Saturday's notes: Time to dig for bargains
by Dirk Hoag on Jul 2, 2011 9:48 AM EDT
in Nashville Predators News
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PrintWhile it was customary to watch the Nashville Predators stand by as free agents criss-crossed the NHL at a furious pace yesterday, fans still had good reason to be disappointed as guys like Marcel Goc and Joel Ward left for greener (in the purely monetary sense) pastures. The real question, of course, is what happens in the weeks ahead, when David Poile typically does some of his best work. Are there players available in trade who might look relatively cheap now, given the increases in salary we're seeing around the league?
Given the bounty of talent on defense within the organization (which you can check from 10-noon today at Development Camp), the currency is definitely available with which to swing a deal and bring in some proven, NHL-caliber help on the wing. What will it cost, however? Ryan Ellis? Roman Josi? Cody Franson?
Stay tuned, it's going to be a long summer!
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Around the NHL
2011 Free Agent List (Official list) - NHL.com
The official list at NHL.com is getting updated as names come off the market, so this is where you should continue to look for bargains. Yes, Jordan Knackstedt is still available!
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A request for bloggers and posters alike.......
If you could attach actual names to these “bargains” that you speculate that we will sign or trade for, it would be great for at least the sake of clarity. It’s easy to just presume some player will skip thru the collective minds of all the other GM’s and fall right into GMDP’s lap, buy who might this be?
Let’s at least face the fact that GMDP really didn’t anticipate the rapid inflation of salaries in the market place this summer due to a 5M rise in the cap. Almost every player that signed yesterday got at least 1M more than he would have gotten just last off-season due to the big rise in the cap. Teams that suddenly had millions more in cap space, both at the ceiling and to meet the cap floor, were able to scoop up just about all the quality players on the first day of free agency. GMDP’s approach may have paid off in previous summers, but the fact is, he got left on the outside looking in this time around.
Trades are all that’s left at this point, but GMDP will have to wow some team with an overwhelming offer at this point to get anyone worth acquiring. For why would any team decide to move a quality forward now when most of them have got their rosters basically set now that the draft is over and they landed whatever UFA’s that they were able to? What team is in cap trouble now that they got an extra 5M cushion thanks to the rise in the cap?
Patience often has it’s virtues, but the saying “he who hesitates is lost” is all to true at times as well. That’s what happened to us yesterday.
Jamie Langenbrunner?
Tim Connolly?
Kyle Wellwood?
Nic Bergfors?
Who knows? It’s impossible to identify bargains when we don’t know the prices. But there are still some good players out there.
That list makes my point all to well. All you have left are way past their prime guys like Langenbrunner (not exactly a top 6 winger these days), a habitually injured player like Connelly and two guys who are known underacheivers. The fact is, once Gagne gets scooped up (probably by the Flyers or Kings), there is nothing left of any value as far as a top 6 forward goes on the UFA market.
Poile waited to long this time around and is now faced with a situation, if indeed he is really interested in getting a top 6 winger, of having to offer up top prospects like Ellis, Josi and Wilson to get that player and that’s an overlooked aspect of all of this. A UFA may cost you more money than you think they’re worth, but they don’t cost you top prospects in the process. Trades do.
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 12:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
By bargain you mean of low value? That’s not a top 6 forward.
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 12:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If we sign Wellwood
Do not by any means tell him where the best burger places are. You’ll love him when he tells you that he plays better 30 lbs overweight.
Connolly is gone. Thank God. Overpaid by the Leafs since they waited like the Preds, but cried uncle first.
Langenbrunner past his prime and will be bitching in no time. Bergfors will go for 3 mil since Gagne went for 3.5 (comparable numbers). 3 mil for that twerp is NOT a bargain.
My free agency preview had several such names, and I plan on doing a followup (probably tomorrow) of who’s left, and who might look attractive from a trading perspective.
I do agree that there are times that you have to hold your nose and wade into the market such as it is, because especially when you rely upon trades to fill your holes, you’ve limited your available choices tremendously (besides having to give up a hockey asset like a prospect, draft pick or player).
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to news, reviews, and deals on hockey equipment and accessories. Catch me on Twitter, or join OTF on Facebook!
