%	51.3%
Los Angeles Kings	50.4%	57.2%	48.3%	50.9%
Ottawa Senators	51.3%	51.4%	47.1%	50.8%
Minnesota Wild	50.3%	54.3%	50.3%	50.7%
Chicago Blackhawks	50.3%	52.8%	49.5%	50.5%
Colorado Avalanche	50.6%	56.5%	43.6%	50.4%
Toronto Maple Leafs	49.6%	54.5%	51.4%	50.4%
Tampa Bay Lightning	51.1%	49.1%	46.8%	50.3%
New York Islanders	50.2%	52.4%	48.2%	50.2%
Philadelphia Flyers	49.9%	56.4%	45.9%	50.2%
League Average	50.0%	52.7%	47.3%	50.0%
Nashville Predators	50.2%	51.8%	47.3%	50.0%
Dallas Stars	50.6%	49.6%	45.1%	49.8%
Montreal Canadiens	49.8%	48.1%	47.4%	49.3%
Pittsburgh Penguins	50.4%	51.8%	39.2%	49.2%
Atlanta Thrashers	48.5%	52.1%	46.0%	48.7%
Calgary Flames	48.0%	50.8%	44.0%	47.9%
Buffalo Sabres	47.3%	50.2%	49.4%	47.9%
Anaheim Ducks	47.9%	50.5%	44.6%	47.9%
New York Rangers	47.5%	52.9%	41.5%	47.5%
St. Louis Blues	48.5%	45.2%	41.8%	47.5%
Carolina Hurricanes	44.2%	47.9%	42.7%	44.5%
Edmonton Oilers	44.8%	48.0%	38.3%	44.3%

As regards the Nashville Predators, the note of concern here is that all of their fellow Western Conference playoff contenders (outside of Anaheim) are better than them on the faceoff dot, with the division leaders Vancouver, Detroit & San Jose being the three best teams in the entire league.

As for some of the individual Preds? Let's see how they fare. The following table breaks down individual faceoff numbers (winning percentage and number of faceoffs taken) by situation, and which part of the ice was involved:

	Even Strength			Power Play			Penalty Kill
	Off. Zone	Neutral	Defensive	Off	Neu	Def	Off	Neu	Def	Total
Jerred Smithson	58.2%	65.0%	55.7%	45.5%	71.4%	100.0%	62.5%	69.0%	46.1%	57.1%
	170	214	386	11	7	1	8	29	154	980
Nick Spaling	52.6%	51.3%	52.5%	33.3%	66.7%	0	0.0%	68.4%	48.1%	51.2%
	114	117	120	3	3	0	6	19	108	490
Joel Ward	44.7%	57.1%	52.0%	64.0%	40.0%	100.0%	0.0%	42.9%	40.7%	49.7%
	38	7	50	25	5	2	2	7	27	163
Mike Fisher***	46.7%	48.0%	48.9%	51.9%	65.2%	33.3%	33.3%	23.5%	50.5%	48.4%
	259	383	276	133	23	6	6	17	93	1196
David Legwand	48.7%	45.5%	44.6%	47.7%	58.3%	100.0%	40.0%	47.1%	43.4%	46.3%
	187	292	184	44	12	1	5	17	53	795
Cal O`Reilly	43.9%	44.8%	50.4%	47.4%	47.1%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	60.0%	46.5%
	148	154	113	57	17	1	1	1	5	497
Team Totals	48.8%	50.2%	51.3%	50.4%	53.4%	78.6%	35.5%	54.8%	46.4%	50.0%
	1080	1273	1226	357	73	14	31	93	386	4533

***Mike Fisher's numbers include his work with Ottawa before being traded to Nashville. I included Cal O'Reilly here in case he's able to play, and left out Marcel Goc. The totals line represents all of Nashville's faceoffs.

One area available for potential improvement with the Predators is how they do on the power play. Teams in general win 52.7% of their Power Play faceoffs (due, presumably, to having that additional man on the ice to help win puck battles), but the Preds underperform in that regard (51.8% total on the PP). Mike Fisher's numbers aren't too far off that pace, but David Legwand and Cal O`Reilly's are quite poor.

One thing I've argued for in the past is a situational substitution; bringing in Jerred Smithson for a power play faceoff at the expense of a winger, so he can take the draw and then come off the ice for a quick change. This kind of move could especially be used in the 2nd period, when the team bench is nearer the offensive zone, allowing the change to be made more quickly.

Would this amount to a huge difference in team performance? Not likely, but with teams looking for any edge possible in the playoffs, it's an idea worth considering. Teams are used to putting their best faceoff man out there for the key defensize zone draws, but the ones in the offensive zone are worth winning, too. To quote Behind the Net from a couple years ago:

...more than 10% of all the goals in the NHL during the 2003-04 season were allowed within 20 seconds of a team losing a face-off in its own defensive zone. Overall, that means that one out of every 40 lost face-offs resulted in a goal in the next 20 seconds. In a league where teams score just 2.5 goals per game, that makes a significant difference.

