The Predators' PR Problem: Time to Take the Brand Out of Brentwood, onto Broadway
There's a place at the intersection of Broadway and Fifth Avenue, in which kids all across North America dream about eventually playing. Y'know...the place by Rippy's and Tootsie's that was originally built for one reason, but now houses concerts through much of the year. It's that big stage, where people stand and cheer for talented people, playing together at the height of their professional careers.
Y'know...the Ryman.
I have a friend with whom I circumnavigate the lower bowl of the Bridgestone Arena during intermissions. Attending about 20 games a year, but not getting the remaining games on Vandy's cable, my friend has a unique perspective on the Predators. A fan from the beginning, he remembers every player to ever wear the blue and gold, but couldn't tell you hyper-specifically what's going on with the team now. And whereas some people who speak out of ignorance of the team's current situation might annoy me, I appreciate his ability to stay detached from the emotional ebb and flow of the season and make judgments grounded in the long view.
We always walk by the silent auction table and he often makes the same joke about the team still selling Peter Forsberg's old grocery receipts. He doesn't have to say much else--his point is well taken. I could argue until I'm blue in the face about the team's improvements since the fire sale or its chances this season and it wouldn't change popular perception: the Predators are an organization with just a brief brush with super-stardom in its history, with just one "Cup contender" team.
I'd like to say hell with popular perception--what do they know?--but unfortunately a perception problem is exactly what's facing the Predators organization now. In the NHL, Nashville is viewed as a rest stop, not a destination. And it's a self-fulfilling prophesy. In a capped league, star players only go where they think other star players want to be.
The Predators never developed a truly prime-age elite talent from prospect to pending free agent until Suter, Weber, and Rinne. They've never attracted one in free agency either.
Consider the big players Nashville has signed: Paul Kariya, Jason Arnott, Steve Sullivan, and J.P. Dumont. They were all great players. But they were also all past-prime players with families: perfect customers for what the Predators were selling: a great place to live and raise a family.
That pitch hasn't changed. Barry Trotz parrots the line when asked about his star blueliners. Ryan Suter said it verbatim yesterday, at his All-Star game media scrum:
If he had his druthers, Ryan Suter said, he doesn't want to get traded. "Nashville is a great place to live and raise a family." #Flyers
— Sam Carchidi (@BroadStBull) January 27, 2012
And I don't think Ryan Suter and Shea Weber are disingenuous when they praise Nashville as a place to live. They've just got their entire post-career life to raise a family and settle down. They have a much smaller window to play their best hockey and take a serious run at a Stanley Cup.
That's why Barry Trotz, David Poile, and the rest of the Predators organization need to change their tune. Stop selling Nashville as a suburb and start selling it as a stage. Nashville needs to be a place players come to challenge for the Stanley Cup every year, with private schools and income taxes being small things that tip the scale against Detroit, not major selling points.
Of course, Poile has intimated as much: that such a sea change in the Predators goal and commitment to winning is coming. But seeing is believing, at least for the people who really need to believe, if the whole thing is going to work:
"I think that's the hardest part, you look at the past and seeing guys go through your team like Forsberg, Timonen, Hartnell -- you go down the list, all you see is guys leaving. You want to believe him [Poile], they've got the right things in mind. If they say they're going to do it [increase payroll], then they should do it and we've got to trust them." --Shea Weber
Sure, the Predators look good now, fifth in the Western Conference. But let's be real: the Predators are still a hard-working team with a great goalie--the same formula as always--a formula that, frankly, hasn't won crap. And a commitment to winning means, for Ryan Suter and Shea Weber, a monetary investment. The kind of money that says, "after you two get raises, we're still going to spend that extra $10 million to get you help." Why would a premier athlete take a hometown discount, just to see the savings pocketed by an already wealthy group of owners?
Being a perennial cup contender is hard. But the hardest part is developing a core of superstars and young complementary pieces. Check!
Now Poile needs to simply finish the job: go add the two pieces that will help this team go deep in the playoffs. The way this market shakes out, a Zach-Parise-type might not be in the cards. But Weber and Suter understand that--and have said as much. Poile just needs to pay it forward. Showing he's not afraid to spend money is as important as actually spending it.
