Does Shea Weber deserve the Norris Trophy?
by Dirk Hoag on Apr 7, 2011 5:01 PM EDT
in Nashville Predators Analysis
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As the NHL regular season winds down, hockey writers around North America are filling out their ballots for some of the major awards to be handed out in Las Vegas at the league's annual gala in June. The Norris Trophy is decided upon by the members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association (those that are not boycotting the vote this time), and while many scribes are penciling in Detroit's Nicklas Lidstrom as the favorite to win his 7th(!) title as the NHL's top defenseman, I think once you really look at the details, Nashville's Shea Weber makes the stronger case this year.
Follow after the jump as we break down the candidacy of the league's top blueliners...
First, a bit of background - while of course this is a site devoted to Nashville Predators coverage, I'm originally from Detroit. I've watched Nick Lidstrom's entire career, and believe him to be the best defenseman I've ever seen (my hockey fandom began shortly after the Bobby Orr days). Lidstrom doesn't just play hockey, he orchestrates the game. But, after reading The Hockey News' pick from the other day, I took a deeper look, and it appears that Father Time is taking his toll.
The following table details some of the numbers representing what five leading candidates have done over the course of the season:
| Player | Basic Stats G, A, +/- |
ES/PK/PP TOI |
Rel Corsi |
Rel Corsi QualTeam |
Relative Corsi |
5-on-5 Pts/60 |
5-on-4 Pts/60 |
4-on-5 GA/60 |
| Zdeno Chara | 14G 29A, +31 | 19:28/2:49/3:08 | 1.02 (15th) | 2.43 (8th) | +11.3 | 1.08 | 2.52 | 7.03 |
| Nicklas Lidstrom | 16G 46A, -3 | 16:40/2:42/4:07 | 1.75 (1st) | -1.05(108th) | -7.0 | 0.89 | 6.67 | 6.97 |
| Shea Weber | 16G 31A, +7 | 19:33/2:08/3:40 | 0.91 (20th) | 1.79 (11th) | +6.9 | 1.10 | 3.24 | 4.34 |
| Lubomir Visnovsky | 18G 49A, +17 | 19:44/0:24/4:10 | 0.93 (19th) | 3.97 (2nd) | +15.1 | 1.42 | 4.78 | 5.64 |
| Keith Yandle | 11G 48A, +11 | 19:34/0:44/4:03 | 0.62 (43rd) | -0.75 (105th) | +2.4 | 1.24 | 4.05 | 8.73 |
The rankings, where noted, are among the 116 defensemen with at least 60 games played, and 15:00 or more of 5-on-5 ice time per game. Advanced data from Behind the Net.
Not the same old Slick Nick
Now, yes, I understand that Plus/Minus is probably the most low-brow, overrated hockey stat out there, but Lidstrom's -3 caught my eye. After all, this would mark the 1st time in his 19 NHL seasons that he will finish on the negative side of this measure, unless things turn dramatically over the next few days. That led me to look at the advanced numbers, and what surprised me even further was Lidstrom's poor Relative Corsi value, which is a good measure of how the flow of the game changes during that player's ice time. In a nutshell, that number highlighted above says that when Lidstrom is on the ice in 5-on-5 play, the balance of Total Shots (shots on goal, plus missed & blocked shots for your team, minus those fired by the opponent) shifts by 7 shots per 60 minutes against the Red Wings. That's really poor, and a huge reversal from his +10.6 figure from the 2009-10 season, and +4.4 from the season before that.
There is some context to be added to those numbers. Lidstrom's quality of competition is very tough (like most of the guys above), but in another change from previous season, his quality of teammates has turned sharply negative - in other words, he isn't playing alongside Brian Rafalski and other leading lights as much as he used to. That doesn't excuse the precipitous drop in Relative Corsi, but it explains away perhaps a small slice of it.
