WWWB: Where Will Weber Be?

by Dunner55 on Jun 16, 2011 2:12 PM EDT

First of all, huge congratulations to the Boston Bruins on their Stanley Cup victory and a big shout out to Bonavista native, Michael Ryder on bringing the cup back to the rock. It was a fantastic series which we all enjoyed, but let’s be honest, once your team makes an early exit, all that’s on your mind is the offseason. Who are we going to draft? What guys will we sign? Is there any free agents that would fit our organization? For the Predators, these questions are even more important heading into this off-season. Read more after the jump.

This year’s pool of unrestricted free agents features lots of 2nd tier defensemen as well as plenty of depth forwards. It is however lacking in scoring, with the exception of Brad Richards, and top end defensemen. It’s for this reason that the RFA market is so appealing to teams this off-season. That and the fact that there has never been two defensemen of Shea Weber and Drew Doughty‘s caliber sitting as RFA’s heading into the summer. So what are the chances these guys sign, and if they don’t is anyone willing to throw out an offer sheet, giving away the farm to get them?

There is no doubt that Shea Weber is the heart, soul and future of the Nashville Predators. He truly defines the organization with his, gritty, no non-sense style. He’s their captain and guidance who has led this team to the playoffs year after year regardless of the lack of “talent” they brought to the ice. Now, as one of the league’s best defensemen and a finalist for the Norris, the man is due for a pay raise. The question is, will Nashville fork out the money to keep their franchise player, and does he even want to stay in the music city?

The Preds have had an internal cap for years. The organization runs on a shoestring budget, however they have been very effective in doing so. This team has a long term strategy in-place that will eventually allow them to compete with a payroll at the cap, but for now, the Preds have to work with what they are given from the owners, and this year’s first round win should give management a few extra dollars to spend. But is it enough to keep Weber around?

I don’t think finding the cash for Weber is the question, it’s more about weighing out the option that if Weber is offered the 7 million he is projected to get, would you be willing to let him go and take the two 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd round picks as compensation? Is there any team out their willing to part with some many prospects for Weber’s services?

The ideal situation here for Preds fans is that Weber signs for something around the $6.5M - $7M mark and demands that the Preds improve the team around him to be a cup contender in the near future. The extra money they save on not having to fork out the 8 million he is worth can be money well spent adding some scoring to this offensively deprived organization. Weber is not a guy that’s going to go for money, he wants a cup and to be a part of a promising organization, an organization like Nashville.

The one thing that does worry me here is that, with the Preds first round pick gone in the Fisher trade, all those draft picks might look very promising, If an offer sheet comes in above the $6,268,176 that gives the Preds 4 picks, including 2 first rounders, it’s going to be extremely tough to turn down. Are their teams out there that would have the cap space for this and willing to part with the picks for a guy like Weber at $6.5M? Sure.

Bieska, Salo and Erhoff are all UFA’s in Vancouver, what if you only re-sign one of these guys and add Weber? They have the depth. Maybe the Sabers are interested? They need someone to mentor Ennis and no offence to Leopold, but he just doesn’t cut it. And how about the Habs? They would love to have a solid number one to play with Suban if they don’t resign Markov.

The market this year is ideal for the Preds. There are lots of teams with money to spend and few players available in the UFA market. Nearly every team has an interest in a guy like Weber, however the picture will become much clearer come July 1st. Once we see who re-signs and who doesn’t, it will give us an indication of which teams may be willing to make a play on Weber.

There’s no doubt it’s a steep price to pay, and we have only seen one offer sheet accepted since the lockout, that being Dustin Penner in 2007. But if there is a player that teams are willing to give up that type of compensation for it’s going to be a guy like Weber. Young, talented, dedicated and hardworking. Hmm that kind of sounds like what the Predators organization prides itself on doesn't it?

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Preds will match on the second tier of compensation...

… but that top level tier? I just don’t know!!!

An offer with a $1,034,249 annual cap hit or less: No compensation

More than $1,034,249 — $1,567,043: Third-round pick

More than $1,567,043 — $3,134,088: Second-round pick

More than $3,134,088 — $4,701,131: First and third-round pick

More than $4,701,131 — $6,268,175: First, second and third-round pick

More than $6,268,175 — $7,835,219: Two first-round picks, a second and third

More than $7,835,219 and higher: Four first-round picks

by djzielin on Jun 16, 2011 2:45 PM EDT reply actions

6.5 max

i want to keep weber and have him sign a long term deal. with several (good ahl) defenseman in the system, but not of weber’s quality, i wonder what will happen. everyone needs to remember how much below the cap we will stay to get max revenue sharing cash. if cube and lomabardi retire, sully isn’t re-signed, and some team throughs a truckload of cash at ward, the money is there.

by predwheels on Jun 16, 2011 7:49 PM EDT reply actions

Good post!

