Friday's notes: A little bit of everything
by Dirk Hoag on Aug 19, 2011 7:48 AM EDT
in Nashville Predators News
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PrintWe've got projections for the upcoming season, news that the NHL's R&D camp is yielding results which could impact the game within a matter of weeks, and the use of stats to pick apart one of the most annoying cliches around.
There's all that and a lot more going on in this morning's hockey notes, so follow after the jump!
Nashville Predators News
These Guys Are Just Like Us - NashvillePredators.com
A great observation by Tom Callahan here, that getting anyone to admit they need help with issues like depression or substance abuse is tough enough (and something people from all walks of life struggle with). For pro athletes who are steeped in a "suck it up, get out and there and play" mindset, it can be even more difficult.
No surprise national TV neglects the Predators once again… | Section 303
Jeremy's pissed at the lack of Preds coverage on Versus coming up this season, and understandably so.
Previewing the Predators’ forwards for 2011-12, part two… | Section 303
Could Blake Geoffrion find a home alongside David Legwand and Martin Erat? That's an interesting notion, as I like Blake's size and willingness to go to the front of the net.
The Resurgence of Patric Hornqvist | The Predatorial
I'm betting on Hornqvist getting back to 30 goals, too.
Smashville 24/7: 2011-12 Preview: Kevin Klein
I think we can establish a realistic expectation for Kevin Klein, as a 2nd-pair even strength defender and solid PK man. That's a pretty darned valuable piece to have in a team's toolkit...
Around the NHL
"The Most Dangerous Lead in Hockey" – Fact or Myth? | PuckScene.com
Patten's been doing some number crunching, and (thankfully) skewers a tired old saw.
Is Jeremy Roenick America’s answer to Don Cherry? - The Globe and Mail
Get used to JR sounding off, as he signed a five-year contract with NBC to provide colorful commentary.
NHL moving toward a safer rink - The Globe and Mail
It's nice to see good ideas move quickly out of the league's R&D Camp and into regular practice, especially when they have to do with player safety.
Why calling icing on penalty killers might be terrible - Puck Daddy
To me, the last point here is the biggest; I'm not a big fan of increasing the role of special teams in hockey. Instead, focus on increasing the up-and-down action in 5-on-5 play.
No Tweaking Allowed : Tom Benjamin's NHL Blog
Another good reason to eschew all these "boost the power play" ideas being tested; they put more of a game's result in the hands of the referees.
Who Are The Goons and Who Do They Fight - Pension Plan Puppets
Another well-researched post which shows just how much of a sideshow "enforcers" have become in the NHL.
Shot Through the Hart - Pension Plan Puppets
Here's a neat way to demonstrate the connection between firing lots of shots, and goal-scoring. Pretty graphs here.
Hockey guru "embarrassed" by his Oilers predictions, but says he did better with other teams | Edmonton Journal
Ah, the perils of projection!
Doughty Should Look at Hextall to See Potential Damage of Holdout - NHL Hot Stove
A history lesson for the young defenseman.
Bourne Blog: Inside painkiller problems in pro hockey - Puck Daddy
Good insight here as to just how common the use of painkillers is for pro players, both at the minor league and NHL level. "Just by nature itself, some people are hard-wired to love 'em, some are hard-wired to hate 'em. When you run enough pills through enough guys, it's inevitable you're going to hit a handful that love 'em just a touch too much."
Islanders, MSG decide not to celebrate Penguins brawl - Puck Daddy
They may have struck this down, but I'll bet that Isles fans will still use that slugfest with Pittsburgh as a rallying point.
Bauer Supreme One20 Composite Hockey Stick Review - Hockey Gear HQ - news, reviews & deals
The level of engineering in modern one-piece composite hockey sticks gives players the ability to select equipment that's highly tailored to their style of play.
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The title of the article “Is Jeremy Roenick America’s answer to Don Cherry?” evoked a question in my mind: “Why do we need an answer to Don Cherry?”
He grabs attention
Personally, I love Don Cherry. But like him or not, the guy creates interest and conversation, and hockey needs someone who can draw in casual viewers. JR at least has the potential to do that (a lot more than a guy like Mike Milbury, anyway!).