Lidstrom's outstanding offensive results are driven in large part by power play work, but in 5-on-5 play (which represents over 75% of playing time), he's just not driving things like he used to, not even close. If he wins the Norris Trophy this year it will be due to the incredible reputation he's built up over time, not really his performance this season. It's been good, but it's a big stretch to call it best in the league.
Nit-picking the rest of the pack
- The gargantuan Bruin Zdeno Chara is having a typically well-rounded season, but those penalty killing numbers are pretty awful.
- Visnovsky and Yandle are both having breakout campaigns, but are more offense-only type of blueliners. Neither plays even 1 minute per game on the PK.
The Case For Shea
In his first season as captain of the Preds, Shea has pretty much put the team on his back at various points along the way, leading the team in scoring until just recently. He plays against the tough opponents, he drives the flow of the game in a positive direction consistently, and is a force both on the power play and penalty kill. He delivered a standout performance at the NHL's All-Star Weekend, coming close to toppling Chara for the Hardest Slapshot, and led all skaters with 4 assists and a +6 rating in the All-Star Game (the first blueliner with 4 assists in the ASG since 1985).
And, let's not forget, he does all this while playing a very physical style, but not actually taking very many penalties (he's up to only 56 this year). Here's a typical smash which he put on Loui Ericksson of the Dallas Stars:
And don't forget that thundering slap shot, which has goalies around the league shaking their heads:
Weber's game has developed steadily over the years, and after a 2009-10 campaign which raised eyebrows around the NHL (not least due to his performance at the Olympics), he's followed through with even stronger results this season. You'd be hard pressed to find another defenseman who contributes in so many different ways to his team's cause, and as a result, he has the Preds contending for home-ice advantage in the playoffs, confounding outside predictions that mostly had them missing out.
He's pretty much done everything you can do on the ice to establish himself as the best all-around defenseman in the game - but have enough hockey writers around the league paid attention? That's my big concern.
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No
I love shea, but he played too poorly when Suter was out of the lineup. Suter is the better defensemen out of that duo.
KEVIN ALLEN AGREES
at least about suter being the better defensive defensman. i dont think weber will win this year. he should certainly be on the ballot. if things had gone better w/ suter out of the lineup you could make a really compelling arguement then.
Weber is awesome!
But Suter is better than him, in my opinion, so how’s he gonna win it?
Agree with D_A
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Apr 7, 2011 5:18 PM EDT reply actions
Solution: Shea wins it this year, Ryan next year.
"Nothing." - Tuukka Rask, after being asked what he saw on Shea Weber's game winner in overtime.
Suter's never gonna win it.....
……with Weber as his partner on the Preds. Cough-we’re gonna trade Weber this offseason though-Cough.
But he’s so smooth, confident and good with the puck. Especially when in his own zone. And him and Weber are a GREAT pairing. IMO, his great defensive prowess makes Weber look better defensively than he really is.
On the other hand, his offense is not tremendous. It’s pretty good. I’d like to see Ellis get his butt up here and run the PP…then we’d have the best three defensemen in the league instead of just the top pair.
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Apr 7, 2011 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
No
Basically Weber is not even the best d-man on the Preds let alone the NHL. I like Chara, Yandle and Visnovsky I would like any of those to win over Lindstrom but I find that unlikely. Weber is a great D-man but does not deserve this award but hey if he gets a Stanley cup to go along with his gold medal for back to back years that would not sound bad?
I like Chara, Yandle and Visnovsky I would like any of those to win over Lindstrom
….
http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8475239
Nah, Lindstrom’s better.
The best defense is a good defense.
Lidstrom’s quality of competition is very tough (like most of the guys above)
It’s not tough “Like most of the guys above” It’s NOTICEABLY tougher. By a lot.
Visnovsky and Yandle don’t play meaningful PK, throw them out completely. You can’t have a league’s best defenseman who doesn’t play PK.
