Niclas Bergfors 2011-2012 Season Preview - Nashville's Next Great Bargain?
by Dirk Hoag on Sep 26, 2011 12:13 PM EDT
in Nashville Predators Player Profiles
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Niclas Bergfors represents the latest example of what's becoming a consistent trend in recent Nashville Predators history - signing an erstwhile hot prospect to a bargain contract, after his previous team decided to part ways. Last season, it was Sergei Kostitsyn, who ended up leading the Preds in scoring after Montreal traded him to Nashville for a bag of pucks. Can Bergfors repeat the feat and deliver maximum value for minimum wage?
Niclas Bergfors
#18 / Right Wing / Nashville Predators
5-10
194
Mar 07, 1987
2011-2012 Salary: $525K Restricted Free Agent in 2012
Signed as free agent by Nashville on July 3, 2011
Drafted: 1st round (23rd) by New Jersey in 2005
Follow after the jump for all the details...
2010-2011 Recap
After having come to Atlanta in the Ilya Kovalchuk trade late in the 2009-2010 season, Bergfors got off to a decent but not overwhelming start with the Thrashers, with 11 goals and 18 assists through 52 games. At the trading deadline, he was shipped to Florida along with Patrick Rissmiller for Radek Dvorak and a 5th-round pick, but things didn't click with the Panthers. He added just one goal and 6 assists in the final 20 games, and was allowed by Florida to hit the open market as a free agent.
Milestones Within Reach
200 Games Played - needs 38
100 Career Points - needs 19
Advanced Stats
Individual numbers (5-on-5)
| Color Key (compared to all player-seasons from 2009-10 & 2010-11 for wingers with > 20 GP) | Best 10% | Best 30% | Worst 30% | Worst 10% |
| Season | GP | TOI | Goals/60 | Assists/60 | Points/60 | Shots/60 | Shoot % | Pn Draw/60 | Pn Take/60 |
| 2010 | 81 | 12.74 | 0.64 | 0.99 | 1.63 | 9.71 | 6.59% | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| 2011 | 72 | 12.84 | 0.58 | 1.17 | 1.75 | 8.50 | 6.82% | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| Average | 76.5 | 12.79 | 0.61 | 1.08 | 1.69 | 9.11 | 6.71% | 0.40 | 0.20 |
Most data from BehindTheNet.ca.
When it comes to the individual data, what we see here is a reasonably productive offensive player who fires the puck on net at an above-average pace. He doesn't take very many penalties (the low figure there is shaded green because that's the one measure where low is good), and while he doesn't draw many from his opponents, either, the net result is positive.
Team metrics while on-ice (5-on-5)
| Season | Corsi | Net Zone Starts | Adjusted Corsi | Team Shoot % | Team Save % | PDO |
| 2010 | +4.53 | 9 | +3.99 | 6.76 | 910 | 978 |
| 2011 | +5.91 | -16 | +7.19 | 6.99 | 911 | 981 |
| Average | +5.22 | -3.5 | +5.59 | 6.88 | 911 | 980 |
The numbers here are particularly encouraging; his basic Corsi (the balance of Total Shots For & Against while he was on the ice in 5-on-5 play) were nicely positive, and with a medium workload in terms of Zone Starts (negative means lots of extra faceoffs in the defensive end, positive are extras in the offensive side), once we adjust his Corsi for those Zone Starts, he stands out even further as a guy who generally pushes play in the right direction.
The fact that his team suffered from a low shooting percentage during his ice time can actually be a reason for optimism; there's little reason to believe that an individual player can have much influence on team shooting percentage, so there's an argument to be made that poor puck luck undermined his basic offensive stats to some extent.
Special Teams
Bergfors generally has received 2nd-unit power play time in his career so far, and has performed reasonably well there; one would think that over the course of the season he may be able to earn a steady PP job with the Preds, who have struggled in recent years with the man advantage. He has received no significant penalty-killing work in the last two seasons.
Shot Chart
Here's a look at where Bergfors fired even-strength shots from last season. Blue represents light frequency, yellow is medium, red is the RED HOT DANGER ZONE! Sorry, just got a little excited there:
Blast From The Past
Back in December of last year, Jeremy at Section303 saw the discussion about Bergfors hitting the trade market in Atlanta and started banging the drum to bring him to Nashville:
The question remains though: why is he on the trade block already? Is it an attitude issue? Is he too offensive minded? Is it purely a "his contract is expiring" thing? Typically, with players that would be rentals, their clubs like to get the most out of them before they ship them out at the trade deadline. While that still may be the case in Atlanta, you have to admit, it’s pretty early to be hearing active trade rumors surrounding a player.