An Ales-Hemsky-type or two will be costly but well worth it. Just one or two forwards will dramatically change the complexion of this roster. Instead of Bourque, Tootoo, Spaling, Smithson, Halischuk, and Smith being the bottom six, they will be the pool from which Trotz selects the most dangerous fourth line in hockey.
If Poile stands pat at the deadline--both in keeping Suter and not adding another forward--he either drastically overestimates this team's Cup chances, the Predators' appeal to Suter, or both. If I can log onto capgeek.com on July 1, 2012 and see the Preds in the bottom three payrolls, so can Ryan Suter and Shea Weber.
Preds fans don't need any excuses this time. As long as there are three-point games, there will be parity. And as long as there is Calgary, there will be delusional teams, overestimating their chances, inflating a seller's market.
Mr. Poile, you have the chance to fundamentally alter the perception of the Predators organization forever and for better. No "hockey asset" is more valuable than that. It's time to make the Bridgestone Arena the biggest stage on Fifth and Broad.
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well said. no need to discuss much further. And there isnt much argument against this thinking. Pay the money for the extra talent and to Suter/Weber. It will be costly now but not as costly as if Poile doesnt pay these guys. It will mark the end like he did in Wash of so many years ago.
NICE
you hit it out of the park… er, i mean scored a goal from the upper deck. my only disagreement is poile has waited too late. maybe it was the owners, who knows. either way the time for the move was LAST summer. it would be nearly impossible to get a real “top 6” impact guy now w/o giving up a needed player. we wont get parise for blum and a pick. hemsky isnt a game changer. heck, hes rarely healthy.ruutu adds grit and could help, but isnt a long term building block. once the season is over chances are a little better to get a true scorer w/o giving up a current important piece. trouble is we cant sign a ufa til suter is one also. it better be by trade or hes gone. even then w/ the hostage holding he and weber are doing it may not be enough.
While I can't speak for the validity of this guy,
I do know that I read his stuff because he writes about the Flyers.
Most interesting part of this for me is about half way down.
It is believed that Nashville general manager David Poile has gotten a commitment from ownership to go to the maximum of the salary cap for next season.
All kidding aside...
Good point made on changing the perceptance of Nashville as a farm team for the rest of the league. I say Poile’s gotta be a buyer at the deadline, and not because I really see this team being that far away from the Cup, but it will be necessary to show Suter and Weber that we are will to spend for talent. Wonder what the rest of the guys in the locker room think about that…
Farm team?
Cody Franson, Mike Santorelli, Cal O’Reilly, Scottie Upshall, Dan Hamhuis, Scott Hartnell, Adam Hall, Karlis Skrastins.
Really? Farm team?
World Wide Weber.
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer
Those guys
developed year and left.
People used to say the Montreal Expos (Grissom, Martinez, Deshields, Walker, Rojas. Guererro, Hill, Alou, Floyd, Cordero) were great for the Expos when they were cheap. After they played their way into bigger $$$, the cash-strapped Expos traded them for cheap prospects. They were a MLB farm team for their major league peers.
Nashville, at some point, may develop a rep (if they haven’t already) as being a team that can’t hold onto its stars. Even though I don’t think its money in this case (Rinne got top dollar, and for all we know the Twins have been offered similar).
Your examples of former Preds are good examples of ‘farm team’, but those guys don’t compare to the Twins. Keeping Suter and/or Weber will trump the farm team perception. Plus, gives fans and the League reason to believe stars of tomorrow (Wilson, Smith, Blum, Josi, Ellis) won’t be going anywhere at first chance, either.
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
The Expos did lose all their good players, but they were also a terrible team in a terrible baseball market. I think a better MLB team to compare the Preds to is the Brewers, a team that has had success, but doesn’t have the firepower to get it done in the playoffs. When their star players contracts run up, they get raided by the bigger spenders in the league. They have to rely on their farm system to restock on stars, though from time to time they will trade for a rental star for the playoffs.
The early 90s Expos
were one of the top 10 best teams in baseball 1992-1994, its just that in baseball you had to be one of the top 4 teams to make it (and in 1994, the strike ended the season when the expos were the best team) to the playoffs.
Similarly, although I was too young to remember, the early 80 Expos again the Expos were a top 10 team from 1979 to 1983, with Gary Carter and Andre Dawson, but again kept falling short. If only MLB had a 16 team playoff bracket….comparatively, if the NHL had such a stringent system, the Preds would have only made the playoffs once in their existence.