I just think that it’s hilarious that, for the only things people keep nit-picking about Lidstrom’s stats and what’s wrong with them, they have to consistently look at the most-heavily-influenced team stats. Chara certainly has nice stats playing with Suter, in front of Rinne, and with a more defensive system, doesn’t he?
Defensemen have almost zero control over their own Corsi.
For the record, my ballot would be 1. Lidstrom 2. Weber 3. Chara
by J.J. from Kansas on Apr 7, 2011 5:38 PM EDT reply actions
Chara certainly has nice stats playing with Suter, in front of Rinne, and with a more defensive system, doesn’t he?
Derp…
Correct that to “Weber” please…
by J.J. from Kansas on Apr 7, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
*Weber certainly has nice stats playing with Suter, in front of Rinne...
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Defensemen do have control over their Corsi, I’d think, but yeah, limited. Lubo has such great Corsi because RPG can play offense after he gives them the puck.
Comparison (ES only)
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 7, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Dirk, have you thought...
…about compiling and/or showing Suter’s stats as a comparison?
Would be pretty interesting to see.
David Singleton w/ HockeyIndependent
Great article.......but....
You left out that he rocks a beard better than Lindstrom could on his best day drinking Rogaine milkshakes….
Spelling Error
haha did not catch that your right… I want Lindstrom over Lidstrom! Anything to keep a Red Wing from winning another award?
OOPS
Meant to hit reply to the previous post I had… still getting used to this comment stuff.
As noted above, Lidstrom’s QComp is out of control. He’s not playing just marginally tougher minutes, he’s run away from everyone in the league that doesn’t play for the Rangers (I’d never realized how aggressively Torts matches his lines. NYR is toast without Callahan).
I also think you undersell the difference in the quality of teammates. Suter is a stud in his own right (And Burton knows I think he’s the better of the two), Brad Stuart isn’t close. You try to rely on the Rel Corsi to overshadow this, saying that drop is worse than the credit he gets for the tough minutes and poorer linemates. But you ignore the fundamental part of the stat, the “relative” part. It’s not a stat that a player has a whole lot of control over. Your teammates have a huge influence on that. When Nick is off the ice, leaving the weaker competition for either Zetterberg or Datsyuk’s line (or both, but we’ll assume Nick gets the benefit of playing with one of those lines). Those guys then in turn slaughter the opposition. You ignore that Nick is still a positive Corsi. Even given his unforgiving usage, his team is still on the right end of the ice more than the wrong end. He just looks negative in Rel Corsi because he’s competing against the rest of the league leading offense. He may not be the best he’s ever been, but for my money he’s still better than anyone else.
When Shea is off the ice, who exactly is NSH throwing out to fight against his Corsi numbers? I’m not trying to dog the Preds F corps, but I think any neutral observer would agree that it’s not really comparable to what DET puts out while Nick is on the bench.
You’d be hard pressed to find another defenseman who contributes in so many different ways to his team’s cause
They aren’t laying all around, but there’s a few. Lidstrom happens to be one. Which way does Shea help NSH that DET wouldn’t claim Nick does, and better? Hits. The physical nature of Weber is the one way you could try to make that case, but is it really all that important? For one, the big hitters are going to take themselves out of the play looking for that hit. It just comes with the territory. Those are costs that, even if controlled, have to be kept in mind. But even further, in today’s NHL hitting is all about the forwards. Yeah, everyone wants that big physical D, but if you look at the list of hits leaders in the league it’s dominated by forwards, despite the fact that those guys all play fewer minutes than any of the top 4D. Hitting is an offensive tactic; it’s how you develop a forecheck. Of course you want D to finish a hit if it’s there, but skating and puck skills are far more important in today’s game. D hitting is one of the more overrated qualities in the game, but I’m not taking anything from the entertainment value of it.
I could say all that, or I could just point out that any argument that has to invoke the All Star game is an inherent loser.
First Round Exit! (Clap Clap ClapClapClap) First Round Exit!
by Rob Parker on Apr 7, 2011 6:29 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
BUT
but, F&B, can Lidstrom do this?
