Hello there; First a little background. NHL 11, Much like NHL 10, NHL 11 will include an online team mode. That is to say, you pick a position and play it all game while other human players play their respective positions. Last year, me and Michaeltastic played a bit on the xbox 360, but I think we'll be playing on the Playstation this year.

Long story short, I was wondering if there were any people on this site that had a PS3 and were interested in making a team with us. I haven't confirmed this with Michaeltastic, but I'm sure he'll be up for it. He's pretty good at scoring and I'm pretty good at defense so overall we're pretty flexible, and it could be a fun experience. If anyone's interested, reply here, and we'll try to get something together when the game comes out next Tuesday.

One of the more popular discussions among hockey's big wigs and fans is whether or not the NHL should realign the teams into different conferences and divisions. In the 1992-1993 season there were 24 teams and 4 divisions. The Prince of Whales Conference included the Adams and Patrick divisions. The Clarence Campbell Conference had the Norris and Smythe divisions. Then in the 93-94 season they changed it into different names and decided to go by geographical proximity. Another reason was that newly appointed Commisioner Gary Betman thought that because there would be confusion about the division names for the fans of the expansion teams (Anaheim Mighty Ducks and Florida Panthers) and the relocated team (Minnesota North Stars became the Dallas Stars). The Prince of Whales Conference became the Eastern Conference and the Clarence Campbell Conference became the Western Conference. The Atlantic, Northeast, Central and Pacific were now the names of the divisions.

The last time this was done was when the Nashville Predators came into the league back in the 1998-1999 season making 4 divisions 6. Now there were 28 teams which equaled out so that there were 14 teams per conference. Not until the 2000-2001 season, when the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Minnesota Wild came into existence, would every division have 5 teams each. So that has been the way it's been since. When you look at the geographical distribution of teams across North America you would say, "The map is lopsided! Most of the teams are on the eastern side." It's true, 19 of the 30 teams in the NHL would be considered in the east. Most glaringly would have to be Columbus which is 162 miles from Pittsburgh and Detroit which is 206 miles to Toronto and 220 miles to Buffalo.

If the teams were to be realigned geographically it would do no good to call it the Eastern/Western Conference, especially if they were to expand. Say, the NHL decides to add two new teams (say the Winnipeg Jets return and the Saskatoon Bears). So now you have 4 Canadian Teams in the East and 4 in the West. So since there are 32 teams the logical next step would be divvying up the remaining teams into 6 more divisions. If you look at where the Predators are located you would expect us link up with Florida, Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Which would be very interesting as these teams hardly ever make the playoffs and the fact that all these teams #1 goalies are ex-Predators!

Here is my mock up of what the divisions might look like. Don't take this too seriously but don't laugh either! It took me a while to come up with these.

x conference

nashville
florida
tampa bay
atlanta

toronto
montreal
winnipeg
ottowa

washington
carolina
philadelphia
pittsburgh

detroit
chicago
columbus
buffalo

conference y

nyr
nyi
boston
new jersey

saskatoon
calgary
edmonton
vancouver

colorado
dallas
st. louis
minnesota

anaheim
los angeles
san jose
phoenix

Of course, there are number of ways you could mess with it but I think if the NHL expands to 32  8 divisions of four teams would be the initial thought (like the NFL). Another source they could borrow from is the MLB with the AL/NL concept with teams on the west and east coast in both "conferences" which would make travel a lot more expensive to be certain.  Nothing would have to change about the Stanley Cup Playoff system unless they (the NHL) wanted it too. With 16 teams per conference half of the teams make it in todays playoffs which would make for more tension around playoff birth time. A team would still stick to their division schedule except that they play only 3 teams 6 times a season. In conference but other divisional opponents (12 in total) would still be played 4 times a season. So 18 plus 48 is 66, so guess what that leaves us... 16! Every team in the NHL could play each of the other conference teams. It's just a thought but it could happen, right?

Choosing a hockey team, or any sports team for that matter involves various factors. Usually this includes location of team, the style of play, and success of the paticular team. Back during the lockout although the timing was rather strange I fell in love with hockey mostly in part to a hockey videogame (ESPN NHL 2k5). My friend was a huge hockey nut and we played the game constantly, the love of the game led me to obsess over real hockey and I decided I needed a team to root for. Even though I always casually followed hockey growing up I always despised the Red Wings, and New Jersey Devils so those teams were definelty out. I also grew up in Indiana with the closest team being the St. Louis Blues their was little interest in that team as well. Slowly I whittled teams down and low and behold Nashville was the obvious choice for a few reasons.