The Expos actually had decent attendance throughout the 70s and most of the 80s; its been debated why the fan support fell of the map, but I am sure the inability to hold onto fan favorites played a role.
The Expos kept letting stars go and kept replenishing with youth throughout, much like the Preds. Only it took some time to rebound from the loss of their 80s stars, and they never recovered from the loss of their 90s stars. So, like you said, they ended up a terrible team. But it wasn’t always like that.
The Brewers, Twins, are modern day examples. But the Expos are also a good lesson that counting on the well of youth to replenish your club isn’t indefinite, sometimes the well runs dry. Sometimes, the stars you lose are irreplaceable.
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
by PekKarlsson on Jan 28, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
As a Phillies fan, I can fully back up just how good a team the Expos were for many years back in the 80’s and 90’s. What killed them was the ever increasing disparity in payrolls that developed over the years, something that would do us in as well if there were no cap in the NHL.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 2:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Was any of that disparity driven by ticket sales? I don’t know much about the Expos.
World Wide Weber.
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer
It’s all inter-related. As the disparity in payrolls grew, so did the on field disparity, which in turn killed off the fanbase.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 4:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Credit where credit is due
the parity of the NHL salary cap system is the best thing going.
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
My point was that, other than Scott Hartnell-firesale, we didn’t really ‘lose’ these guys. We gave them away. We didn’t need them.
World Wide Weber.
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer
True
but before now, how many stars have the Predators developed that were worth keeping?
Timonen, Hartnell, Hamhuis, Vokoun. That’s the bulk of them, may be forgetting some one. Each one, walked away (or Vokoun, traded away) from the Preds to $$$ greener pastures. Feeds into farm team perception.
Giving away Franson as a favour for the Lombardi contract, reinforces it. Its not like they used the savings to bring anybody in.
Signing Rinne alone didn’t do it, i think they are going to sign one of the Twins to help change that perception.
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
by PekKarlsson on Jan 28, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
Franson, I really liked the guy, but he needed more seasoning. Not really ‘farm team’ example, though, with the trade. Not going to pay Hamhuis what he was not worth, to us. Vokoun was traded because of his blood clot problem and Mason played so well. Not really the ‘farm team’ example, either. Our goalie situation doesn’t fit the ‘farm team’ system, at all. The Preds’ goalie story is pretty interesting. So is Kimmo’s, who we got from the Kings so that we wouldn’t choose one of their guys in the expansion draft. Garry Galley ( had to look that up) , which is hilarious seeing as how Galley played 3-4 more years and Kimmo is an all-star.
World Wide Weber.
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer
the perception of farm team is out there, and has some basis
“I think that’s the hardest part, you look at the past and seeing guys go through your team like Forsberg, Timonen, Hartnell — you go down the list, all you see is guys leaving,” Weber said. “You want to believe him [Poile], they’ve got the right things in mind. If they say they’re going to do it [increase payroll], then they should do it and we’ve got to trust them.”
If the Captain is under the impression that ‘all you see is guys leaving’, Poile and ownership have to actively work to change minds. His and/or
Suter’s. It will only benefit trying to keep guys in the future.
Vokoun, Hamhuis, Timonen, and Hartnell are very good players, stars, on their teams. The Preds would absolutely liked to have kept them, just not at the price, like you said. Which plays into the ‘farm team’ portrayal; once a guy gets so good he is deserving of more money, he can no longer be a Pred.
You and Poile aren’t gonna convince me until you and Poile convince Weber and/or Suter!
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
I’m saying they weren’t ‘leaving’, they were sent. Well, not Forsberg. He didn’t come back here to play after his retirement because we wouldn’t have him, I would guess. He DID get to play us for his last NHL game, right?
That wasn’t exactly what I said about money. I’m more along the thought that if a player thinks he is worth too much money, let someone else pay him that money.
My final thought on this for today: How many of you people cheer for Suter when he is on the ice? I only started recently. I just figured other people were doing that while I was cheering for Klein. and Wilson. And Leggy.
World Wide Weber.
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer
I’ve been watching Suter pretty carefully for a few years now… I’m trying to remember exactly, but I think I first started paying him serious attention my freshman year of college? That year, I stopped playing competitive hockey, so I started watching the Dmen more closely because I missed playing the position and understood it the best). Also, before that I was obsessed with Paul Kariya.