"Nothing." - Tuukka Rask, after being asked what he saw on Shea Weber's game winner in overtime.
there are likely similar clips
of weber standing around when Kane and Hossa scored THE goals last year.
True, it was last year, so it probably doesn’t factor in this year’s Norris voting.
same goes for All star game and slapshot contest, no?
Weber will get votes for his highlight reel goals and hits. Suter will get ignored.
Its really sutes that has had the better year, though even he should finish behind Lidstrom and Z.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 7, 2011 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you’re overselling the quality of competition. Yes, Lidstrom is playing against the toughs, but he’s basically breaking even. That’s nice, but not what I’d consider Norris-caliber work.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter, or join our site on Facebook!
No worse than drastically underselling quality of competition by saying that his is “like” most of the guys above, when the next closest of the candidates you laid out has a qualcomp only 58% of Lidstrom’s number.
You have to wonder about the candidacy of any of the other four if they were given similar qualcomp and qualteam handicaps.
by J.J. from Kansas on Apr 8, 2011 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Of course
its natural for the article to select and overplay stats that make Weber look better,
and Lidstrom look worse, on a Predators blog. Its only pretending to be fair and balanced. Keep in mind: the argument for Weber relied heavily on his All Star game and Slapshot comp creditionals.
Most of the League considers Lidstrom to be having a great year, relative to other D men. If he had a goalie with Rinne like numbers instead of Howard/Osgood/Macdonald like numbers at EV and on the PK, it may be more clear. However, as Dirk points out, its not a great year for Lidstrom, relative to his own career. I don’t think he should be punished for that though.
Yandle and Visnovsky don’t kill penalties. Its a 3 horse race. Weber is a deserving candidate, but no more than Suter. And either of them should be behind Lidstrom and Chara.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 8, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
It’s sad that Lidstrom also has to be punished in many people’s minds by just how amazing he was earlier. When Chara won the Norris two seasons ago, it was mostly on the strength of the fact that Lidstrom had lost his first step and didn’t live up to his own legend. (and that fact that Chara did really have a great season)
Almost makes me wish that they could have given him 2 Norris trophies per season for how far and above he was to other defensemen when he was setting that standard that he hasn’t been able to live up to since he showed up on the AARP’s radar.
by J.J. from Kansas on Apr 8, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
joke
In laying out the case for Shea, you made a mockery of the whole article by refering to the slapshot contest and the all star game. If those are his feathers in his cap, well he has no business winning.
Lidstrom’s quality of teammate versus Q of C is certainly noticable versus the rest.
Weber isn’t the best defensive defenceman on his team. He may not even be the best to way d man in Nashville. No way he should get more votes than Z or Lidstrom. Also, the Shorthanded GA stat is a reflection of Pekka’s dominance. Not Shea’s.
Weber will be the third in voting behind the two more deserving Norris mainstays in recent years. In fact, Weber is likely to get more votes than the guy who really deserves attention, suter.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 7, 2011 6:36 PM EDT reply actions
Dirk's playing devi's advocate for Shea
and pointing out things that stupid Norris voters might actually have on their minds. I wouldn’t read it as a statement of who he thinks should win…
why are norris voters stupid
because they have never voted for a Pred to win?
Next thing you will be doing is blaming them for our first round exits.
Maybe its because there have been better d-men who have had better years.
Suter and Rinne certainly help out Weber’s numbers. Lidstrom is on the decline but still had a better year, clearly, than everyone not named Chara. Its a two horse race.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 7, 2011 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
He said “stupid Norris voters,” which doesn’t necessarily imply that all Norris voters are stupid, just that there are Norris voters who are stupid.
He may have meant one or the other.
"I don't know who this 'J.R. Lind' is." -- George Plaster
Inventor of the AMTWBC meme
Proud member of The Frozen Chosen
The Velvet Hammer
by JRTheByLineGrinder on Apr 7, 2011 7:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Semantics and tautology
Of course he meant “one or the other.” He couldn’t have meant both or any other option. For all my passing of language, you’d think I wouldn’t have made such an error.
