Thursday's notes: Reading the tea leaves

I am convinced that all the other teams and sports writers in the league are jealous of our organization. They all want Shea Weber and will say or write anything to try and start a feud. They also want our team in Canada and it kills them that the Preds are doing well. I am not worried about Weber anymore after that press conference. I am confident he likes playing here and realizes how good the organization as a whole is. Take away a couple terrible penalty calls and the Preds make it to the conference finals. We need to make some moves still, but I do like this team and these players.

If Poile believes this group of forwards is capable of winning anything, then not only will Shea be gone, but likely Suter as well. If this whole arbitration process wasn’t enough of a slap in the fans faces, Poile BS about the forwards is the kick right into our collective gonads.

  Nice touch, GMDP.

Yes, most, if not all, our forwards would be 3rd or 4th liners on a team like the Ducks or Canucks. And if we want to see Lord Stanley’s Cup floating down the Cumberland that is going to have to change, but that doesn’t mean Poile should publicly trash them. I’d lose the little respect I have left for him if he did. They didn’t create the team’s budget; they don’t set up draft day strategy; they do work hard and give their best to this town and team.

have I heard so much boohooing and caterwauling as the result of rumor and innuendo. As for me, I’m looking forward to Oct 13th when the Preds (including our captain) open the season at home to the noise of 17,113 of the most raucous fans the NHL has ever known.

I believe " The Predator Way" is the axiom adopted by management as a hedge…..because we are a team with a self imposed cap…..for now.

So “The Predator Way” is defense first, giving our prospects an opportunity, good two way play and scoring by committee…..It’s the way I see it. I do not believe it means we will not sign a forward who has more offensive ability ( we have in the past), but doing it within a framework that doesn’t bust the bank or create a situation with poor long term implications for our franchise….and unfortunately, only management will ever know this.

So one of the theories floating is Weber forcing the hand of management to up the ante, so to speak, possibly before they are “ready”…..or lose me.

Two thoughts: If the floated theory is correct, I’m not sure a player should have this much influence, even one as good as Weber. It would be up to management to convince him we are on a path to financial viability to compete each year. IMHO, our organization proves it, but with the prospect of the big 3 needing to get paid, signing a forward is not in this years plan. So Poile builds up our existing players, which he should in any instance.

2nd thought: If there is an empass in convincing Weber the righteous path is followed, leading to the Cup, he needs to be traded for assets. It is too great a risk to allow him to play this year, we not make the type of move that satisfies him, and he accepts large offers at season end.

It would not be smart….

I can’t speak to Shea’s relationship with the GM or the team moving forward. That’s all speculative. But we do know that arbitration (based on history, not conjecture) is not a good sign and usually leads to a divorce of some kind. And assuming you think $7.5M is a more-than-generous award (this isn’t the market saying $7.5M, this is a guy saying $7.5M), I think we know enough to declare winners and losers in the arbitration.

Winners – Shea and his agent. Especially his agent.

Losers – The team, for whom this is now a yearlong distraction, and the fans, who are trying to figure out what it means and whose number to put on the back of their new jerseys.

Some lawyers in the crowd may argue there are no winners in arbitration, only two sides that didn’t get everything they wanted. In that way, it’s different than a negotiation, where there can be two winners. (That’s why you want to settle it on your own and not have a third party do it.) But here, I think our GM got rolled enough to declare winner. In fact, he got so rolled that I wonder how much of a fight, how much an argument was even presented. But again, this is coming from a perspective that says $7.5M is pretty big for what Shea brings and his resume, good as it is.

What strikes me as we talk more about GMDP is how familiar this is. Caps history is similar. They had a remarkable run of consecutive playoff appearances in the 80s and early 90s, built mostly on the draft, a starless bunch except for a couple of high profile defensemen (Langway, Stevens, Hatcher, etc.), a frequent first-round loser in the playoffs. Familiar? I wonder if there’s anything to the argument that he’s a terrific GM if you’re working with not much and the goal is to get into the playoffs. If you’re looking for more, he may not be the guy. … I’m not saying I believe that. But that’s the rep. And this is all starting to look too familiar, right down to the Scott Stevens-Shea Weber comparison.

All that said, not pissed at Shea. Not yet. And I think the players are very good at separating business side from competitive side, better than we think. (If Radulov came back tomorrow, would he have some damage control ahead, some explaining to do in the locker room? I say probably not. That’s more for the fans.)

What makes this a bit uncomfortable – and Dirk mentioned this a bit in his post – is that this is your captain, your leader, the guy you’ve rearranged everything for. We just went to arbitration with our captain. I’m not sure if that’s happened in recent history, but I’m pretty sure it’s not a good thing.

Can Shea sacrifice some things for the good of the team? Certainly. Lots of examples there (usually from folks who are giving up something personally to compete with a strong team for a championship, which is how the rich get richer). Should he sacrifice some things for the good of the team? Up to him. Won’t hold it against him if he doesn’t. But he understands why my new jersey will remain blank for awhile.

  One of the things we all speculated about during this process was whether the direction of the team angle played a part in the contract talks. Now we know that it did according to various articles written about it. This is actually encouraging because it puts the heat on this organization to make improvements, something we the fans lack the power to do (we could not buy tickets, but that would be counter-productive). It appears to me that the competitiveness angle is as important to Weber as the dollars are, and that’s a good sign.

  If we don’t improve this team and Weber walks, that blame will be squarely be on the organizations lap. Can’t fault a player for wanting to wait as long as they can to see what direction their team is going before committing to them long term. I’d do the same thing.

Exactly, there’s your silver lining. Does this force the team to accelerate its timetable and win sooner rather than later? I’m still stuck on the one thing GMDP said yesterday that I think was revealing and important, if we can figure it out what it means: We agree on the hockey side, we disagree on the business side. Not sure what the first part means, but one interpretation is that the disagreement has nothing to do with the supporting cast or the team’s approach to building a contender.

If my interpretation is wrong, certainly Weber played his way into a position where he can wait and see what direction things are going. Basically he can play for anyone at this point (next year), so why should it be us? But he’s one of the few. If everyone approached the same way, the NHL would be a small and not very interesting league.

One counter-point though. I haven’t been following these guys since the beginning, only the last 5-6 years, so your perspective may be different from mine. Seems like the big-splash method of improving your team didn’t work so well in that pre-fire sale season. Granted, that could have been Patrick’s last hurrah, basically a double-or-nothing approach. But be careful how you improve your team. It can be done in subtle ways, too.

Dirk,

You made the following comment:

The fact that they couldn’t even get a one-year deal done to avoid arbitration speaks to something deeper than just declining to make a long-term commitment right now, and seeing what kind of team gets put together.

What could it be speaking to? My thought is Poile probably lowered the dollar amount on a potential 1 year deal but Shea and his agent anticipated that they’d probably get 1 year out of arbitration AND more money. In which case the two parties would continue to stalemate.

Thoughts?

the only logical move is to move weber. could be before camp, by the trade deadline or at the draft. my reasoning is we dont need picks so even an offer sheet isnt great for us. we need players. preferably one and a prospect or better yet 2 high skill young, and less expensive, players. edmonton has them. maybe the islanders too. im sure there are others. i guess i prefer to make the move now and see what we could do with some young gun offensive players. on the other hand we are already going to be very young on the blueline and if we make the move now and play badly this year we stand to lose alot of momentum. even if its the right move longterm it could be ugly early on.

…. Had he just let a team make an offer, he more than likely would have matched and had his long term deal…. unless of course the offer was for more than $8-9 million per year.