So, is this the "finisher" the Predators have been looking for? Yes, he’s not a true "finisher" but, let’s face it, on this team, he’d be as close as it gets.
Video Highlight
I'm one of those guys who's always yelling "Shoot" during a 2-on-1, and Bergfors teases the pass to perfection here:
Outlook For 2011-2012
The positive: Bergfors finds a home on the power play and alongside one of Nashville's playmakers to become the younger version of what Steve Sullivan had been for the last few years, and hits the 20-goal mark once again.
The negative: He listed BBQ as his favorite food in the Preds' media guide, and is now playing in Nashville. Hopefully he doesn't outweigh Dustin Byfuglien by Christmas.
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Good post
I like the shot chart. From his size he definitely doesn’t seem like a banger in front of the net, so seeing that red right there in front of the net leads me to believe he’s good at getting into the gaps on the side away from the puck and getting shots off (ala Teemu selane, but not as good).
by RemoWilliams84 on Sep 26, 2011 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Bergfors biggest issue in Atlanta was a lousy system implemented by awful coaches. He wasn’t the big body, grinder preferred by Craig Ramsey or Rick Dudley. He’s a smaller, offensive guy who’s not going to bang around alot, but he generally plays smart hockey and knows how to find open ice. I think he can be a great addition, as long as the Nashville coaching staff understands not everyone conforms to a specific ideal. If they know their players and know how to get the best out of them, then Niclas will put up decent numbers.
Great article...
I put him down for16-20 goals but would love to see him get over 20 and depending on his linemates, he might have the ability to do that. I’m also thinking that having him on a line with Colin Wilson would be dangerous….for the opposing team. BWAHAHAHAHA!!
by HardCorePredFan316 on Sep 26, 2011 12:41 PM EDT reply actions
Value vs. Need.
One thing we shouldn’t lose focus of is what the team actually needs in terms of improved goal output and what value any given player may provide for us. If, for example, Bergfors matches Sullivan’s goal output from last season, it’s better value for the dollar, but it doesn’t improve the teams offense.
Bottomline is, Bergfors was a nice, cheap pickup this summer, but he’s not the answer to getting us out of the bottom 3rd in GPG.
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Sep 26, 2011 12:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
philosophy change could do the trick
Half way through the year we saw the team’s philosophy change from trying to win while scoring as little as possible to trying to score a minimum 3 times a game. A larger emphasis on offense and more drive to score could also get the team out of the bottom of the league offensively, and without breaking the bank.
Keys to the game: GA<GF
Whether that was indeed a strategy change or not, it clearly failed in the Canucks series. Unless you truly believe that Bergfors would have made the difference between winning or losing that series, then adding additional offense is still needed.
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Sep 26, 2011 2:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
a full season of practicing and implementing the strategy change could make the difference. I don’t believe there is an attainable player in the league that could make that kind of difference.
Keys to the game: GA<GF
I’ll put that strategy implementation in the whistling past the graveyard catagory, especially considering the most successful participant in this alleged new scheme is gone now from the Canucks series (Ward).
I know I’m casting seed before unfertile ground with some here, but we need to look at why the Canucks were able to shut us down as they did in order to see where we need the improvement to be made. If you can’t gain entrance into the other teams Dzone for more than about 2 seconds before the puck is taken away and turned up ice the other way, you simply can’t score goals. Will some supposed gameplan change with essentially the same players change really make the difference? One would have to be overly optimistic to think so, IMO.
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Sep 26, 2011 3:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Scratch that second use of the word change there.
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Sep 26, 2011 3:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ward was successful in the playoffs bc he is a playoff type player, strong on the puck and capable of muscling it up ice and toward the net. (which is why kessel was more effective than the sedins.)
i don’t see how some player the team could actually acquire could change that either, as any player who tries would only be focused on and checked off the puck. the preds aren’t going to bring in a Crosby, Ovi, or Gretzsky type, but a change in team play could lead to better puck movement going into and setting up in the offensive zone.
Keys to the game: GA<GF
by flyalder on Sep 26, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i feel i haven't been too clear
my belief is that a season of setting 3 goals as a minimum would give the team experience in trying to make something happen offensively. So when the playoffs start the team won’t be playing the waiting game for defensive lapses by the other team, they will have practice trying to force the defensive team into making mistakes.
Keys to the game: GA<GF
Why stop at 3 goals? What if the other team doesn’t want you to score 3 goals? Very simplistic to just make a stated goal to score more often, it takes the right talent to do that.