Wasn’t really refering to you, Dirk, about not putting names with alleged bargains to be had out there, more to some of the links and other articles/posts I’ve been reading lately. Once one actually looks at what’s left out there, they can see that we really got shutout yesterday.
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 3:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And Gagne just went to L.A.
He might’ve been helpful, too.
Hmm… I wonder what Jan Hlavac is up to these days?
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to news, reviews, and deals on hockey equipment and accessories. Catch me on Twitter, or join OTF on Facebook!
Old Jan would look pretty good about right now, LOL!
I heard Chris Therien, former Flyers Dman, say earlier today that Gagne was close to signing with the Kings, so I’m not surprised on that one. Kings looking pretty good right now.
And we wait…….and wait…….and wait…….
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 3:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
3 names
Griz, stop bellyaching. Here are 3 good RFA’s we could trade Ellis to get:
Brandon Dubinsky. The Rangers have always been more accustomed to signing their talent, not developing it. With the acquisition of Richards, they may be looking for some cheaper talent on the blueline.
Andrew Ladd/Blake Wheeler. New GM/Coach in Winnepeg may be looking to put their fingerprint on the team. This may be an opportunity for them to build “like the Preds”.
As much hatorade as you’re puttin’ out there atm, maybe these names will cheer you up! We are a model franchise in the NHL on how to put together a team. I think everyone else recognizes that as well. I’m gonna cite the Dmen contract prices vs. F prices as my evidence.
unfortunately Franny doesn’t command that kind of return. Ellis is some kind of super-Canadian with all his medals and name recognition.
The use of the word “may” is kind of the key phrase here, isn’t it. I can dream up maybe scenarios too.
Model team this, model team that, we screwed the pooch this time around. But Poile’s Praetorium guard continues on!
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 5:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Kinda reminds me of them geniuses who continue to defend Trotz as a genius to the death.
Eh?
The truth is always the right answer....
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Jul 2, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Wonder what DFTB thinks of the recent proceedings here in Predsville? :D
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 7:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Guess we'll never know....
….do the right thing Dirk.
BRING BACK DFTB!!!
The truth is always the right answer....
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Jul 2, 2011 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe you'll see a lot more development from the blue shirts in the coming years.
I very seriously doubt Dubinsky is going anywhere, he had an absolute top season last year. He played every game with grit, heart and hell, he got some points to show for it too. In other words, he made Torts happy… and nobody makes Torts happy, NOBODY.
Gonna miss you Joel Ward...
Go Predmirals!
Praise GOD!
Preds make a trade!
It's nice to be important, but it's more important to be nice...To some people.
The Preds are still alive.
Brodie Dupont for Andreas Thuresson.
It's nice to be important, but it's more important to be nice...To some people.
40 goals is not out of the question for Brodie, LOL!
Is this guy related to JP?
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 12:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Haha
No, but he should just where number 71 so all they have to do is change a consonant.
It's nice to be important, but it's more important to be nice...To some people.
by jim bob jones on Jul 2, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
You know Nashville
We can never have enough bottom 6 centres\
/minor league trades = time to make jokes
Puck And Punk blog: The only music with enough heart for hockey.
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Didn’t Miettinen sign with a team in Europe already?
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 12:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He's like Drugs
JUST SAY NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Having watched Wild games and interracting with Wild fans, this is one ‘guy’ (and I put that in quotes) we do not want.
Hmmm, what are you alluding to there (“guy” in qoutes?). :D
He’s scored 20 goals once in his 7 year NHL career. Only in Preds speak does that equate to a top 6 forward.
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 4:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
rangers get Richards
So is it possible they need defense? What about (Stephan or Dubinski) for Franson? will more than likely need to add to get the later. This won’t work however they are both centers :/
:(
Sadly, we’ve all been reduced to dream scenarios now. Teams have no reason to give up quality forwards like the ones mentioned above. Maybe if we want to give a kings ransom for them, but that’s doubtful we’ll do that.
I’m sure the Rangers would love to unload Gaborik’s 7M deal on someone though.