Hands go uuppp..... AND THEY STAY THERE!
-nashvillepredators-
It’s all on Poile and the Preds now, turning point for the organization and hockey in Nashville.
Show us and these guys the money, put up or shut up, just get this done!
agreed
basically what Ive been trying to say for awhile. Well put. Thank you.
Exactly
The fans have shown up (literally this season) and done their job to make this a real hockey town. Now it is time for the ownership group, David Poile, and the entire Nashville Predators organization to step up and make this team the best team in the league. (not necessarily saying that means spending to the cap every year, but make a solid commitment)
by Preds of State on Jan 28, 2012 2:44 AM EST up reply actions
disagree
my take is that Poile has shown the money ($49M) but they want to be on a redwings style org that will at least spend to the cap on whoever is available to fill out their roster and compete for a cup for 20 years in a roll.(Props to Ken Holland)
but Poile has been through ownership changes and just (a month or so ago) got the endorsement to spend some money. but trades for game changers are difficult and take time and also take certain things away from our current roster…..
Poile has made trades in the past and my guess is that he is patiently waiting on the right guy to become available. everybody has heard all the regular names in the rumor mill but Poile usually surprises by who he gets….patience friends and have a little faith. this could be the year for exciting things in Nashville!
by jeffery101y on Jan 28, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
Poile usually surprises by who he gets?
Well, I guess if by that you mean the let down of only getting people like Hlavac, Boyd or the infamous Mr. Nobody in previous years, yes, that would be surprising. Poile’s positive surprises have been far fewer than his, shall we say, less positive one’s.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 2:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Fisher was a positive surprise
and a welcome change of pace from the waiver wire, scrapheap guys that sometimes work out (Ward, Goc, SK, SOB, Bouillion) and sometimes don’t (Guite, Eaves, Bergfors, Hillen, Bonk, De Vries).
Morrow, Ryan, Ruutu, Carter, Jokinen….somewhere in there may be another Fisher. And he has loads of caproom and real dollars to spend, if all the rumours of ‘mid point/up to the cap’ permission to spend are true. Now is the time; Weber, Suter, and Rinne, the PP, and overall team scoring may never be this good all at the same time in Nashville. Poile has 30 years of conservatism, loads of first round exits, and one lousy trip to a Conference Final. He has to give the Franchise the best chance to win, and not be so stingy with dollars and prospects. Otherwise, this will be another brick in his 30 year wall.
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
Fisher is the one post-sell off acquisition of significance in the sea of non-significant acquisitions, hopefully we go Fish-ing again in that pond this time around. :D (I’ll be in Vegas all the week). :D
My fear now is that Poile may well offer up a substantial package of prospects/picks and still either get out bid by someone else or not have anyone worth trading all that for. Would be a shame to give up, let’s say, a 1st round pick and a Blum, Ellis or Josi type to acquire a player no better (or worse) than some of the players who were UFA’s last July.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 3:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
How deep is the draft looking this year?
World Wide Weber.
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer
Lot’s of quality Dmen in this draft class………..now Poile will never make a deal! :/
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 4:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Good point
DonBorvio and you were discussing whether more players were available now or last summer…..
I am neither here nor there on that, but I have no doubt the price has gone up, since there are alot of buyers, and few sellers.
The only exception may be Carter, depending if C-bus just wants to get away from that contract and how badly.
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
Excellent article Dirk. While I’m a Flyers fan, I want my local team the Preds to do well too. One person who might influence Suter to stay would be Jeff Carter. And by all reports he’s being shopped. It would probably take both a significant commitment by ownership (11 year contract! that might be hard to swallow) and maybe parting with one of the young defensemen and/or someone like Lindback to get the deal done.
The problem for Poile is that he can’t make an error here, unlike Paul Holmgren, or for that matter Bob Howsam, who get mulligans.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
Whoops, meant “Sam”. Apologies.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
Carter is a huge investment
but he is a young 30 goal sniper,
and for many of those 11 years, that cap hit is a good deal….
plus, if it convinces one or both Suter/Weber to stay by helping make a deep run this year,
its great value for the franchise.
Carter may be a buy low candidate, too. He cost Voracek and a 1st (Couturier)? He could probably be had for a decent prospect and a Preds first, which would be low round. Maybe Blum or Watson and the least of the desirable goalie prospects (minus Pickard, no trade value).