Always like when someone thinks things thru, even if I may disagree on a point or two. As the previous poster said, the Preds will match up to the 7 to 7.5M range, its above that range that could get dicey. But as has been pointed out by some previously, there really aren’t many teams with both the picks and effective cap space to throw an offer sheet at Weber. Honestly, I’m not overly concerned about it happening, but I do acknowledge that it is a possibilty.

And someone asked about who we should draft (I love the draft!)! If he’s still around at #38, I like Stefan Noesen out of Plymouth of the OHL.

Funny that you mentioned Ryder in your post because he’s a guy I would take a look at this summer as a UFA signing. Have a feeling being an eastern Canadian like Ryder is that he may prefer to play on the east coast, but I’d throw an offer at him and see what happens. I do have a feeling that Poile may make a play for Upshall though. We know Poile tried to get him at the trade deadline a few years ago from Philly but the Yotes got him and we know how Poile likes his draft picks. Could do worse than Upshall I suppose and he at least finally played a full season last year. Not my first choice of a UFA though.

But the trade route is our best option, IMO. Who is available by way of a trade is always a bit of a mystery. Some talk that Setoguchi might be available for a guy like Franson. I’d do that deal if it was on the table (though I like Franson). But as unrealistic as this may seem, I’d really like to see us make a strong pitch for Parise if things fall apart between him and the Devils (he may just not want to sign with them once he becomes a UFA in 2012, so that could be why a trade is possible). We clearly have the assets to offer up to the Devils (or any other team for that matter). Wilson, Ellis, one of our goalie prospects and maybe even the rights to Radulov for Parise? That would be pretty enticing I would think if NJ can’t get Zach to sign the dotted line. Of course, that leads to the question of “how do you pay Parise, Weber and also Suter and Rinne in 2012/2013”? Well, if (and I stress IF) we could land Parise and get him signed long term, that would be an asset we know we’ll have for awhile. With Rinne becoming a UFA after next season, he could easily command 7+M on the UFA market. Would we (or could we) afford to pay him that much? I suppose so, but if we payout 20M or more on Weber, Rinne and Suter (who should be a more reasonble signing for us during or after the 11/12 season), we can forget about ever having an offense capable of getting us far in the playoffs. I totally respect anyone’s opinion that we need to keep Rinne at all cost, but it has to be acknowledged that, short of trading one of our 4M players that would be very hard to find a buyer for without taking salary back in return for, it would make it terribly difficult to improve our offense to a serious playoff caliber level. Mitch Korn turned Rinne into an all-star goalie, maybe he can do so with one of our other goalies as well.

So anyway, those are my thoughts on all this!

by Grizzledbear on Jun 16, 2011 8:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

As a Canucks fan...

I know Vancouver gets brought up because a) Weber’s from BC, b) homer media/fans like to stir things up and c) after my ‘Nucks sad-sack performance in the finals, we could sure use his combo of grit and skill. While in a ’pipe-dream’ world and from a talent/intangibles standpoint it would be wonderful to have Weber on Vancouver, from a competitive standpoint I want him to stay with the Preds.

IMO, Weber is the face of the Nashville franchise, in the mold of Steve Yzerman for Detroit or Joe Sakic for Colorado, and I think he’s pretty serious about staying in Nashville. From what I’ve seen, Nashville is a great market for hockey and the Preds will only get more popular as they continue to build and succeed. (In terms of Southern hockey markets, I’d say Nashville is akin to Dallas and unlike the Florida teams or the former Atlanta team.) Just my impression, but it seems that’s exactly what’s running through Weber’s mind as the question comes up.

On the question of what he’s worth: the guy may well be the best defenseman in the league. If he’s not, he’s definitely one of the guys in the conversation. From my point of view, it’s between him and Drew Doughty.

From a monetary standpoint, obviously he could command a ton on the open market, but I think he also noticed the depth on Vancouver, and might well be willing to give the Preds a hometown discount. Obviously he’s not going to sign for ~$4.5 mill like most of Van’s D-men, but he’s also significantly better than our best. I do think though that he won’t handicap the team – $5.3-$6.1/yr is a good compromise. (Hopefully he can get Rinne and Suter to follow suit.)

(Please note: the following is simply to compare the value of draft picks. I totally think that Weber belongs with the Preds, and want him to be there for years to come. Also, since the Preds used arbitration, no other team can use an offer sheet, and this is an academic discussion.)

From a draft-pick standpoint, it’s all relative. For the Canucks, who have an atrocious drafting history and are pretty much in win-now mode, two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd (all unproven assets) are completely worth giving up in exchange for arguably the best defenseman in the league. As steep a price as four 1sts is, for the Canucks, even that would be something to think about. On the other hand, David Poile does a terrific job with the draft – those same picks are much more valuable in his hands than in the Canucks’. With the two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd, I think it gives him pause. (Although I still think that you don’t give up a Shea Weber for those picks.) With four 1sts, I think Poile probably pulls the trigger. I’m really torn about whether that would be a good trade in the end, although it does represent quite the haul.

-CC

by Charles Calthrop on Jun 27, 2011 7:40 PM EDT reply actions