1) They were a team on the rise finally cracking theplayoff barrier and having a solid series against Detroit and with oodles of young talent and plenty of speed.

2) Barry Trotz always seems to play a close hockey game with lots of intense forechecking and consistently roled out multiple lines with balance.

3) Steve Sullivan is my favorite player I have always had great respect for smaller players in any sport, especially hockey he could play hockey both ways and was an absolute speed demon.

It seemed at the time they were a team on the rise who sometime in the few years after the lockout would make a deep playoff run. Frankly as a fan I'm still waiting for that push through the playoffs. As a fan Im still very passionate about the Pred's But always wonder realistically if playoff success is in our future. Obviously having a low salary cap salary does effect us But our core players we pay is equal or more than that of most NHL teams. I wont get into specifics of these players plenty of posts/ articles of been written on the validity of these contracts.

The best Predators team of this decade was very deep and balanced and included the likes of Paul Kariya, Peter Forsberg, Steve Sullivan, Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell among many other soild NHL players. This team quickly got disposed in 5 games by the San Jose Sharks. Soon after this the team fire sale happened and we gave up lots of great players most notably Timonen and Hartnell to Philly and the notorious trade of Parent, and Upshall for Forsberg. The Predators to their credit seem to grind every ounce of talent out of every player and put them in to position to succeed, because of this they make the playoffs year in and year out But still have the same result a 1st round loss.

After the gut-wrenching loss to Chicago in 6 games I started to question if we ever will have the resources to actually compete for the cup. I'll admit giving such a battle and watching them win the cup gave me some optimism But the question is will we learn from it and get over the playoff glass ceiling or will we be forever doomed to good but not close to greatness. Regardless of what happens Im a Nashville fan for life i guess with a healthy dose of somewhat lowered expectations.

The question is then do Predator fans have a similar sentiment or is there far more optimism?   I wanted to get the pulse of Nashville fans and see what your expectations were?

As the summer starts to wind down and the players start to trickle back into the area to prepare for training camp, after the jump I've decided to outline for you today what I believe will be the biggest battle to keep an eye on as things unfold at training camp next month.

Chet Pickard (left) and Anders Lindback (2nd from left) will compete with Mark Dekanich for the opportunity to serve as Pekka Rinne's backup this season. Photo courtesy of t1.gstatic.com

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Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.
Robert Frost, "The Road Not Taken"

It's a timeless issue: do I stick with the safe bet, or pursue an exciting, yet wildly unproven option?  Should I follow the perennial winner or the lovable loser? Soup or salad? Miami or Cleveland?

ESPN or Versus?

Now you see where I am going. The rumor mill has been swirling for months that the NHL will eventually make a move back the Worldwide Leader, maybe even sooner rather than later. In an interview with Sports Media Watch, ESPN's Vice President of Communications, Mike Soltys, when asked about the possibility of ESPN reacquiring rights to the NHL, responded that, "It's got to be a deal that's going to make financial sense for us, and it has to be something that we can get some of the high-quality telecasts. But we certainly have an interest." Some would like to see the NHL back on ESPN, but is that the right move for the NHL? After all, it's not always about what people want; in this case, it's about what is best for the NHL.

Yes, ESPN is the undisputed king of the television sports world. Yes, the Versus Network is notoriously difficult to locate in most cities. These facts don't need elaborating. It's also fairly obvious that ESPN doesn't need the NHL, but does the NHL really need the Four Letter Network? Years ago, in the wake of the lockout's resolution, I hoped that hockey would soon find its way back to ESPN. As the years have progressed, though, Versus has proved more than capable of handling one of the four major sports in the United States. They have, in fact, been... well, rather exemplary.

Consider:

- You have a play-by-play man that is equally exciting and knowledgeable about the game of hockey in Mike Emrick that Gary Thorne was for ESPN. I'll never forget staying up to ungodly hours of the morning on school nights watching overtime playoff games on ESPN, nearly asleep, only to be jolted awake by the rapturous belting of Thorne for the game-ending goal. I'm positive the man was as excited by the soon-approaching prospect of sleep as the winning team's fans were by the victory. That being said, Emrick is just as enthusiastic, just as knowledgeable, and has the instantly recognizable voice that is so important for a play-by-play caller. Seriously, let's just replace all the fire alarms in the country with Emrick screaming a game-winning call and we'll all be better off. Well, maybe not better off, but you get the point.

-Versus stepped up to the plate for the NHL at a time when the league was struggling to keep its head above water, and while the partnership started off slowly, it has only gotten better and better over the years. The two Stanley Cup Finals broadcasts that Versus had from this latest postseason provided some of the best numbers that the NHL has seen on cable in years. Versus has been doing hockey right. They believe in the league, and the proof, as they say, is in the pudding.

- However, the most interesting part to me, by far, is the pending purchase of NBC Universal by Comcast. Comcast, in case you are unaware, owns Versus, and the purchase of NBC and its sibling networks by Comcast could potentially open new doors. There's even been mention of the USA Network getting thrown into the mix with Versus and NBC as part of their proposal when the current contract runs out after 2011. Imagine, though: the NHL would remain on NBC, and also receive additional time on a more visible network with USA.

Yes, ESPN is the undisputed king of the televised sports world. Yes, the Versus Network is notoriously difficult to locate in most cities, but that doesn't change the fact that Versus is more committed to the NHL, has just as good a presentation and broadcast as ESPN did, and has (at least, in my opinion),  a much more interesting and exciting future than ESPN does. Let's face it: ESPN hasn't exactly been the darling eye of the sports world as of late, what with their ridiculous coverage of Indecision (insert year here) with Brett, How to Lose Your Wife and Your Swing in Ten Minutes starring Tiger, and The Decision. A potential three network deal involving NBC, USA, and Versus hold much more promise than a transition back to the warm, comfy blanket that ESPN provides, where the NHL will, in all likelihood, get buried beneath the NBA, MLB, and NASCAR. More networks would mean more opportunities for more teams to receive TV exposure.

You can't see me right now, but I'm raising a glass of Jack Daniels (which is neither safe nor smart; it's just right), hoping that Gary Bettman will take this road less traveled.

With single-game ticket sales set to begin tomorrow, let's take a glance at what the team can do to sell more tickets. Obviously, signing new, young and explosive talent like Matthew Lombardi and seeing a breakout season from a player like Patric Hornqvist helps, but in all honestly there is only an extent to which that can help us sell more tickets. There are two main groups in which we can strengthen our ticket sales:

1.       CURRENT FANS:  The improvement of talent within our organization as well as big free agent signings is the key to success here. The #1 goal is to win a Stanley Cup, and improving the cohesiveness and skill of our team is the only way to get there. If current fans see our team doing better and making the right moves to improve our Cup chances, then we will significantly bolster our ticket sales, which I expect to happen this season.

2.       NEW FANS: This is where the bulk of our new ticket sales are going to come from. This includes people who have never been to a hockey game in their life, and the people who come out of the woodworks to blindly support our team simply because of the face that we are doing well or are in the playoffs. My family moved here four years ago from Los Angeles. We had never been to a hockey game at all, and living in LA made it quite the trek to get to any sort of professional sports game. Nashvillians are already afforded the luxury of having two sports teams in very accessible locations. The key to getting the new fans is just getting them to experience a live hockey game at least once. Everyone I have brought to a hockey for their first time, has come back. No live sport matches the intensity and excitement of hockey.

It doesn't matter who we have in our front office or what kind of players we sign if our fans aren't doing their part. It's up to us, Pred's Nation, to help our team and do our part in bringing new fans to come and experience the joy that is, professional hockey.

But you'll miss it in January

Much like the current hot and humid weather in Middle Tennessee, everybody gripes about the Predators' power play  but nobody does anything about it.  With a goal scored on only 15.7 % of power play opportunities, the Predators ended the regular season ranked 24th (1). More dramatically was the fall in the ability of the penalty kill . For several years it was considered a strength of the team, but in 09-10 the PK was successful 77.1% of the time (average for all teams = 81.8%, range=74.6-86.8%). Fortunately, team discipline paid off as the team was the second least penalized team in the league.  Yet as dismal as it seemed last year, the power play was better than the 2 previous seasons. Here are the PP rankings and rates since the lockout.

I didn't recall the team being so futile for so many years until I started looking into these stats. But before you start screaming for Poile to beg Paul Kariya to come back and run the power play, why don't we look at what difference a PP on steroids might have done for the season just passed.