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
by PekKarlsson on Jan 28, 2012 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Very well said (sound like me, LOL!).
I hadn’t seen that quote from Weber before, very telling indeed.
Quite frankly, Poile, and the organization as a whole, has put themselves in a tight spot that didn’t have to be that way. Surely they must have known that their pending UFA star players were looking at what the organization would do after last seasons playoff performance. What they got was Bergfors. That’s not what a serious organization does to improve their team and both Suter and Weber know that.
Now what we’re left with is the Roy’s and Hemsky’s of the hockey world at the trade deadline. This is what happens when you hold your cards to long.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 12:23 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Roy, Leino, Boyes, Hemsky, Eberle, Morrow, Carter (again), Nash, Parise, Perry, Ryan, Getzlaf, etc. All possible to be moved by the deadline. I could list even more if you want.
"We want to keep beating them...to break their pride and break their season...is a huge thing for us." - David Legwand
I’ll also put the keibosh on Perry, Ryan, and Getzlaf, since the organization is on record (correct me if I’m wrong) as saying that if they move their top talent, they don’t want draft picks or prospects, they want someone who will contribute right away, and since we aren’t going to move Suter it seems, I don’t know who we would give up for them that wouldn’t end up hurting us.
by Preds of State on Jan 28, 2012 3:26 AM EST up reply actions
and Hemsky is extremely injury prone from what I hear.
by Preds of State on Jan 28, 2012 3:27 AM EST up reply actions
The point was options now > options last summer.
"We want to keep beating them...to break their pride and break their season...is a huge thing for us." - David Legwand
True
but who could have known that Anaheim was going to tank as much as they have this year, to the point that they would be selling off their big talent? And at the beginning of the season people were expecting Edmonton to come out of the gate buzzing with their young talent.
Yes there are more now, but GMs can’t be expected to know every year who is going to tank and who is going to find the right mix. That is why the mid-season trade is so risky.
That being said, I’m assuming that Poile guessed, as you have, that there would be more talent available now than in the pre-season.
by Preds of State on Jan 28, 2012 3:47 AM EST up reply actions
maybe
we can trade Erat and Blum for Ryan :)
hockey connoisseur. t-shirt addict. not famous. nerd.
by Shawn Kehoe on Jan 28, 2012 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
I would miss Erat just because he's been here for SO LONG... and I'd miss him "UUUUUUUUUUH"s during interviews....
but I’d take that.
Hands go uuppp..... AND THEY STAY THERE!
-nashvillepredators-
DonBorvio, I don’t mean to be rude here, but it’s tough to have a conversation like this if red herrings keep getting tossed into the discussion. Every player you listed, save the Buffalo duds, Hemsky and Carter, have only in the most specious ways been hinted at as being available on the trade market. We need to deal with what players are actually available, not who theoretically could be available.
The players on your list who are likely available, Roy, Boyes, Leino (now there’s a UFA bust!) and Hemsky all prove the point I’m making that what’s out there now is well short of what was available back last July.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 2:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Every player you listed, save the Buffalo duds, Hemsky and Carter, have only in the most specious ways been hinted at as being available on the trade market.
It’s been only a few weeks since the Anaheim GM said anyone outside of Koivu & Selanne could be available. Despite their recent run, those guys are at least in the conversation.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and a guy who can help you save money on all things hockey-related at Hockey Gear HQ.
They’re in the converation as being possibly available for a roster player of similiar ability. Is that something we could even do without hurting our team as much as helping it?
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 2:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It’s possible – for example, might a combination of SK74 + Blum + high draft choice land a quality player?
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and a guy who can help you save money on all things hockey-related at Hockey Gear HQ.
I can’t see the Ducks letting Ryan go for just that. I’d think they’re looking more for a Couturier type in return for him, someone who can play now but also has huge upside as well.
One guy I really wish hadn’t got hurt for likely the rest of the season who could have been a real nice pickup for us was Gionta out of Montreal. Fits perfectly with the way we play here. Yet another problem with waiting for trade deadline acquisitions, as some of those available players get put on the shelf with injuries. Wonder if Plekanic could be had?
