Predators @ Flyers Preview: Phrustrate Philly
by Dirk Hoag on Feb 2, 2012 9:31 AM EST
in Nashville Predators Game Previews
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PrintThe Nashville Predators' high-flying road show continues tonight with a game against the Philadelphia Flyers, one of the highest scoring teams in the NHL, but one which has also has shown vulnerabilty on their home ice at the Wells Fargo Center. Last month, the Erat-Fisher-Kostitsyn led the way for Nashville in a 4-2 win at Bridgestone Arena. Can they repeat the feat this evening in Philly?
Follow after the jump for the preview!
Tale Of The Tape
| Nashville (31-16-4) at Philadelphia (29-14-6) | |||||||
| NSH Offense vs. PHI Defense | PHI Offense vs. NSH Defense | ||||||
| 5-on-5 | |||||||
| GF/60 | SF/60 | Shoot % | GA/60 | SA/60 | Save % | ||
| NSH Offense | 2.3 (18th) | 26.9 (26th) | 8.6 (13th) | 2.3 (9th) | 30.7 (25th) | 925 (9th) | NSH Defense |
| PHI Defense | 2.7 (25th) | 29.6 (13th) | 908 (25th) | 2.9 (3rd) | 31.8 (5th) | 9.1 (7th) | PHI Offense |
| GA/60 | SA/60 | Save % | GF/60 | SF/60 | Shoot % | ||
| Special Teams | |||||||
| NSH PP vs. PHI PK | PHI PP vs. NSH PK | ||||||
| GF/60 | SF/60 | Shoot % | GA/60 | SA/60 | Save % | ||
| NSH 5-on-4 | 7.7 (2nd) | 48.7 (15th) | 15.9 (2nd) | 6.4 (18th) | 51.8 (18th) | 876 (18th) | NSH 4-on-5 |
| PHI 4-on-5 | 6.0 (14th) | 40.3 (2nd) | 851 (27th) | 7.2 (5th) | 49.3 (14th) | 14.7 (5th) | PHI 5-on-4 |
| GA/60 | SA/60 | Save % | GF/60 | SF/60 | Shoot % | ||
Philly is one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league in 5-on-5 play, and have a solid group of penalty killers, too.
Philadelphia Flyers
Despite being one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, the Flyers haven't been able to dominate on home, with an 11-7-4 record that ranks 26th in the NHL. On Tuesday, for example, they dropped a 2-1 shootout decision to the Winnipeg Jets.
Yes, they've got a gaping hole on their blueline with Chris Pronger shut down for the season, and yes, they covet Ryan Suter like nobody's business. If they can shore up their defense, Philadelphia would set themselves up as a prime Stanley Cup contender, but until then, they'll settle for outscoring opponents, and look who's leading the Flyers in goals these days:
For more on the Flyers, head on over to our SB Nation colleagues...
Nashville Predators
As regards the lineup, both Francis Bouillon and Jerred Smithson are described as probable by Josh Cooper, which could lead to some interesting roster decisions for Barry Trotz. If forced to scratch 3 guys tonight, who do you go with?
Regardless of who is scratched, however, what are we supposed to make of this bunch? Tuesday's stunning win at Minnesota has this band of youngsters (Brat Pack?) within sniffing distance of not just the Central Division lead, but the top spot in the Western Conference and the overall NHL, too. Dare we hope that something fundamental has developed within this squad over the last couple months, and that they legitimately belong up there with the NHL's elite, or are they simply playing over their heads right now, due for a fall back closer to .500 hockey at any time?
The analyst in me says the latter (those possession numbers, which are our best indicator of future performance, are still among the worst in the league), but the fan in me just sits back and enjoys the ride. None have contributed to, or benefited more from this hot streak than Pekka Rinne, who is gaining attention at the NHL offices for his recent numbers.
Things like "19-2-0 in his last 21" and "10 straight wins" , are obvious enough for anyone to grasp, but his fundamental metrics are on the rise, as well. Among goalies with at least 20 games played, Peks is now 7th in even-strength save percentage (our single best indicator of goaltending talent) with a .932. Earlier this season he was down in the 15-20 range, but as the roster has stabilized somewhat the leaks seem to have been plugged in the team defense in front of him.
Can Rinne deliver another shutdown performance against the hard-charging Flyers tonight in Philly? Tune in at 6:00 p.m. Central on FS-TN to find out...
UPDATE: It turns out that, somewhat surprisingly, Pekka will not get the start tonight, and Anders Lindback gets the nod instead. This marks the second time in recent weeks that the team is playing a high-profile Eastern Conference opponent, but the Predators are going with the backup instead of their #1 guy (recall the 3-0 loss to the New York Rangers last month).