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to news, reviews, and deals on hockey equipment and accessories. Catch me on Twitter, or join OTF on Facebook!
Thank for not saying “it begs the question.” The misuse of that phrase is a pet peeve of mine and it’s reaching epic proportions these days. It doesn’t mean what most people seem to think it means. (See http://begthequestion.info/)
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
your post....
…. begs the question… what are you talking about?!
Exactly. I don’t agree with these guys all the time or maybe even some of the time. But I like listening to them, if for no other reason than to throw something at the TV after they say something outrageous. Not easy to be the opinion guy on these broadcasts. You have to always stake a position, and sometimes it may not even be a position you agree with. He’s trying to entertain, start a conversation. A good columnist or even a good blogger does much of the same thing. Hockey Night in Canada just wouldn’t be the same without Don Cherry.
I can understand why some folks like Roenick and why he’s a good investment for the network, but he makes me grind my teeth. The only solution I’ve found for my dilemma is the mute button.
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
Thanks for the info about “begs the question,” which begs raises the question: Is there any subject matter that doesn’t have a website? Someone took the time to build that. Even offers BTQ merchandise (but no hockey jerseys, which is a regrettable omission). … Seriously, thanks for the link, CAustin. I think Aristotle just smiled.
Not to mention that they pay to maintain it. That is some serious commitment to either formal logic or the proper use of the English language. Probably a grad student or something. :)
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
I like them both. Could make a good argument for Klein as most improved player this past season. And I like Suter – a lot. Great hockey family, great way about him, American kid (not that it matters, but it’s nice), great vision, very smooth game. Captain material, I think, for us or someone else. He’s one of those guys that I think other hockey players like/respect more than the media or the fans.
You may have just begged the question. :D
Looks like the poor guys website crashed due to the 10+ hits it got from people at OtF……..not used to that volumn of web traffic I guess. :D
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 19, 2011 2:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
As for Hornqvist.......
I think HornQ will be a consistant 25 goal guy, which is fine by me. However, those who look to HornQ to be a consistant 30+ guy are going to be disappointed, IMO. Give him better talent to work with and maybe 30 goals every year is realistic, but with this bunch, it will be a real challange to hit that number.
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 19, 2011 2:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
With a healthy Erat and Fisher being his linemates…and Trotz hopefully not playing One-Armed Bandit with the lines…I think Hornqvist will have a ton of potential to hit at least 30 goals this year and beyond.
Hope Poile is bringing in the better linemates for the future, but Hornqvist is all heart…just needs someone to step up for him when he’s being molested in front of the net after the whistle, and I think Fisher can fill that role nicely.
by HardCorePredFan316 on Aug 19, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s possible, but I see a parallel between HornQ’s 30 goal year and SK74’s numbers last season. They both had a good amount of luck getting the numbers they did in those seasons, something which is hard to duplicate in successive years. They’re both guys who can hit 20 goals on a regular basis, IMO, but I’m not confident in expecting more than that from them.
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 19, 2011 4:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
When Hornqvist scored 30, his shooting percentage was 10.9 percent, and entirely reasonable figure. SK74 shot 24.7% this last season, which screams “unrepeatable”.
There’s good reason to believe that Hornqvist’s 21 goals last season were partially due to relatively poor luck, and his returning to normal should boost him well above 25. For SK74, however, “normal” will involve dipping below 20.
To sum up – the ability to produce shots is the enduring talent, while in an individual season, shooting percentage can vary widely.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to news, reviews, and deals on hockey equipment and accessories. Catch me on Twitter, or join OTF on Facebook!
SK74 shot 24.7% this last season, which screams "unrepeatable".
To me, it screams: “I don’t shoot enough!”
That’s what makes things hard to predict. Dirk has a good point, but I think you’re right, too. This guy is incredibly selective with his shots. He loves to dish the puck, no question, and he’s great at it. Wish he’d be a bit more selfish or realize that sometimes, the best play is at the net, even if there’s no angle, no room, no chance. I can see hitting 24.7% if the only time you shoot is when things are perfect and you’re looking at an open net.
To expand on this:
I totally agree that SK can’t keep up that shooting percentage, and he shouldn’t! But that doesn’t mean he can’t pot equal OR MORE goals! See:
If I scored 1 goal on 1 shot: I’d be 100% shooting! But only one goal would be added…
If I scored 5 goals on 10 shots: I’d be 50%.