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 12:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Give them time, they’ll get it done! :D
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 12:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I say we need to go after Nikolay Zherdev, Curtis Glencross, Tim Connolly, Brendan Morrison, or Milan Hejduk. I now some of these players might be out of our price range, but if we can get just one of these players I would be happy. All of them can somewhat contribute and score. Zherdev might even be a SK74 in the making.
Hejduk and Glencross re-signed with their respective teams a month ago. Connelly is one hit away from joining Lombardi in the bat cave. Could have had Zherdev for a bag of pucks last trade deadline but passed on him, not sure why we would take him now. Morrison not exactly a top 6 forward these days (hasn’t been for quite awhile actually).
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 1:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, I aready have, but what I would do if I were calling the shots would never happen here. Fact is, we missed out on all the top 6 type forwards available, which leaves having to offer up our best prospects in a trade to land a skilled forward. Semin’s name has pooped up as a guy the Caps might look to unload, but he has one year left on a 6M contract that we would have to get extended before we could even think off trading for him. And does a Russian want to play here (or better put, do we want a Russian playing here!).
When you look at the cost of making trades, 3 to 4M on some of the guys that went yesterday doesn’t seem so bad anymore.
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 1:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’m perfectly fine with what has not transpired. From a business perspective, the Preds couldn’t have signed (or shouldn’t imo) any of the players yesterday. Remember, we still need to re-sign Suter and Rinne next year. If given a choice between Leino (or any player signed yesterday) and Suter or Rinne, which would you choose?
Here’s the bottom line: months from now we’ll be looking at basically the same team as right now. We’ll re-sign the RFA’s (hopefully) and Weber. Poile will pluck a few players off the scrap heap. Trotz and staff will glue them together and put up another 100 point season. And we’ll be yelling “Let’s Go Predators” just like always.
In the meantime, guys like Beck, Ellis, Josi, Watson, Smith, Budish and Bourque will continue to develop in Milwaukee and elsewhere. This is what we need to get excited about. This is where our next top-6 forward and D-man is coming from…not the UFA market.
Two problems I see with what your saying here. First is, what garuantee do you have that we can sign Weber, Suter and Rinne? Can we hand out the type of contract Bryzgalov got with Philly to Rinne, or possibly even more than that? Can you ice a competitive team when 20M of your budget is spent on 2 Dmen and a goalie? If spending 3 to 4M on a 2nd line winger is to rich for our blood, how on earth do we keep all three of our star players?
Secondly, none of those forwards in Milwaukee are close to being ready to play up here this season, certainly not in a top 6 role. What do we do in the meantime? Once those kids arrive, you start to lose other players like Fisher, so your really just replenishing your roster, not so much adding to it.
One sure way to fail in any business model is to assume what worked in the past will always work. The market for talent shot up drastically this off-season, kind of like gas prices do. No one wants to pay more than they feel something is worth, but sometimes you have to.
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 1:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What do we do in the meantime? That is the key question. I don’t have a problem overpaying for someone for one or two years. But we can’t afford these 4-9 year deals that were flying around yesterday. See JP Dumont as a perfect example of signing a player for too much money for too many years.
The key to success is to draft well, and have productive players while still on their entry level contracts and their RFA period. Easier said than done.
Another key to success is to not be saddled by contracts of unproductive players for multiple years and too many dollars (e.g. J.P. Dumont). Many of the players signed yesterday will be tomorrow’s J.P. Dumont.
So there needs to be a balance. I think Polie has done a great job avoiding the unproductive contracts – Dumont being the sole exception. But, we all wish he had done a better job drafting top-6 forwards.
So here we are…needing another year or two for our Forward prospects to develop and hoping Poile can plug the holes with scrap heap acquisitions.
IMO, plugging holes with scrap heap acquisitions should not be tolerable anymore. Ryder got 2 years at 3.5M per season, that’s a ballpark we should have been willing to be in. Not all of the contracts thrown out there yesterday were long term deals. GMDP just misread what a feeding frenzy that 5M rise in the cap led to on day one of UFA and were left with an empty shopping cart.
