Monday's notes: The Game begins with The 1st Quarter, naturally
by Dirk Hoag on Aug 29, 2011 9:53 AM EDT
in Nashville Predators News
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Print102.5 The Game, the new radio home of the Nashville Predators, launched this morning with The 1st Quarter, a morning drive show featuring Darren McFarland and Brad Hopkins. Hockey fans should be encouraged by a few developments discussed this morning:
- Each Wednesday will feature "Coffee With The Coach", with Barry Trotz joining the show for two segments, and taking calls from listeners.
- Wade Belak will have a weekly show from 9-10 p.m. Mondays.
- Until they bring in ESPN Radio to fill some regular time slots in the coming weeks, from 10-1 each day they're going to re-broadcast games from the Preds' 2011 playoff run, hosted by Tom Callahan.
For more, check out the Q&A I ran yesterday with 102.5's Sports Director, "Crazy" Charlie Saunier.
One thing that really struck me about this format is that many of these shows will be available in podcast form, which is a huge benefit for fans who may not be able to pick up a radio signal when a given show is on, and can listen later on as they wish. It also extends the potential listening audience beyond Nashville, and you can bet you'll get folks from Toronto subscribing to the Wade Belak show.
So tune in to 102.5 while you read this morning's hockey notes...
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What happens on the ice...stays on the ice...
by BrianAdsFan on Aug 29, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
He’d be $5M a year for the next two years, but does have a limited NTC. He’s 31 and averaged about 21G and just under a point per game in his time in Dallas. He always seemed to me to be someone to set up teammates instead of scoring tons of goals, but with Richards gone, they may be looking to remake the Stars roster a little bit. I think he’d be good, though I don’t remember how his speed is nowadays. Wonder who DAL would want in return.
One problem with that trade from Dallas’ perspective is that it would put them under the cap floor, if I’m not mistaken. Really don’t see us adding anyone, let alone a 5M guy like Ribeiro. Can’t see the Stars trading away offense either unless they were getting something really good in return.
As for trading Ellis, absolutely if it’s in a deal for a top flight scorer. For a Ribeiro type, probably not.
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Aug 29, 2011 6:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Huh? A 5M depth man?
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Aug 29, 2011 7:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't think we're trading Ryan Ellis...
not right away at least. He can QB a power play, and that is definitely needed on this team. And Blake Comeau? Give me a break? 24 goals is decent, but Ellis might be able to put up that many. And he quotes Ellis’ weight – well, I haven’t seen that updated in a couple years. He’s put on muscle, you can see it in his recent training video that was posted. I wouldn’t be surprised at 185 or so now. I think he plays in the NHL for us for at least a dozen games before being traded.
Why is it that every time I read Ryan Ellis’ name the word “trade” is somewhere else in the same sentence?
I think it’s because it’s speculation season, and people want to give up something of value without giving up something of value, like the big three. Or maybe they yawn when they hear about a puck-moving defenseman. I don’t know why. Except moving him at this stage would be a huge mistake, something we might regret sooner rather than later. Kid’s resume is so good. Focus on that, not the size.
Blake Comeau? Give me a break?
Amen, do not want.
by Joel Ward is my Homeboy on Aug 29, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Isn't he
part of that upgraded offense we want?
You mean the upgraded offense the fans want? (Not to be confused with the wants of the front office). ;)
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Aug 29, 2011 6:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Interesting new post just up at Raw Charge
looking at the effect shorthanded goals against would have on power play rankings. The Preds’ abysmal PP efficiency gets a boost when you factor in that we had the 2nd fewest shorthanded goals against in the league last year. We’d go from 26th in PP rankings to 17th. It’s something worth considering, anyway.
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
We don’t allow a lot of short handed goals because we spend so much time in our own end passing it around and trying to figure out how to get past the neutral zone.
by RemoWilliams84 on Aug 29, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sarcasm is easy.
But the question is whether we are better than other teams at protecting against shorthanded goals. We all know the PP sucks. Nobody’s denying that. But IF, and I repeat IF, we do well at this when others may not, it’s something we don’t necessarily want to lose.
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
Wow….There must be some bad PP’s around the league….or at least a bunch of teams giving up shorties.
If we keep the shorties down and show a small improvement on the PP, I could live with a top 15 PP.
Tampa let in the most at 16, and Florida let in 15. It’s a way of looking at the PP unit defensively, I guess, so we come out looking relatively good in this measure.
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
For reference the Preds allowed 2 (tied with Edmonton). All the figures are in that article.
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
Predds PP
We were also 26th in total PP time and 24th in PP opportunities. I would think that had some bearing on the amount of SHGA. Plus the numbers at NHL.com show Tampa with 16 and Florida with 5.
The tendency to whining and complaining may be taken as the surest sign symptom of little souls and inferior intellects. ~ Lord Jeffrey
Sorry
That was my error. It was Dallas with 15, not Florida. The numbers John used for the analysis come from nhl.com and are at his article (click on the column heading). The reporting errors are my own.
And perhaps it would be interesting to see what the correlation between total time spent on the PP and the # of SHGA really is. It could certainly put that measure into some perspective.
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
No problem
Just making sure that the numbers jived in both places.
I think the telling stat is that we had 1.29 shots per PP opportunity. That is near the bottom of the league. Of the teams that were above 10 SHGA only ATL was close to us with 1.35 shots per PP. I just took a quick look but the data would seem to suggest if you aren’t shooting the puck then you aren’t giving up shorties.
The tendency to whining and complaining may be taken as the surest sign symptom of little souls and inferior intellects. ~ Lord Jeffrey
I also think that the number of PP chances
skews the data.