"I don't know who this 'J.R. Lind' is." -- George Plaster
Inventor of the AMTWBC meme
Proud member of The Frozen Chosen
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by JRTheByLineGrinder on Apr 7, 2011 7:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
or for your parsing of it…
So, my tactic with conservation of apex predators is to get people excited and take them to where they live.
~Steve Irwin
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer
Autocorrected, natch. I thought about making a note of it, but I didn’t wanna come off as insecure.
"I don't know who this 'J.R. Lind' is." -- George Plaster
Inventor of the AMTWBC meme
Proud member of The Frozen Chosen
The Velvet Hammer
by JRTheByLineGrinder on Apr 7, 2011 8:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Again
which norris voters are stupid?
I would say that anyone who votes for Weber based on all star game assists and a slapshot silver medal.
Is there any evidence that voters, like homer fans, take those things into consideration?
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 8, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Look how many hockey writers are already anticipating Daniel Sedin winning the Hart, giving the twins back-to-back wins. They love a good story…
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter, or join our site on Facebook!
That
is your evidence that some Norris voters are stupid?
That Daniel Sedin is deservedly being mentioned as an MVP candidate this year? One of the best players in the world having a career year and having clearly one of the top 2-3 seasons in the League.
Is the media supposed to ignore the fact that his brother won last year? And yet, they are supposed to pay attention to the slapshot competition?
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 8, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t twist things around. You asked if writers take such side factors into consideration, and I gave you an example. Greg Wyshynski, for one, has talked up this issue quite a bit in recent days, being concerned that many writers are leaning in Daniel’s direction because of the great story it makes.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter, or join our site on Facebook!
Puckdaddy
He isn’t just the best player on the best team, like the hollow MVPs in other sports often are. They’re the best team because he’s been their best player.
Again, if Perry wins then Perry wins, and I’m fine with that. But I’m voting for Daniel Sedin to win the Hart Trophy, and not just because the back-to-back twins thing is a hell of a story for the NHL. Even if it is.
So one voter (puckdaddy) lays out his reasoning for voting for one of the two most outstanding players (sedin vs perry).
Where do you see anything where any voter says, hey, I think Perry deserves it, but the Back to Back Twins angle will cause me to switch my vote?
In your words, voters are anticipating Daniel Sedin winning the Hart, giving the twins back-to-back wins
Did you consider that they are anticipating Daniel Sedin winning because he deserves it?
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 8, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Greg mentioned this concern in two podcasts over the last week – Slap Shot Radio and the On the DL Podcast, that’s what I’m referring to, not that Perry article.
Personally, I think Daniel Sedin is a decidedly uninspiring choice as MVP. The Canucks are loaded, playing in the worst division in hockey. They probably would have won the President’s Trophy even without his contribution. Too many writers, however, simply hand the Hart to the scoring leader (who has won 6 of the last 7 times).
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter, or join our site on Facebook!
I agree
that folks will think that with Henrik, Kesler and Luongo (Kesler had a MVP movement early in the year),
Vancouver would be dominant anyway.
I disagree with #1 in the League, though. They would be a playoff team, sure, but #1 in the League?
The best argument against Sedin (and for Perry) is that Sedin may be protected (with Malhotra and Kesler) where Perry has got to play the toughies regardless.
Looking over the 6 of 7 Hart trophies you mention, I don’t think the choices are questionable or regretable looking back. Maybe Jagr in 06 (Thornton won) but Thornton made SJ a juggernaut.
I also respectfully disagree with ‘the worst division in hockey’ boosting Sedin. He has 27 points in 23 games against his division, pretty much the same clip he has against the rest of the League.