As for drafting forwards, the problem is that we just didn’t draft that many of them with our available 1st and 2nd round selections, and those are the picks that play the most in the NHL on average. Not doing so has put us right where we are at the moment and this past draft only added to the problem.
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 3:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
+1
I’m not more animated cause I’m just terribly disappointed with how this whole thing is going down. We had a ton of momentum after the playoffs and its coming to a screeching halt which is a huge disappointment.
I’m not at all worried about losing Goc or Ward and am only a little worried about SOB leaving. But the fact of the matter is that we don’t have any guys that we can count on to score 20+ goals. Not one is a sure thing. Yet the coach goes on record as saying we don’t need offense cause its defense that wins Cups. How dumb does he think we are? And I agree with you about investing $20M in three defensive guys being a bad idea. In addition, the drafting of a goalie was pretty stupid too…I’ll bet NJ didn’t spend many draft picks on goalies in the 90s and early 00s. Just a hunch.
On the other hand, I also wonder if Poile is holding off on signing somebody because he knows he screwed up by being late on the RFA thing to Kostitsyn, etc. and he knows he’s gonna have to overpay all those guys now?
Fact is, all the guys left are bums and it appears that we’re gonna go with youth. Again, a huge disappointment. Disappointing because as soon as they’re NHL caliber guys, they’re gonna go elsewhere cause we can’t afford them. It seems like a never ending cycle.
Oh well, I guess all the money we save by getting rid of Sully and Dumont is gonna be used on Weber Suter and Rinne. So we can play defense, which wins cups. Yeah right.
PS: This is exactly what pisses me off the most about the Legwand contract. NOW tell me he’s worth $4.5M.
The truth is always the right answer....
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Jul 2, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I guess Leggy can point to what Connelly got today and say “I’m worth more than that”! :D
Knowing how Poile and Trotz basically share the same brain, I seriously wonder if we were ever intending to bring in a top 6 forward in the first place. All Poile’s talk may well have just been for public consumption. Hate to be so callous about it, but it makes me wonder……….
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 5:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Problem is, he's been making that for 4 years now.
You’re adjusting the contract he signed for inflation. So it’s not horrific like it was a couple of years ago. That is, unless you take away his empty net goals, then it’s equally horrifying.
Thanks for answering your own question Sam :)
The truth is always the right answer....
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Jul 2, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I can live with Leggy at $4.5M
But Erat at $6M this upcoming season? Yikes…
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to news, reviews, and deals on hockey equipment and accessories. Catch me on Twitter, or join OTF on Facebook!
I can stomach Erat a little more than Legwand.
Their cap hit is the same I believe and he does more to earn his money IMO.
The truth is always the right answer....
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Jul 2, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I invoke Godwin’s Law, Legwand Corollary.
World Wide Weber.
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer
by cisar on Jul 2, 2011 5:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm not even gonna look that up Cisar.
You’re getting strange in the offseason :)
The truth is always the right answer....
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Jul 2, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
Trotz and staff will glue them together and put up another 100 point season.
Want to bet $1,000 on that? I’m serious.
The truth is neither libelous nor slanderous.
Reason and logic instead of hope and faith.
by shoot the puck on Jul 2, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
If this is the team we’re icing next season, I’m lining up right behind shoot the puck!
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 11:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why didn't you say that in the first place?
Backtracking a little, are we?
Split the difference. Over/under is 97.5 points for the season and I’m taking the under for $1,000, contingent on roster as it is now and including the signing of any of the RFA’s in question over the qualifying offers.
Now, who can we find that we mutually trust to hold the money?
The truth is neither libelous nor slanderous.
Reason and logic instead of hope and faith.
by shoot the puck on Jul 5, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Leafs sign Connelly for 4.75M a season! :o
This may be the most insane contract so far. Good time be an NHL player right now!
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 3:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Theses contracts are lunacy, very bare market left. I think the best trade partner may be Edmonton. They like defenseman which we have plenty of maybe, Hemsky? Definetly not a sniper, But a much needed top 6. Sadly probably wont happen we have the cash so I guess we shall see the next couple weeks,
Take a look at Hemsky’s profile over at TSN, this guys injury report takes up about the whole page! Brule isn’t much better. Some brittle kids they drafted up there.