Gabe's analysis argues that winning or losing a faceoff in either end of the ice is far more significant than in the neutral zone. That being the case, it's worth not just looking at how to leverage Smitty on the power play, but perhaps to spare him some of those neutral zone draws in favor of work in both the offensive and defensive ends. I think we see some of that already being done (note how David Legwand's workload is weighted towards neutral zone faceoffs; he may be the Preds' worst regular faceoff man), but the question now is whether this specialization might be applied in the offensive zone.

It's all about getting the most out of the tools you have available, and Jerred Smithson's faceoff-winning skills could provide a boost to an offense which, despite solid recent performance, remains the largest area of concern as to whether the Preds will finally make a deep playoff run.

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Comments

Great stuff Dirk...

Great timing too…@PredsNHL just tweeted pics of the guys working on face-offs

"Bartender! Something on ice!" - Neil Everett

by EastTNPredsFan on Apr 5, 2011 1:05 PM EDT reply actions

One thing I’ve argued for in the past is a situational substitution; bringing in Jerred Smithson for a power play faceoff at the expense of a winger, so he can take the draw and then come off the ice for a quick change. This kind of move could especially be used in the 2nd period, when the team bench is nearer the offensive zone, allowing the change to be made more quickly.

About 10 years ago, when I was playing basketball in the NBA (that’s the Nashville Baptist Association; I was the Presbyterian-to-be-named-later), I was the tallest guy in the league by a good three or four inches, so my coach would send me out to jump center and then immediately substitute me.

"I don't know who this 'J.R. Lind' is." -- George Plaster
Inventor of the AMTWBC meme
Proud member of The Frozen Chosen

by JRTheByLineGrinder on Apr 5, 2011 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

you always crack me up!!!!

I'm sent here by the chosen one

by Creeping Death on Apr 5, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Funny...

We see these kinds of substitutions all the time in the defensive end. Trotz will send out an extra center (usually Smithson), and once the team breaks out into center ice, he comes off for an offensively-oriented winger.

Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter, or join our site on Facebook!

by Dirk Hoag on Apr 5, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Yet more ways that the Oilers rank last or nearly dead last. Just wonderful.

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on Apr 5, 2011 1:45 PM EDT reply actions

Legwand

I remember his faceoff stats were putrid early in the year. Have they improved as the season progressed and moved up to the 1st line?

In search of a silver lining.

by Griz-ATL on Apr 5, 2011 2:00 PM EDT reply actions

According to this Alex Sulzer is 100 percent on faceoffs (I’d love to know when and why he took that draw – I don’t remember).

Now, I KNOW this sample size is sort of small, but if you trend that percentage out, he’s the best face-off man in the history of everything of all-time ever. Doesn’t this prove that Poile and Trotz are stupid for trading him and the Preds should have kept Alex Sulzer because he is the best face-off guy on the team?

This statistical analysis passes the eye test.

"I don't know who this 'J.R. Lind' is." -- George Plaster
Inventor of the AMTWBC meme
Proud member of The Frozen Chosen

by JRTheByLineGrinder on Apr 5, 2011 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs

This statistical analysis passes the eye test.

but it doesn’t pass the smell test!

by Griz-ATL on Apr 5, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions

It actually doesn't pass any test

Sulzer’s face-off win was recorded in error. It was February 5 v. DET and Smithers took (and won) the draw.

"I don't know who this 'J.R. Lind' is." -- George Plaster
Inventor of the AMTWBC meme
Proud member of The Frozen Chosen

by JRTheByLineGrinder on Apr 5, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

so you are saying he is like the government? got somebody else to do the work and then took the credit for it?

I'm sent here by the chosen one

by Creeping Death on Apr 5, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Listen, this old system of yours could be on fire and I couldn’t even turn on the kitchen tap without filling out a 27b/6… Bloody paperwork.

So, my tactic with conservation of apex predators is to get people excited and take them to where they live.
~Steve Irwin
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer

by cisar on Apr 6, 2011 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

D’oh, a 27b-6. Now I have to fill out a bloody 27b-6 on that!

So, my tactic with conservation of apex predators is to get people excited and take them to where they live.
~Steve Irwin
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer

by cisar on Apr 6, 2011 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Question:

What defines a faceoff win?

I ask because if it’s defined by which center happens to make contact with the puck, it seems like an irrelevant stat. On the other hand if it’s defined by which team actually gains control of the puck it, it seems like the stat is not really attributable to the center, but rather on the player battling for the puck.

"Get to the Choppa!"

by PredHead on Apr 5, 2011 4:47 PM EDT reply actions

It’s based on which team gets possession of the puck, so yes, that means it’s not solely driven by the center’s efforts. Short of diagramming each FO to adjudge which player won/lost the battle, this is the best we can do (and it tends to be a pretty good measure).

Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter, or join our site on Facebook!

by Dirk Hoag on Apr 5, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions