FanPost

The New (Lower) Cap--An Analysis

As we all know the cap is going down for the 2013-2014 season. I feel (I know others disagree) that this is where the real opportunity lies during this off-season. The combination of teams buying out players to get under the cap, or trading high cap players for low cap players to the same end will significantly increase the available talent starting in July AND it will also depress the market for the available players since only about ½ of the teams will have any money to spend.

To get a better understanding of the real opportunity, I completed the spreadsheet below based upon the data on capgeek.com. It is actually very simple. I looked at how many players each team has already signed for next year and the dollars committed. I then looked at how many players each team would need to sign to get to a minimum of 24 players. I used the average salary of $1mm for these additional players.

I also added a column of significant RFA's as these are additional players that teams will need to decide upon. The analysis shows some interesting facts, for example nearly half the league has less than $5mm to spend not even taking into account their own RFA's. Several of these are already "out" of money. Allow me to highlight two GM's I would not want to be this summer.

Vancouver-With only 17 players signed they are already over the cap. If they simply fill the roster (using my assumptions above) they are over $7mm over. Of course we all expect them to buy out Luongo (no one is going to trade for that contract), but that only saves them a bit over $5mm. They will need to move at least one other $4-5mm player just to be able to have a team.

Boston-with 17 players signed they have less than $6mm of space. In addition, Tuuka Rask is an RFA, this year he made $3.5mm. Let's assume he gets $4mm. Now they have less than $2mm to sign 6 players, that is not possible, so again they are going to have to move at least one $4-5mm player just to have a team.

There are a lot more examples. Take a look at the chart. I can't wait to hear the comments.

Team

Players Signed

Cap Hit

Cap Room

# Needed to get to 24

Significant RFA's with 2012-13 Cap Hit

Additional Cap Hit (Assumes $1mm Average)

Cap Situation

Anaheim Ducks

24

$63.4

$0.9

0

Kyle Palmieri ($1.0)

$0.0

$0.9

Calgary Flames

19

$46.7

$17.6

5

$5.0

$12.6

Chicago BlackHawks

21

$62.7

$1.6

3

Nick Leddy ($1.1)

$3.0

($1.4)

Colorado Avalanche

22

$56.0

$8.3

2

$2.0

$6.3

Columbus Blue Jackets

16

$46.8

$17.5

8

Artem Anisimov ($1.9) Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.8)

$8.0

$9.5

Dallas Stars

17

$44.7

$19.6

7

$7.0

$12.6

Detroit Red Wings

19

$53.4

$10.9

5

Gustav Nyquist ($0.9) Jakub Kindl ($0.9)

$5.0

$5.9

Edmonton Oilers

16

$52.7

$11.6

8

Sam Gagner ($3.2) Magnus Paajarvi ($1.5)

$8.0

$3.6

Los Angeles Kings

14

$50.5

$13.8

10

Kyle Clifford ($0.9) Slava Voynov ($0.8) Jonathan Bernier ($1.3)

$10.0

$3.8

Minnesota Wild

17

$55.8

$8.5

7

Cal Clutterbuck ($1.4) Justin Falk ($0.8) Jared Spurgeon ($0.6)

$7.0

$1.5

Nashville Predators

16

$47.3

$17.0

8

Nick Spaling ($1.1) Matt Halischuk ($0.7) Roman Josi ($1.0)

$8.0

$9.0

Phoenix Coyotes

12

$40.0

$24.3

12

Lauri Korpikoski ($1.8) Mikkel Boedker ($1.1)

$12.0

$12.3

San Jose Sharks

15

$55.9

$8.4

9

T.J. Galiardi ($1.0) Jason Demers ($1.3)

$9.0

($0.6)

St. Louis Blues

16

$41.3

$23.0

8

Chris Stewart ($3.0) Patrick Berglund ($2.3) Alex Pieterangelo ($3.2) Kris Russell ($1.3) Kevin Shattenkirk ($1.3) Ian Cole ($1.3)

$8.0

$15.0

Vancouver Canucks

17

$64.4

-$0.1

7

$7.0

($7.1)

Boston Bruins

17

$58.4

$5.9

7

Tuuka Rask ($3.5)

$7.0

($1.1)

Buffalo Sabres

16

$48.7

$15.6

8

Cody Hodgson ($1.7) Jhonas Enroth (0.7)

$8.0

$7.6

Carolina Hurricanes

17

$56.7

$7.6

7

Jared Staal ($0.6)

$7.0

$0.6

Florida Panthers

19

$51.7

$12.6

5

Peter Mueller ($1.7)

$5.0

$7.6

Montreal Canadiens

24

$65.8

-$1.5

0

$0.0

($1.5)

New Jersey Devils

16

$40.0

$24.3

8

Matt D'Agostini ($1.7) Adam Henriquie ($0.8)

$8.0

$16.3

New York Islanders

14

$35.3

$29.0

10

Josh Bailey ($1.1)

$10.0

$19.0

New York Rangers

18

$51.5

$12.8

6

Ryan McDonagh ($1.3) Derek Stepan ($0.9)

$6.0

$6.8

Ottawa Senators

19

$43.5

$20.8

5

$5.0

$15.8

Philadelphia Flyers

25

$70.7

-$6.4

(1)

Eric Gustaffson ($0.9)

($1.0)

($5.4)

Pittsburgh Penguins

18

$56.4

$7.9

6

Tyler Kennedy ($2.0)

$6.0

$1.9

Tampa Bay Lightning

17

$60.1

$4.2

7

Benoit Puliot ($1.8)

$7.0

($2.8)

Toronto Maple Leafs

12

$45.1

$19.2

12

Nazem Kadri ($1.8) Cody Franson ($1.2)

$12.0

$7.2

Washington Capitals

20

$58.6

$5.7

4

Marcus Johannson ($0.9)

$4.0

$1.7

Winnepeg Jets

11

$35.6

$28.7

13

Blake Wheeler ($2.6) Bryan Little ($2.4) Zack Bogosian ($2.5)

$13.0

$15.7

This FanPost was written by an OTF reader, and does not represent the views of the editorial staff. Got something you'd like to share? <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/admin/entries/new?community_id=208&entry_type=FanPost" target="new">Post your own</a>!

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