Sunday's notes: Shea Weber's arbitration cakewalk
by Dirk Hoag on Aug 14, 2011 10:25 AM EDT
in Nashville Predators News
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PrintWe knew just by looking at the figures involved that Shea Weber took the Nashville Predators to the cleaners in salary arbitration, due in part to what was obviously a half-hearted effort by the team, and its absurdly low $4.75 million proposal.
This morning's hockey links start off with a report of just how one-sided that decision really was, with an inside look at the transcript from the hearing...
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Nashville Predators News
NHL arbitrator sides with Predators' Weber - NYPOST.com
Larry Brooks obtained the transcript from the Shea Weber arbitration hearing, and found that rather than splitting the difference between the player's and team's proposals, it was a landslide victory for Weber. Perhaps more interesting is how he used the salary for comparable players coming up this season, rather than the cap hit on their contracts. At least they've got a deal done for next year (unlike L.A. with Drew Doughty), but still, what a mess this was for the Preds.
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Around the NHL
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I agree with Greg's basic premise here - the Islanders goon-fest against Pittsburgh sparked some pride within their fan base, and sometimes you use whatever it takes to build momentum.
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What to make of Andrei Kostitsyn's complaints about Jacques Martin last week?
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According to ESPN, the NHL franchises with dimmest futures - Puck Daddy
When it comes to prospect rankings, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and ESPN ranks the Preds down near the league bottom.
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A lengthy look at icing call - The Boston Globe
Besides an analysis of what's being tested at the NHL's R&D camp, there's a bit of pondering about the Preds' ability to keep Weber long-term, and what it might take to obtain him in trade.
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Weber arbitration
Finally, an arbitrator who did more than split the difference between a club’s submission and the player’s.
But isn’t that the way these arbitrations are traditionally handled? I’m sure the Preds wouldn’t have thrown out such a lowball figure had they known the process would be different this time.
I kind of agree. They must have thought the arbitrator would "split the difference."
Still, I don’t know what’s going on in that front office anymore. It’s almost like they went with the stupidest comparables they could think of so they wouldn’t have to say anything bad about Shea to his face. Either that or they really didn’t know what they were doing. They couldn’t have thought he was worth that little money or that any neutral third party would think he was not at least as good as Seabrook and Keith. The team didn’t fight this at all, and I can only hope that that’s a good thing in the long term, at least in terms of keeping Shea willing to negotiate over the next months.
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
It seems to me that they either tiptoed around the situation to not hurt Weber’s feelings, or they were just so shocked that it actually got to the point of arbitration that hadn’t even really considered going into the meeting as an option, just as a maybe thing. It’s possible that its a combination of both as well, they didn’t want to strain the relationship as well as they hadn’t really thought they would go to arbitration, that a deal might have been made before. I don’t know, it just seems kinda fishy to me.
by Preds of State on Aug 14, 2011 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
There’s nothing in the process that says it has to be done that way, it’s just typically how it’s played out. The whole exercise was a bit of a charade, as the Preds obviously didn’t plan on playing hardball in the hearing.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to news, reviews, and deals on hockey equipment and accessories. Catch me on Twitter, or join OTF on Facebook!
It could still be a good thing...
The bar has now been set, assuming there’s no hard feelings afterward. Poile has “cleared the deck” and can now put the bean-counters to work and come up with deals with Weber the highest, Suter a bit less, and Rinne down in the $4-5 mil/year range. The Brett Wilson buy-in may help with this a little as well.
Regardless whether we think the Preds can pay them or not, what’s staring the front office right in the face is the fact that these stars are the main attraction! They aren’t going to grow the fan-base or achieve their goal (the Cup) without being able to retain the main draw and core of the team.
It’s going to be tough, but Poile can work with the owners and say “Ok, in any given year – what’s the maximum we can pay for the big three?”. Front and back-loaded deals, while somewhat maligned in the NHL, may be the keys to getting this done. Once those players are signed to long-term deals (at least 5 years), the franchise will have its foundation set. You may have to trade one for a big name forward to make it work, but I think we rather keep our home-grown talent to show the rest of the league that: Yes, the Predators are here to stay.
Hockeymetricians, they're ever so pious. Are they doing real science or confirming their bias?
Front loaded deals are a problem for us.
If, as has been said by some, our full revenue sharing money is dependent on us staying under the cap midpoint in terms of actual dollars paid out to the players, not the cap hit itself, a front loaded deal could be very problematic for us.
I don’t think the fanbase will be put off if we trade one of those big 3 for a good player in return for them, losing two (or even all three) would be depleting though. IMO, Poile has to deal with this in an assertive way. Waiting for everything to hopefully fall into place, which tends to be the way he approaches things, could very well leave him (and the fans) out in the cold here.
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 14, 2011 4:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But if to get Shea to sign, we need a front-loaded deal…and Suter is willing to take a back-loaded deal – it could balance out.
And I agree losing one for forward talent is fine, losing more drives a stake into the franchise. I think this has to be glaringly obvious. I don’t think the front office is that stupid, because if they are and don’t retain them – they need to be tossed out on their asses.
Hockeymetricians, they're ever so pious. Are they doing real science or confirming their bias?