If anything, Perry may get extra notice for playing in the best division in hockey and playing lights out when his team’s season was on the line (the last month), when the Canucks have played in little meaningful, high impact games all year long. The voting is done now, so Perry’s run is more newsworthy right now, and more important to his team right now, which may help him nab the season-long award.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 8, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you Dirk's emissary now?
I knew its a conspiracy…you Chris and Dirk are all in this thing together.
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Apr 8, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
My knee jerk reaction is also to point out how Weber completely flopped when Suter was out and to say Suter is better.
BUT.
Don’t we have to remember that the Norris Trophy isn’t for best defensive defenseman? It’s for the person who demonstrates the greatest all-round ability in the position.
You can make the case that Suter is better defensively. Sure. But you can NOT make the case that he’s a better all-around defenseman. Suter’s D may be a tad bit better, but Weber’s offensive production is something Suter could never match.
Never?
Weber’s offensive production is something Suter could never match
Weber is the center-point of the power play and the offense in general. That plays a huge role in the points he gets. I wouldn’t say that Suter could “never” match him offensively.
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Apr 7, 2011 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Suter and Weber both have 17 PPP, Weber has 6 more ESP, Suter 12 fewer GP.
Suter can absolutely match Weber’s offense, I think.
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by red army line on Apr 7, 2011 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s one thing to make a pass to someone with a canon of a shot, it’s another thing to have a canon of a shot. Weber has that shot, Suter doesn’t.
by Grizzledbear on Apr 7, 2011 11:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ray Bourque didn't have Weber's Cannon either
No defenseman in NHL history has more goals than he does.
by J.J. from Kansas on Apr 8, 2011 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions
That Al MacGinnis guy did however have a canon like Weber and did pretty well for himself as a Hall of Fame Dman. Just saying. ;)
by Grizzledbear on Apr 9, 2011 2:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree
but at the same time
Suter is a better skater than Weber, a better passer than Weber,
carries the puck better than Weber, and gets the puck out of trouble better (this last point may be debatable, but i feel strongly that the first 3 are not).
The cannon shot is not the only aspect of producing offense.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 8, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Physical
Obviously that’s a big part of Weber’s game, and much like the cannon,
its something Weber has 10 times over on Suter.
Weber also plays with more fire, but some may prefer Suter’s cool, calm persona (I think Weber’s wrath is a huge plus, even if it may cost the occasional penalty. Hulk Angry. Hulk Smash. Its easy to get behind a captain like that).
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 8, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
No, it’s not, but as you alluded to in your other post, that Canon shot isn’t the only thing Weber brings to the table. Weber can win the one on one battles better than Suter can (the one part of Suter’s game that could be better).
by Grizzledbear on Apr 9, 2011 2:45 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Great Case For Shea
He won’t win it but add this to the list: does any player get a wider birth than Shea? I watch a lot of hockey and I think he intimidates the sh^t out of other teams.
No, Weber shouldn't win the Norrish trophy......
but he’s still pretty darn good. :) One of the top 10 Dmen in the game, that ain’t to shabby.
But as for who is better, Weber or Suter, as I’ve said before, if most GM’s could have just one of them, they would take Weber. He just offers so much in every area of the game, while Suter will never give you the offense that Weber does from the point or the physical play. We’re lucky to have both of them.
by Grizzledbear on Apr 7, 2011 8:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Woops, meant Norris of course……..but Shea should win the Norrish trophy, hands down! :D
by Grizzledbear on Apr 7, 2011 8:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Hmmm, George Parros might have something to say about that. :D
by Grizzledbear on Apr 7, 2011 11:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Shea is not Mrs Norris
no way Shea should win. I know he had a GREAT second half but I think don’t think he asserted himself as the best defensemen at any point this year. He started off slow, got even slower without Sutes and by the time he finally took off, I think it was a little too late. He’s a great defensemen and could end up being on the ballot but I don’t think this is his year. That being said, I do not think Lidstrom is the clear cut winner by any means. He’ll probs win though.
I live in the OC.
The one in OH.
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