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Scratches
Hillen, McGrats (though I would love to see the showdown with Shelley), and most difficult for me Bourque (I love that kid’s game) are who I feel will be scratched.
I want Ellis, Smithson, and Yip scratched but not going to happen.
by wrandsw on Feb 2, 2012 9:51 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Why would you want Smithson scratched?
I think he has a great impact on our defensive game
Preds fan from Hamilton, Ontario!
I want Smithson scratched
until we play at home and can dictate who he faces most of the time. He’s been out a while and will need to get his legs back and I’m not sure Philly is the team to do that against. But I know Trotzy loves Smitty’s game and trusts him more than just about any of our forwards, so I’m sure he’ll be out there. Not to mention we could sure use him on the dot…
by TitanPredBearFan on Feb 2, 2012 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
Don't get me wrong on Smithers
The guy should be labeled Mr. Pred. He embodies the predator way but we have four lines that can score when Smith centers hustlechuk. As for defensively, name one line that has not been defensively responsible in the games that Smithers has missed. And our PK has enough depth when 10,11,12,13,24,&74 are used. Even 22 & 57 can help it.
I only want McGrats to dress to literally play less than 4 minutes and have 2 fights.
by wrandsw on Feb 2, 2012 10:12 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
You are correct
Other players have shown responsibility on the penalty kill and regular defensive play. But I’d just feel a little more safe if Smithson was in the line-up. TitanPredBearFan, I understand you think he’s been slow, but why not allow him to get his legs running again against the Flyers? I think it be a great opportunity.
Preds fan from Hamilton, Ontario!
Agreed...
I think Hillen is much more solid defensively than Ellis. Plus, it doesn’t hurt Hillen to play 12-14 minutes a night, where Ellis should be getting 20+ to develop. I have noticed too that Ellis has been much less effective the last 4-5 games on the PP. Getting a lot of shots blocked or taking shots that ricochet out of the other side of the zone. I wonder if they are playing to trade him or may send him down if they sign a bigger vet D-man for the playoffs.
The streak won't last forever
But Pekka’s impressive play will.
Maybe the goals trail off a bit, but Pekka’s career (48-22-10, 2.23 GAA, 92.5 SVPCT) indicates he will not. He will help counter some of those possession numbers. He always has.
Scratches: Grats, Yip, Hillen. Ellis is fine as a 6th D in protected minutes that will see him improve over time; Hillen is a plug.
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
Yup.
Hands go uuppp..... AND THEY STAY THERE!
-nashvillepredators-
by davisca on Feb 2, 2012 5:57 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
No Pekka...
I understand giving the guy a rest, but if we are going to compete for the top spot we need all the points we can get, whether from the east or the west.
bad idea. Play Pekka!!
60% of the time it works every time
by Creeping Death on Feb 2, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Pekka just had a week off? Does he have the Kleinflu?
"We want to keep beating them...to break their pride and break their season...is a huge thing for us." - David Legwand
There's *some* logic to the choice
Gotta get Lindback out there at some point. Might as well do it now rather than in March. Why waste a quality start on a 50-50 chance?
It’ll be a test for the Preds for sure. If they can pull this out, it’ll say a lot about the team’s competitiveness.
R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
"You don’t motivate people; you activate something in them that already exists." -Guy Boucher
" I saw it, I called it, I still don't believe it!"--Pete Weber
And man oh man do I hope they pull it off.
Hands go uuppp..... AND THEY STAY THERE!
-nashvillepredators-
by davisca on Feb 2, 2012 5:59 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Perhaps...
The plan is to give Pekka a quick break, and start him on Saturday instead – a HUGE game against a division rival, where the points are MUCH more important than tonight (although tonight’s points are indeed important).
Hands go uuppp..... AND THEY STAY THERE!
-nashvillepredators-
I dunno
We all know that Pekka starts slow after a long break and I’d feel better if he played tonight to “warm” up for Saturday. Either we are showcasing Anders or Pekka’s got something going on that we don’t know about. Pekka plays MUCH better when he gets regular work and you could tell Tues. that he was a bit rusty just like everyone else. Just seems strange to me not to let Peks play tonight. And yes, I have my tin-foil hat on tonight :)
by TitanPredBearFan on Feb 2, 2012 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe
they’re showcasing Lindback for eastern conference teams (western too). What better way than against an offensive powerhouse. Teams may not need a #1 now, but down the road…. what’s NJ’s goalie situation once Brodeur finally retires?
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Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats & analysis, and managing editor of On the Forecheck.
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