Stamkos to the Predators! (E0)

No not really. One of the things I like about On The Forecheck is that Dirk doesn't dabble in rumors  (now I'm just sucking up). I bring up young Steven Stamkos not because he will soon be enjoying evenings on Broadway with Taylor Swift and looking for a condo in a not yet foreclosed building in the Gulch, but because he scored 24(!) power play goals last season. The most scored by a Predator was 10 by Hornqist (2). Now the Tampa Bay Lightning had 40 more PP opportunities than the Preds but that is a lot of PP goals by one player. The best team performance on the PP was by the Capitals. They had a league-leading conversion rate of 25.2% on the PP. Lets look at this past year and see what would have happened if the Predators had such a power play. Could they have won the division or at least achieved home ice advantage for the first round?

Review and Simulation 

The Predators record was 47-29-6. How many extra wins could have been achieved with a better PP. I reviewed each loss and win in OT/SO to see what the performance was for the PP in those games. My idea was to run a simple simulation of the unsuccessful PP opportunities with a new turbocharged PP which performed at the Capitals level. I examined the results from 47 games. Of those, 18 games were losses by a margin greater than the number of failed PPs or were OT/SO wins over Eastern Conference teams or teams which finished lower than the Preds in the West (extra point given to the losers didn't affect Preds standing). In the 29 remaining games, the Preds PP was awful scoring 7 PP goals in 97 opportunities (7.2%). I next generated random numbers (between 0 and 1)  for each of the 90 unsuccessful power plays and counted a goal scored if the random number was <= to the Caps .25 rate. This resulted in an additional 23 goals being scored (a reasonable rate of .256). However, when added to the 7 goals scored in the actual games, the rate raises .3. To get the rate back down to the advertised .25, I randomly dropped 5 goals to give an overall success rate of .257 for all the games being simulated. These additional goals were enough to change the winner in 5 games and force a tie in an additional 4 games thereby changing the results in 9 of the 29 games. The Preds did remarkably well in OT/SO games winning 70% of them. To resolve the ties I generated 6 more random numbers and counted wins when the random number was <= .7. This resulted in 2 wins and 2 overtime losses. Just as important were the points lost by the opposing teams. Detroit lost 6, Phoenix 3, San Jose 2 and Chicago 2.  While the Detroit numbers may look questionable, most of the games against the Red Wings were very close and the Preds had many PP opportunities from which they did not benefit (1/15 in the 4 games included in the simulation). 

Final Standings and Thoughts

Updating the points changed by the theoretically improved power play, the Preds would have won an additional 7 games and the Western Conference. The simulation I performed is very unsophisticated and run only on the raw numbers looking back at the 09-10 season. It does not take into account the ebb and flow of the game. A good team might respond to being tied or giving up the lead due to an opponent's power play goal with renewed energy and zeal. A home crowd might will the team to victory during a tv timeout (I've seen it happen!). A mascot may throw a cream pie into the face of an unsuspecting fan of the opposing team. All these things can shift the momentum in a game and running such a dry simulation fails to account for many effects which may negate a solitary additional power play goal. I only ran the simulation once due to time constraints. Averaging the results after running it many more times might cause the effect to dampen a bit.  A more sophisticated approach might have adjusted the PP rate based on a given opponent's penalty kill. There are lots of variables one might include or discard and knowing what to do with them is part of the challenge in trying to make statistical sense of such a fast-paced and fluid game.

I don't anticipate the Predators scoring on the PP at a rate comparable to the Caps anytime soon. I have to believe it will be a coaching priority this year. We have seen over the last few years that the Preds are not a high scoring team. Even a modest improvement in the PP could result in a significant increase in points and seating in the post-season. However, as the Caps proved, having the best power play in hockey may not be enough to get you out of the first round.

Much like the music great Frank Sinatra who was called by his close friends the Chairman of the board. The Nashville Predators chairman Tom Cigarran made moves Tuesday that clearly show there is new direction that the organization is taking.  Mr. Cigarran has made it clear that he will be the face of the franchise as the chairman. He seems very comfortable in this role.  With the letting go of Ed Lang and the hiring of two experience executives from other markets. It is apparent that this ownership group is committed to being winning franchise on and off the ice.  