Carolina had a lower shots per pp than we did, 1.291 to 1.293, but they also had roughly 80 more PP. Thus the difference between the 6 SHGA for them and the 2 for us.
The tendency to whining and complaining may be taken as the surest sign symptom of little souls and inferior intellects. ~ Lord Jeffrey
So, either we need to draw more penalties or ….Well, there’s no “or” there. We definitely need to shoot more, on and off the PP. More particularly, we need to get someone in there who can handle the puck well and be creative on offense.
In the end, maybe what this info does is really just highlight an already well-known aspect of our PP problems. It’s an interesting exercise, certainly. Thanks for looking over the numbers.
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
“We need to get someone in there who can handle the puck well and be creative on offense”
Yes indeed. But when I ask? When?!?!
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Aug 29, 2011 6:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
February? (I duck as things go flying past my head.)
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
February of what year? :/
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Aug 29, 2011 7:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
In the year 2128……will we still have to wait……for a trade for scoring…….or will Poile still be snoring (oh, oh, oh). :D
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Aug 29, 2011 10:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Don't laugh, but I was up early today, so I looked at some numbers myself
and from what I could see (given my very real mathematical limitations) while shots/power play can be a factor and shouldn’t be dismissed, it doesn’t seem to be the only explanation for the difference between one team and another. Vancouver had both one of the highest shots/power play (at 1.53) and one of the lowest SHGA (2). Tampa, with the highest SHGA, was 15th in shots/power play. So this measure might still reflect an active defense as well as the kind of offense put up.
Obviously, what would be needed would be for someone who actually knows what they’re doing (i.e., not me) to look at it and see what they see. If anyone is interested, of course. If not, then never mind.
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
is there a metric of PPG by D-men%?
I bet that is decently consistent with SHGA; i.e. if the d-men score a higher percentange of the team’s PPG, that stands to reason that the play can easily turn over into a short handed chance.
Not to argue from a single example, but Tampa (with a crappy defense, btw) uses Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos on its power play unit. You can guess where their PPGs come from (hint: not the defense.) Still, the % of shots taken by d-men as opposed to forwards could be a factor.
I kinda think that the ability of a PP unit to react defensively when needed might be what this measure points to. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Nashville lets in very few SHGA. But we may want to take into account this defensive function when analyzing any (potential, and as yet still only hopeful) gains in PP efficiency this upcoming season.
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
May I offer a simpler explanation?
Most SHG’s come off a turnover at the blueline resulting in an odd man break going the other way. If a team has limited time in the offensive zone on the PP due to not having control of the puck and having to retrieve the puck after yet another easy clear down the ice by their opponent, SH opportunities will be limited.
So in other words, a better PP will almost necessarily lead to more SH attempts by the opponent, but the upside should be desirable.
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Aug 30, 2011 11:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Except that some teams seem to be able to do both—defend against the shorties and take plenty of shots. I don’t think this tells us anything specific about the number of turnovers because it doesn’t take into account the percentage of turnovers that become actual shorthanded goals (or the number of turnovers defended against). Yes, if you have an effective PP, you can overcome a higher number of shorthanded goals than you could otherwise, but not every team with a highly effective PP had a high number of SHGA. Vancouver is the big example, first in PP offense, close to fewest SHGAs. What are they doing differently? (And how can we do that?)
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
Who your goalie is no doubt plays a big part in how many SHG you allow. Loungo (usually at least) is a very good goalie, thus a low SHG total. Same for Rinne. Tampa gave up a lot of SHG, but look at who their goalies were for most of the season. Probably a big correlation between quality of goalie and SHG allowed.
Our PP problem isn’t due to our Dmen, it’s exclusively the fault of our forwards. I doubt seriously that having better forwards would lead to more SHG against.
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Aug 30, 2011 12:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If you look at the list, though, San Jose is up there in adjusted efficiency (#3) with Niemi in net. He’s not as bad as Smellis was, but he’s no Luongo/Rinne, either. I asked John if there was a change when Roli came in but he hasn’t answered. I suspect those numbers would be much harder to get than the aggregate numbers were.
A change in the forwards might or might not lead to more SHGA. It seems to depend on how it’s managed. I’m all for getting better forwards, but IF the PP improves we may want to be aware of whether SHGAs go up at the same time, so we can know better how much it has improved.
"I'm a firm believer that in life, if you're happy then happy things will happen for you."--Bernie Parent
Part Predator, part Lightning.
SHG attempts are mainly caused by poor decision making on the part of the pointmen, something we don’t have many big issues with here, especially because we rarely if ever use forwards on the point. How good your goalie is on breakaways will have a lot to do with the SHG numbers. Niemi has always struck me as being pretty good on breakaways, so that might have something to do with San Jose’s good SHG numbers.
Can’t see any downside to improving the forwards in any capacity as far as the PP is concerned……..or any other part of our game for that matter.
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Aug 30, 2011 6:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
FANTASY HOCKEY?
Anyone setting up an OtF League this year?
Just can’t do it….I would never win because of a seething hatred for Detroit, Chicago, Vancouver, Anaheim….pretty much all other Western Conference teams would not allow me to draft any of their players. It would be a team of Predators and Eastern Conference players and not be too good.
by HardCorePredFan316 on Aug 29, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Dirk
thanks for the link to our rankings. We covered fantasy hockey a bit last year, so this season is our first full year providing coverage and we’re real excited about it.
thanks again.
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com
It was my pleasure!
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and founder of HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to hockey equipment and accessories. Catch me on Twitter, or join OTF on Facebook!
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