FanPost

The need for a good forward? A look at GVT


Searching around the internet for different metrics I came across Games Versus Threshold (GVT) at Hockey Prospectus (GVT Overall Stats link) with a definition as follows (for both individual and team):

GVT (Individual)

Goals Versus Threshold. Developed by Tom Awad of Hockey Prospectus, GVT measures a player's worth in comparison to a typical fringe NHL player. GVT has two major advantages over most metrics: it's measured in goals, which are easily equated to wins, and it is capable of comparing players across multiple positions and multiple eras. GVT is the summation of OGVT, GGVT, DGVT, and SGVT.

GVT (Team)

Goals Versus Threshold for a team is equal to the team's goal differential. By definition Team GVT = sum of Player GVT - Replacement Level (which GVT defines as 1.5 goals per game or 123 goals per season).

I sorted out the Predators roster (any player who played one game with NSH) as follows:

Rk Player Team Pos GP G A PTS +/- OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
7 Pekka Rinne NSH G 73 0 5 5 0 24.6 -0.9 1.0 24.6
47 Shea Weber NSH D 78 19 30 49 21 9.7 5.7 0.0 15.4
82 Ryan Suter NSH D 79 7 39 46 15 6.7 5.3 0.0 12.0
88 Martin Erat NSH F 71 19 39 58 12 9.6 3.1 -0.9 11.9
115 David Legwand NSH F 78 19 34 53 3 7.5 2.8 0.5 10.8
123 Mike Fisher NSH F 72 24 27 51 11 7.3 3.8 -0.8 10.3
131 Patric Hornqvist NSH F 76 27 16 43 9 7.6 2.2 0.0 9.8
165 Sergei Kostitsyn NSH F 75 17 26 43 8 6.3 3.1 -0.6 8.9
201 Matt Halischuk NSH F 73 15 13 28 9 5.1 3.2 -0.6 7.7
288 Kevin Klein NSH D 66 4 17 21 -8 3.5 1.9 0.0 5.4
297 Colin Wilson NSH F 68 15 20 35 5 3.5 1.8 0.0 5.3
304 Hal Gill NSH-MTL D 76 1 12 13 -3 0.0 5.1 0.0 5.0
314 Andrei Kostitsyn NSH-MTL F 72 16 20 36 -1 3.9 1.2 -0.3 4.9
345 Roman Josi NSH D 52 5 11 16 1 2.5 1.5 0.0 4.0
346 Craig Smith NSH F 72 14 22 36 -9 4.8 0.3 -1.1 4.0
361 Jordin Tootoo NSH F 77 6 24 30 -5 2.7 1.0 0.0 3.7
392 Paul Gaustad NSH-BUF F 70 7 14 21 -1 0.6 2.6 0.0 3.3
396 Ryan Ellis NSH D 32 3 8 11 5 2.1 1.4 -0.3 3.2
410 Gabriel Bourque NSH F 43 7 12 19 -2 2.0 0.9 0.0 2.9
465 Nick Spaling NSH F 77 10 12 22 -7 -0.6 2.8 0.0 2.2
471 Alexander Radulov NSH F 9 3 4 7 3 1.1 0.5 0.5 2.2
476 Anders Lindback NSH G 16 0 1 1 0 1.0 0.3 0.8 2.1
512 Francis Bouillon NSH D 66 4 7 11 -4 -0.7 2.3 0.0 1.6
517 Jack Hillen NSH D 55 2 4 6 6 -0.5 2.1 0.0 1.6
624 Brandon Yip NSH-COL F 35 3 4 7 1 -0.1 0.6 0.0 0.5
665 Blake Geoffrion NSH-MTL F 35 2 3 5 0 -0.3 0.5 0.0 0.2
702 Jonathon Blum NSH D 33 3 4 7 -14 0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.1
723 Zack Stortini NSH F 1 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
724 Ryan Thang NSH F 1 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
782 Mattias Ekholm NSH D 2 0 0 0 -1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2
811 Niclas Bergfors NSH F 11 1 1 2 -2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3
816 Teemu Laakso NSH D 9 0 0 0 -1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3
837 Kyle Wilson NSH F 5 0 0 0 -1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.4
845 Brian McGrattan NSH F 30 0 2 2 -1 -0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.5
864 Chris Mueller NSH F 4 0 0 0 -1 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.6
945 Jerred Smithson NSH-FLA F 69 1 5 6 -5 -4.2 2.3 0.0 -1.9
954 Cal O'Reilly PIT-NSH-PHX F 33 2 5 7 -11 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -2.2

As you can see, the highest ranking Preds forward versus league wide players is Martin Erat at #88 overall(60th forward). Rounding out the top 5 for the Preds are Legwand at 115 (79th foward), Mike Fisher 123 (83rd) Patric Hornqvist 131 (88) and Sergei Kostitsyn 165 (111st forward).

Looks like we have a bunch of second and third line forwards playing on the top two lines to me. What say you?

This FanPost was written by an OTF reader, and does not represent the views of the editorial staff. Got something you'd like to share? <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/admin/entries/new?community_id=208&entry_type=FanPost" target="new">Post your own</a>!

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