By hiring Jeff Cogen and Sean Henry there will be a new level of energy and enthusiasm with the team. New faces bring new ideas to old challenges in this market.   An old challenge has been solving the football problem. Attendance for Predators games lags in October and November because fans are going to their favorite football teams games on Saturday and Sunday.  These new executives should have new ideas on how to attract fans during these months.  Jeff Cogen comes from Dallas despite having a team that did not make the playoffs last year. The Dallas Stars still drew an average of 17,215 and rank seventeenth in attendance.  The Predators on the other hand average 14,979 and rank twenty-sixth in attendance.    In Dallas, the Cowboys are number one and the other professional teams are a distant second. Yet the Stars still drew at a ninety-two percent capacity.  A key to the Predators moving up the attendance ranking ladder is more fans have to come to games during the football season months.


Both of these guys come from franchises that have won Stanley cups. At the end of game six, there was some fan frustration with the Predators inability to breakthrough with a series win.  Much like it takes steel to sharpen steel, a winning front office does lead to winning on the ice. The Chicago Blackhawks went from being a division doormat to winning the Stanley Cup with the simple change in the front office.

Finally, as a Predators fan I had grown tired of the "we are a small market mantra" every time the franchise could not make a move to improve itself. The culture was always one of a small market and had adopted a pessimistic view of itself.   Mr. Cigarran has moved away from this negative image.  August 10, 2010 will be a day the Predators moved to be the optimistic and vibrant franchise both inside and out.

Well, that is what I thought when I first heard the Dixie Flyers dropped the puck on their inaugural season in 1962.  How could a historian resist that – especially when she has a research paper due in December.

This fall I am entering into the final semesters of my master’s program in history at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.  As a break from my thesis research, I have chosen a new topic to write about:  the history of hockey in Nashville.  In addition to some general history about the different leagues – NHL, ECHL, EHL – my paper will cover Nashville hockey from the Dixie Flyers and the South Stars to the Knights and finally the Predators.  One of the reasons I joined this blog is that I though it would be great way to get feedback from Nashville hockey fans.  I hope to also glean some insight on what it means to be a hockey fan in Nashville and, with any luck, a few leads on source materials.

Although I am not new to hockey, I am definitely new to being a Predators fan.  I am actually a life-long Chicago Blackhawks fan. (Don’t hate me.)  I am a Chicago native transplanted to the south as a teenager.  I come by my hockey fanaticism honestly: my grandfathers were both huge hockey fans, one even played adult neighborhood league hockey in the 1950s.  I simply love hockey – I go to the Alabama Frozen Tide club team games; I have driven over to Atlanta for Thrashers and Knights games and up to Huntsville for Havoc games; and I used to go to the Birmingham Bulls (ECHL) and the short-lived Alabama Slammers games as often as I could.

A good friend of mine has been a Predators fan since the beginning.  Because of him, I have been keeping an eye on the Predators for the past season.  Luckily, Fox Sports South Nashville is available on my satellite and I was able to watch a good number of games.  I went to my first Predators game on a student night.  (This spring I also went to a Thrashers game – Phillips Arena has NOTHING on Bridgestone.)  The atmosphere is amazing.

At this point, I completely fell in love with the team and the barn.  So much so, I bought tickets the day after the team clinched their spot in the playoffs.  As it turned out, my two favorite teams ended up playing each other. Honestly, I was probably the happiest fan in the building regardless of the outcome.  It was very strange to be in Bridgestone and NOT be rooting for the Predators.  However, part of me was still excited that the Preds won Game 3.  Two days later I drove up for Game 4, so I got the best of both worlds that week.   And now, I am a season ticket holder (well, the 10 game plan since I live three hours away).

So, do any of you have memories of seeing the Dixie Flyers, South Stars, or Knights before the Predators came to town?

I understand that Nashville is not Toronto, Detroit or Vancouver and that sometimes former players take cheap shots and that we are ignored by the media. I realize that various hockey discussion forums across the internet are going to be full of people who don't really consider the Preds a viable hockey team nor Nashville a hockey town; however, Mr. Puck Daddy has committed a very serious offense against the fan base here by this comment. To imply that the team has no fans because hockey is still growing here only reinforces various stereotypes.

We have all seen the great amount of "journalism" that has been given to us by the Tennessean and the Canadian media about the impending doom of this team off the ice; however, being mocked as a fan base by a man who supposed to be prognosticating about on ice fortunes is offensive to me. I usually laugh at these people and recognize that Barry's boys will shut them up once again this year, but this one got to me for some reason.

Thoughts?

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