If I scored 25 goals on 100 shots: I’d be at 25%. (SK had 93 SOG)
What if he doubled that to roughly 200? 50 goals would be 25%. But, he could put in like 30, and 30/200 = 15%. Still a little high in the bracket, but realistic.
The same 23 goals would be 11.5% with 200 SOG. Right in the mean with most forwards.
But here's the trick...
Doubling one’s shot totals from one season to the next (barring a huge jump in ice time and/or games played) is pretty much unheard of.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to news, reviews, and deals on hockey equipment and accessories. Catch me on Twitter, or join OTF on Facebook!
I wasn’t comparing their relative shooting %, just that they both, so to speak, had the puck bounce their way in those seasons. HornQ’s goals mostly come from deflections, which has a certain luck factor involved in it, getting good shots to deflect being the key one. HornQ shoots the puck a lot, but he doesn’t score much off his shot.
Now, give HornQ someone who puts a lot of SOG on his line and we’ll see his numbers improve, but a guy like him needs the right linemates to succeed, as he’s not someone who creates offense off the rush or with his shot.
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 19, 2011 4:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
maybe if they put SK74 and Hornq on the same line, and tell Kostitsyn to pass the puck really hard to Hornqvist, they can trick him into taking more shots. :)
Keys to the game: GA<GF
You’re on to something there, Toe Blake. That might work. Now we just have to call his brother.
by el pucko on Aug 19, 2011 9:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not trying to stir the pot...
But in my article, I observed that Hornqvist scores almost half his goals on the rebound…meaning if Fisher/Kostitsyn/Erat or others (especially Kostitsyn) would shoot more, Hornqvist can clean up the trash in front of the net. 10 out of Hornqvist’s 21 goals were rebounds, only 3 were from deflections. Deflections are tough, like you said, but going to the hard area in front of the net and banging the loose change into the net is his bread and butter and why I think he’ll score 30+ next season. And I’m an optimist and STH so my opinion stands as fact.. haha ;^P
by HardCorePredFan316 on Aug 19, 2011 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
What was HornQ’s breakdown of goals in the 09/10? I’d be interested to see what that breakdown looks like. If, as I suspect, a big chunk of them were deflection goals, that would bolster my theory (which is my aim here). :)
Now if you were a glass 2/3 full person and a STH, would that give you plenery authority as well? :D
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 19, 2011 10:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Hörnqvist 09-10 30 goal breakdown: 7 goals off of tips, 7 goals off of rebounds, 3 goals that were rebound-like, but not true rebounds (i.e. the puck bounded off someone other than the goalie and Patric picked up the loose puck and scored), and 13 goals that were neither a rebound nor a tip. I think the last group is often overlooked and the thought is he scores only off of rebounds or tips. Whereas, I sort of see it as – when he is most productive he scores in multiple ways.
Well, that helps my point a little bit in that HornQ had 4 more tip ins in 09-10 than he did last season, though I would have thought more of his 09-10 goals were off tip ins (seemed like he had a ton of them). 25 goals is what I expect from HornQ, if he does better than that, it’s a bonus.
Shadows only exist when something of substance appears first.......
by Grizzledbear on Aug 20, 2011 12:50 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think...
we can all agree that we want Hornqvist to shoot a lot, tip a lot, and get a lot of rebound goals…Fine with me ;P
by HardCorePredFan316 on Aug 20, 2011 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm as pissed as Jeremy about lack of TV coverage for the Preds....
but at least the Preds get more TV love in Canada than the USA. We play 2 home games on "Hockey Night in Canada" with Saturday night prime time games against the Habs and Jets. My hope is that the games we play on Versus/NBC Sports are not blacked out locally and shown on FSN-TN or SS. FSN-TN/SS are committed to play 70 games this season regionally and if they don’t black them out and broadcast them then that’s an extra 2 games we get to see on TV.
Geoffrion
I’m not sure about 303’s idea to move him to the wing position. He seems to already understand the center position defensively and moving him to wing may not bode to well with his game.
Keys to the game: GA<GF
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Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats & analysis, and managing editor of On the Forecheck.
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