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 3:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
its worth that long overdue phone call to Montreal … maybe we can’t afford the long distance … like Plekanec a lot
by el pucko on Jan 28, 2012 4:13 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I’ll offer up all my unused phone minutes if it helps make it happen. :D
Interestingly, we passed over Plekanic in his draft year and drafted some real, umm, “gems” in place of him. Time to right a wrong! :)
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 4:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Great job, Sam.
You really hit the nail on the head here.
With the number of players in need of contracts before next year, I sure hope the owners have their checkbooks ready to go.
The revenue sharing rules have been the bigger handicap.
As I understand it, the current CBA and revenue sharing rules encourage small market teams to spend to the midpoint, and penalize them if they spend more. I do think the ownership has put their financial house in order, but has been handcuffed. If they spend past the midpoint, the revenue sharing gets reduced. In other words, every dollar they spend over the midpoint costs them more than that dollar. I think they are counting on the new CBA to remove that restriction.
Nashville is doing all the right things to generate revenue, but they do not have the same streams available that the large markets get. Let’s face it. A national advertiser is not going to pay as much to put their logo in our arena as they would in Philly. After all, we might get 1 home national cable broadcast and have never had a national network broadcast of a regular season game. Philly will be on national TV almost weekly.
The big market teams
probably won’t be fond of writing over the full revenue-sharing cheque for a cap team. If you are a cap team, you should either be standing on your own two feet financially, or have an owner that is willing to lose a few of his own bucks, not the Rangers or the Canadian teams.
It is reasonable to expect the Preds to be a mid-point team. That suffices to both build a competitive contender year after year and still get the revenue sharing cheque, max amount.
The one thing that is rumoured to change will be changing the floor; small market teams HAVE to spend ~50 M on salary, when in 2006 the ceiling was 39 M. When League revenue has gone up proportionally, I doubt the Blue Jackets, Canes, Preds, Panthers, and Coyotes earn 25% more money even after the cheque, yet they are forced to spend 25% more.
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
If that is the case, then the big market teams feel that they should be able to buy a cup. Revenue sharing is supposed to help keep the small market teams competitive. I would rather see the NHL follow the NFL model than that of MLB. I think the NFL is more interesting because all teams have the same opportunities to succeed. In the MLB model, the Packers would be bottom feeders. Meanwhile, in baseball, I am sick of seeing each season started with either the Red Sox or Yankees favored to win it all. That may be good for the major markets, but it is bad for the health of the league. The current NHL model still requires each team to manage its resources wisely and make an honest effort at growing their business. Removing the mid-cap revenue sharing limit would encourage competition.
Don’t get me wrong here, I would love to see the Preds make a move…but this post has more holes than Swiss cheese.
Consider the big players Nashville has signed: Paul Kariya, Jason Arnott, Steve Sullivan, and J.P. Dumont. They were all great players. But they were also all past-prime players
That’s just false. Dumont had his best years here by a long shot. Arnott and Sully also consistently played some of the best hockey of their careers here. Not to mention that, along with Lombardi and Forsberg, they were regarded as some of the most valuable commodities on the market when they were acquired. You think Forsberg and Kariya came here to raise a family or live in mild climate? Seriously? Also, isn’t everyone clamoring for DP to add a player exactly like one of them right now?
Nashville is viewed as a rest stop, not a destination.
A track record of adding the guys above, along with Fisher last year discredits this to some degree, particularly if you acknowledge the fact that we actually have to compete with the rest of the league when it comes to acquiring established players. …and it’s not like he hasn’t added the Ruutu/Hemsky types before with guys like Silinger and Perrault. The fact is that you just can’t expect to sign or trade for the cream of the crop every season, especially when some of the cream you do have isn’t willing to sign. Weber and Suter are adding to the uncertainty in that regard.
At some point you have to man up and go to the party with whoever you manage to round up. And if all you have is our current roster, you’re good enough to scare the holy hell out of all but one team in the best division in hockey…and I get the sense that even the Wings don’t want to draw us in a series.
by Marcus Newman on Jan 28, 2012 9:36 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Lombardi
was sought after, as was Arnott.
I don’t think alot of the competition was willing to invest as heavily in Arnott, especially to commit a 5 year, 22 M deal. Not sure if he was THAT sought after.
Kariya was coming off a major down year, and I don’t remember alot of teams willing to pay him 4.5 a year for 2 years. There were talks of him going back to California and Vancouver, not for that money. Still, Kariya was still name-brand, and you are right, it is evidence that good players can CHOOSE to come here.