And let’s stop with the Crosby, Ovechkin nonsense, no one is suggesting any player like that is obtainable. But to suggest we simply can’t upgrade our offense despite many other teams doing so is offbase.
And it’s Kesler, not Kessel. ;)
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Sep 26, 2011 4:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
whoops on the kessel/kesler bit, but you get my point
what i am saying is that the best way to upgrade our offense would be to better utilize the skill level the team already has. without a philosophy change no attainable offensive player would make a huge difference, they may score a few more times than someone else in their position, but the team numbers would still be low.
take jeff carter for example. no one questions his offensive ability. if the preds had acquired him then based on last year’s numbers he would have been the preds highest scoring center by about 20 points. A good increase yes, but one that would cost $6M. However, if the team philosophy had more offensive drive to it (the 3 goal minimum), then those 20 points could be attained without excessive spending, by spreading them amongst the forwards already in in the system.
A top 3 forward would help, but dropped into the “win by scoring as few times as needed” mentality would make it a minimal improvement.
Keys to the game: GA<GF
All your assumptions rest on a hope that somehow Trotz can squeeze out even more from an average at best group of forwards than he already has. Only so much juice in a given piece of fruit.
If your no attainable player would help much scenario were true, why does anyone try to improve their roster? Here’s how obtaining a legit top 6 forward helps your cause. Instead of a 2nd line talent occupying a 1st line role, he now drops down a line, which in turn takes a 3rd line talent and drops them down from the 2nd line and so on. Even one talented player can in turn improve the makeup of all your lines. That’s why teams make deals.
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Sep 26, 2011 6:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Bergfors will be able to hit 20 if he gets regular ice time with top 6 forwards. If not he’s not going to be doing much offensively.
Hell on Ice/In Lou We Trust/Twitter
That's it. I'm sending you to El Paso to live with your real parents.
by Kevin Sellathamby on Sep 26, 2011 1:10 PM EDT reply actions
"top 6 forwards"
we’re still looking for one of those.
by RemoWilliams84 on Sep 26, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I can’t imagine that Philly would part with Wayne Simmonds.
by SilverRubicon on Sep 26, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
That story on THN is just a rehash of the foxsportstennessee article that came out a few days ago. The Flyers have no need to trade anyone and no real reason to do so (unless they get a really good return for someone). With both Richards and Carter departing this summer, trading away a top 6 forward wouldn’t seem to be something they would be thinking to do.
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Sep 26, 2011 2:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The goal from the video is very Steve Sullivan-esque
If we’re going to make comparisons to former Preds. Without a whole lot of studying Bergfors, that’s the first comparison that jumps out at me.
Tell me if I'm wrong...
but shouldn’t Bergfors be a RFA next season? I don’t think he is old enough or has enough years of NHL service.
Correct! I'll switch that up...
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and founder of HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to hockey equipment and accessories.
He was unrestricted this summer because Florida didn’t qualify him, but it does look like he’ll be Restricted again next summer (at least both NHLNumbers and CapGeek say so).
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and founder of HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to hockey equipment and accessories.
Even better…Poile sure loves his RFA’s…now if they can get a better fax machine we’ll be in business..;^)
by HardCorePredFan316 on Sep 26, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll go out on a limb and predict that
Bergfors will be a better Predator than Forsberg. (has someone already done that bit?)
I could see a big year for Bergfors if he can manage to avoid the Trotz doghouse. However, I find it comforting to set my expectations low, so I say 10 – 15 goals.
I would also like to point out that in the picture above Bergfors is a Thrasher, but the fans behind him are sporting a Peguins and a Panthers jersey. I’m very bothered by that for some reason. I mean… somebody there is at the wrong game.
"Get to the Choppa!"
From watching Bergie...
He can excel when given space, that’s why he did so well on a line with Kovalchuk because much pressure from the defense was put on Kovy. He can skate, handle, and shoot the puck well when given space.
"Though we do run the risk of one of the pucks generating human-like emotions, and yearning for a better life outside of its cold, violent existence…" -Ben
by ThrashersRecaps on Sep 27, 2011 7:53 AM EDT reply actions
Unless I’m missing something here, weren’t they traded for each other? Not sure when Bergie played with Kovy.
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Sep 27, 2011 11:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Maybe he’s talking about video games?
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and founder of HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to hockey equipment and accessories.
Could well be. The divide between reality and fantasy has narrowed significantly the past decade or so……….
Belarussians play better as a family.......get AK46!
by Grizzledbear on Sep 27, 2011 6:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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