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 3:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well true Gagne just signed with the kings 2 years/ 7 million. Hes a risk to. Well we are a couple forwards short for sure. Im not even sure why Webere would want to re-sign. I know hes the captain here, But everyone in the west is getting better. With our lack of scoring could be very tough, hes gonna earn his 7 million lol
Im just looking at potential trade partners, I know Hemsky is brittle. We have to take a chance on something
by hitmaneraser21 on Jul 2, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
And that may be why negotiations are not going as quickly as we thought they would based on comments from both camps at the end of the season. If I’m Weber and see what’s taken place (or not taken place) over the last week, I may just take the one year arbitration award and keep my options open for the future.
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 4:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Assuming nothing changes, is this how our forwards shake out? I’m not interested in discussing line combinations, just trying to get to the top 12 plus depth. If that’s the case, the depth scares me, because you know we’ll have injuries. And counting on Wilson, Geoffrion and Halischuk for production is also scary – they’re still young and inexperienced.
Hornqvist, Legwand, Erat
Kostitsyn, Fisher, Wilson
Tootoo, O’Reilly, Geoffrion
Spaling, Smithson, Halischuk
Depth: Beck, Bourque, Budish, Latta, Thang, Flynn, Mueller
Seriously, I have no idea how that group of forwards could get us 200 goals next season combined with Dman scoring.
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 4:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And thats...
If they stay healthy. No protection, no scoring from the 2nd line down. The big if is that Kostitsyn and O’Reilly get signed as these guys at least have a little offense to their game…
Preds are still 10 mil from the cap floor.
Budish is going back to Minnesota, Beck, Latta, Flynn are at LEAST a year away from what I’ve seen of them. The only guys that are viable for a callup are Bourque, Mueller, and maybe Thang.
You’ll probably end up calling up all 3 too since the starting 4 lines are gonna get creamed with no 4th line muscle and the best option on D being Weber. And that’s not gonna happen as much as I would like to see it at least once in a while.
Thank goodness we don’t have bench clearing brawls in this league any longer…….outside of Weber, Tootoo and Fisher, we’d get beaten to a bloody pulp! :o
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 5:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wilson is gonna have a great year this year.
He’s gonna get 30 goals this year as long as Mr. Potatohead doesn’t treat him like a dog again this year.
This crop of forwards is gonna be as good as last year’s. I mean, what are we changing? Ward for Geoffrion? That’s an upgrade if you ask me. Goc for O’reilly? Another upgrade. Wilson for Sully on the top line? Another upgrade.
Leggy on the first line? LOL!
We’ll be as good offensively this year as we were last year. Not very good with a terrible PP again. But I’m not gonna cry in my beer cause I think we’ll be worse than last year.
The truth is always the right answer....
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Jul 2, 2011 5:08 PM EDT reply actions
i’d rather see
wilson-o’reillly-kostitsyn
hornquist-fisher-erat
smithsin-legwand-spalling
halischuck-geoffriob-tootoo
Change out Tootoo for Smithson on the 3rd line......
……and you’ve got a deal!
The truth is always the right answer....
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Jul 2, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
This crop of forwards is gonna be as good as last year’s.
SWFP, I agree with you…except one thing. This current roster has no depth. If there are any injuries, which there will be, who will step in?
I think there was a distinct note of sarcasm in SWFP’s assessment of our forwards. :D
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 7:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not true.
I think they’ll be every bit as capable offensively next year as they were last year.
Which is not very. We’ll be about the same offensively, better defensively (because of youth) and hopefully the D and the G situations stay the same, even though losing SOB is a downgrade defensively.
Adding a top 3 forward is what I want, and it would make us far better. But oh well.
The truth is always the right answer....
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Jul 2, 2011 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s what I meant…….they weren’t that good before and they still aren’t very good. :D
by Grizzledbear on Jul 2, 2011 11:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I hope Andreas Thuresson will be able to step it up this year!
The truth is always the right answer....
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Jul 2, 2011 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Our RFA Fowards
Should all stay here and sign at least a 1 year deal. Were else will they see as much ice time that they are gonna get playing for the predators.
:(
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