Buffalo walked away from Dumont’s arbitration award, and based on his numbers to that time, and other 2nd/3rd liners they had for cheaper, it was the right decision. Dumont was young though, so you can’t say he was past his prime.
Sullivan re-signing with the team after the lockout was an example of a good player choosing to stay here, Sullivan re-signing in 2009 was not.
The one name you mention that probably doesn’t fit is Forsberg. Isn’t a good example, since he didn’t choose to stay; when he was planning a comeback, he was reported to only consider teams he had played with before, and later clarified, Philly or Colorado. Given the choice, he didn’t choose Nashville.
On the whole though, the Preds have brought some good players here though its been some time ago. They need to start doing that again. And, more importantly, keep their young superstars and future stars in the making. One of Weber/Suter is a good sign to the NHL and Pred fans that they can develop and keep their own.
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
by PekKarlsson on Jan 28, 2012 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
Pre-ownership fiasco vs. current situation.
Prior to the great sell-off of the summer of 2007, this organization did a good job of adding quality players to the roster, particularly in the two years after the lockout (and even in the year before the lockout). It’s the post sell-off era where there’s been a big fall-off in that area. Obviously, money is, or at least was, a big reason for not being able to attract big name players to come here, but we’re past that time of financial insecurity now.
Sitting today with a lower payroll than last season, almost a full 7M under the cap midpoint, leaves no excuse for why we weren’t more aggressive in the UFA/trade market this summer or for not, as of yet, making any deals during the season. I’ve said it before but it’s worth repeating, waiting till the trade deadline for the player you want to become available is a risky way to go about improving your roster.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 2:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I agree completely
Willing to perhaps overspend either in dollars or prospects to get a Carter, Richards, etc last summer, may have not only made the Preds a #1 seed contender, but perhaps Suter/Weber would have been more willing to commit, if not signed on the dotted lines already.
The big moves last year were to trade Franson as a favour to Toronto to take Lombardi’s contract, and to sign Bergfors. And to get a new fax machine. No one should blame Suter and Weber for waiting this out, Poile is playing with his pennies like it is June 2007 (at which time, it was necessary).
In hindsight, those Cap teams of the 80s and 90s were always a player or two away from being contenders rather than playoff also-rans. Poile has a chance this year to do something he’s never done; he is going to have to risk a little to do so, however.
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
Sitting today with a lower payroll than last season, almost a full 7M under the cap midpoint, leaves no excuse for why we weren’t more aggressive in the UFA/trade market this summer or for not, as of yet, making any deals during the season
Yes. You were right about Poile misjudging the free agent market this season. BUT, when you look at all the signings, there were far more bad deals than good deals. And to not be handcuffed during this July’s frenzy will be a great asset to the club. That being said, I know it doesn’t help today with resigning our guys, but I’d rather be big players in this offseason pool than last offseason. Lets hope Suter is a man of his word and gives us a fair shake.
hockey connoisseur. t-shirt addict. not famous. nerd.
Bottom line
the Preds have never signed a superstar in his prime. Dumont had his best years here because, unlike in Buffalo, the Preds could let him play on their top line. It was the same deal with Sullivan and Arnott—secondary scoring playing 1st line minutes.
Kariya was a nice example of the Preds attracting a star player, but I think my article is pretty explicit in delineating the present situation from 2006-2007. The fire sale ruined the Preds image in this regard—I don’t think you can read that quote from Weber and say otherwise.
If Weber can’t understand the situation that drove all of that…
World Wide Weber.
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer
I'm sure he can
But Poile can pimp how supportive the new owners are all he wants, until payroll goes up, why should Weber care?
Not true.
We just signed Rinne.
Suffer little children, and forbid them not, to come unto me: for of such is where the Stanley Cup can be found.
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Jan 28, 2012 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
So what we have are two awesome players that every other team would give a king’s ransom to get,who do not wish to spend their entire careers with a team that can’t get past the second round of the playoffs. Who can blame them? So now Poile has to put the money where his mouth is. He paid for Rinne and he has to pay for the twins-no ifs, ands, or buts.On the other hand, I disagree with Suter’s statement that he will wait until the deadline to sign in order to lessen the distraction. He has already upped the distraction by NOT signing. So what, exactly, is he REALLY waiting for? anyone know?