WEBER WILL HAVE TO GO
and i agree the fanbase will be ok w/ that as long as we are getting established nhl impact player in return or 2 or 3 high end cheaper youngsters (ie: hall, eberle, grabner, okposo,etc). we cant make the trade for picks. and to other commenters… nobody takes back loaded deals.
by predswilrule on Aug 14, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
The ironic thing here is that Rinne will likely be the easiest of the three to re-sign, maybe even in the 5M range, but does Poile want to tie up that much money in a long term deal for a goalie? Gotta think Pekka is going to want about 5 years in his next contract, so that becomes another dilemma for Poile. Probably best to sign who can at this point.
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 14, 2011 7:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't think he will have a prob with that
seeing as how he was willing to give a 31 year old Vokoun $5+ mil for 4 years with a smaller overall payroll… Pekka is younger.. and better.
I’m still sick over the whole thing. Ready to move on to other re-signing’s: Suter and Pekka, for now. Gonna be a stressful season already.
I really want hockey back
I can’t remember an offseason where I just think about hockey all day long like this. Usually it fades away until the season starts and I get all fired up again but this offseason it never went away. It’s driving me crazy that there isn’t games going on. I Want Hockey.
Something Funny
Meanwhile it's Shea's birthday today
Happy Birthday, even though I’m still mad at you for not signing before arbitration. (Is that just too mean of me?)
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
He could at least send us all a big piece of that Bday cake……….preferably chocolate layer cake with vanilla icing. :)
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 14, 2011 1:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He owes us something
Chocolate cake—Stanley Cup….which to choose, which to choose? :)
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
Both!
"Next time someone tells you Nashville’s not a hockey town, tell ‘em to come to Smashville and try some of the home cookin’." - TSN Broadcaster
by Go_Titans_Preds_USC on Aug 14, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully this time next year, that’s exactly what we will be doing. :)
Hockeymetricians, they're ever so pious. Are they doing real science or confirming their bias?
Poile to Weber
“Ok Shea, here’s the deal: win the cup this year and i’ll let you go free agent. Deal?”
Weber to Poile
“I can go free agent anyway, Cup or no Cup”! :D
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 14, 2011 7:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
^
Depressing.
"Next time someone tells you Nashville’s not a hockey town, tell ‘em to come to Smashville and try some of the home cookin’." - TSN Broadcaster
by Go_Titans_Preds_USC on Aug 15, 2011 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Really liked the Gelinas piece....
and didnt we just hear about Watson having some success for Team USA? Think Martin is at home beaming with pride for his pupil?
by Christopher Seth Rhine on Aug 14, 2011 1:52 PM EDT reply actions
And now we see where Poile went wrong with his arbitration proposal......
It appears that Poile was looking at comparable cap hits of other top Dmen, not their overall compensation for the last year of this CBA, which includes any bonuses a player may have in their contracts. By Poile making such a low bid, it clearly didn’t come across as credible to the arbitor and presuaded him to side with the Weber camp. Making a more credible offer at maybe 5.5M may have helped our cause a bit during this process.
As far as ESPN’s prospect rankings, it’s a head scratcher. True, Ellis is our only top tier type prospect, but we’re far better than a #26 ranking.
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 14, 2011 2:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think it’s because we’re planning on moving Milwaukee to Nashville, so we have no more prospects. ;) Hockey’s future listed us at #3 before the draft. Something weird has to be going on.
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
Prospect rankings tend to be all over the map, considering the variety of leagues the prospects play in. I tend not to put much stock in such things, whether from Hockey’s Future or ESPN.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to news, reviews, and deals on hockey equipment and accessories. Catch me on Twitter, or join OTF on Facebook!
Watching this replay on NHLN today, a few things stand out.........
1. Our goalies are really tall (not sure if everyone was aware of that). :D
2. Our inablity to make smart plays with the puck 10ft. inside the other teams Dzone leads to all kinds of problems for us, primarily lost scoring opportunities for us and breakouts going the other way for our opponent. A puck possession hog with mad offensive skills would do wonders for us in this area (thinking of someone with the initials ZP). :)
3. You can see why Franson was considered expendable by management: he gets beat one on one pretty badly.
4. Blum is very impressive.
5. Fisher was a good acquisition.
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 14, 2011 3:50 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
You forgot how well Klein played…
World Wide Weber.
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer
Only so much room for every observation. :)
Honestly, I don’t think we would have won that series had Hiller been in goal for the Ducks (minus the vertigo). Never hurts to get a break like that and take advantage of it.
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 14, 2011 4:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm not so sure
Hiller would have made that much of a difference in this series. This series (along with the regular season series) was all offense. Not including the 4th game of the regular season, we faced Hiller 3 times and he gave up 11 goals.
Even Pekka the Great was pedestrian in this series.
MY POINT EXACTLY
w/o peks being himself we couldnt win w/o hiller being awful. could he have been as bad as the immobile emery? possible, but not likely.
by predswilrule on Aug 14, 2011 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Watching Emery play in that series, it was obvious he had limited mobility and difficulty getting up once down in the butterfly position. We took advantage of it, but it would have been much tougher if Hiller were healthy and in goal for them.
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 14, 2011 7:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Weber's comparableis Duncan Keith
So Weber’s next contract mostly likely around $70M x dozen years
Follow my Tweets at http://twitter.com/JawandaPuck
A late night/early morning thought.......
Currently, there are only 5 teams spending less money on forwards than we are, the Canes, Isles, Jets, Coyotes and Senators……and a few of those teams still need to sign a few forwards to have 13 on the roster (we have 13 right now).
As the saying goes, “you get what you pay for”.
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 15, 2011 2:03 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
and we don't pay much
… which is scary since we have two bad contracts in Legwand and Erat. Without those, we would be WAY under the floor.
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