"I am you, you are me, and we are all together" Beatles
Apparently
to see what Poile does up to the deadline, and how the Preds fare in the playoffs.
Both of which, supposedly, will factor in his decision.
He’s a pending UFA, so before he commits here, I guess he wants to see all the cards on the table.
On the other hand, there is the possibility that Poile can do everything right (land 1 or 2 solid vets for the playoffs, offer him top dollar), the Preds can advance to the Western Final, and Suter STILL chooses to leave. Not knowing if that’s the case, Poile should do everything he can with the ball in his court. If he doesn’t, and Suter leaves, alot of ppl will think Poile/Preds are too smallmarket, cheap, conservative, etc. to be serious about winning, which may negatively impact future guys (Blum, Josi, Ellis, Wilson, Smith) and potential UFAs when mulling over Music City.
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
by PekKarlsson on Jan 28, 2012 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’d rec’d this post if I could figure out how to do that on the mobile version of the site, LOL!
Hmmm, time to download the android app, perhaps? :)
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 2:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
BUT
he cant sell the future to try and impress batman and robin w/ no guarantee of results. considering our salary i would love going after a real top 3 guy regardless of suter and webers status and go for a playoff run. if poile does that and either of them leave then he did his best regarding their future, this years playoff run and our future. thats all he can control. in the end the ownerships willingness to spend bigger bucks dictates his possibilities.
by predswilrule on Jan 28, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Not advocating selling the future
but what did Pittsburgh really give up for Hossa and Dupuis?
What did NJ really give up for Kovalchuk?
Prospects are security blankets; it is nice to have lottery tickets in the minors, but there are no guarantees Pickard, Blum, Watson, Beck, Latta, Bourque, Roussel etc. will ever be NHLers, let alone stars. But they all have varying degrees of appeal to other teams due to success in the minors, draft status, etc.
I agree though we have no idea what ownership has really told Poile; his hands may be tied. But everything Poile says (the future will be different regarding spending) to the press indicates he is allowed to spend. You can’t get Bobby Ryan for free, unfortunately. And Bobby Ryan is easily worth 2 or three ‘may becomes’ or ‘could bes’.
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
Very true.
When you think about it, what teams gave up to obtain big time players in the recent past have hardly effected those teams that negatively. The Thrashers (Hossa and Kovalchuk and the Flyers (Forsberg) hardly made out like bandits with what they got in return for those players, and the teams that acquired those players didn’t really miss what they gave up for them.
Time to go “all in” for whoever may be out there who is a player of consequence.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 4:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Why isn't a Zach Parise trade feasible this year?
http://www.thefourthperiod.com/news/njd120123.html
Granted, this site might be total B.S., but the article says that the Devils want draft picks for Parise specifically, since they’re looking to move salary. Honestly, if that’s the case, Poile has as good a shot to get him as any. Actually, probably a better shot than anyone in the Eastern Conference.
If this is true, the Devils are likely orchestrating a bidding war, and who can blame them? But this deal, with the team we have right now, is definitely one we should be seriously considering. We have Radulov’s we could probably throw in. Jersey’s got a better chance of bringing him back than we do with Kovalchuk there to talk him into it.
As I’ve said before, I’d be on the phone every day with Lou L. about Parise’s availability, but as long as the Devils are in playoff contention, I just don’t see them moving ZP. Lou L. Has been in this spot before and has almost always held on to that pending UFA instead of trading him.
Good point about Rads though. The Devils, along with the Wings, have had great working relationships with Russian players over the years. If there’s a team that could convince Rads to come back to the NHL, it’s probably the Devils.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 4:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The article seemed to suggest that whether or not they’re in play-off contention, it doesn’t matter; the Devil’s need to trade him for financial reasons. Who knows, though, since they might rather have the revenues from a potential play-off run.
I would think that Devils are hoping (even praying) that the next CBA has another penalty free buyout period in it. Bye, bye Kovalchuk!
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Jan 28, 2012 11:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
We don't agree on much.
But that was a pretty good read Samuel.
I can tell you’ve finally been listening to me.
Suffer little children, and forbid them not, to come unto me: for of such is where the Stanley Cup can be found.
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Jan 28, 2012 7:54 PM EST reply actions

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