Statistical Analysis
Why Patric Hornqvist's new contract is a steal
by Dirk Hoag on Aug 24, 2010 11:38 PM EDT
in Statistical Analysis
24 comments
Reaction from the Nashville Predators fan base to today's Patric Hornqvist signing has been at once filled with celebration (at the fact the deal got done) to concern (over the price of the deal, $9.25 million over 3 seasons). Somewhat understandably, some observers are worried that after a breakout 30-goal season, David Poile may have paid "for promise, not performance" as Hockey Hillbilly said, and Jeremy at Section303.com deems the contract "a little alarming." Amanda at Predlines goes right to the scare tactic: "is there any chance of Hornqvist becoming the next David Legwand?"
Relax, folks - this is a great deal for the Nashville Predators.
When you dig inside the details, you'll see that Hornqvist's 30-goal season was no fluke, and that significant upside potential has yet to be tapped. If anything, this contract could look like quite a bargain after just a few months...
NHL schedule feeds some teams exhausted opponents in 2010-2011 season
by Dirk Hoag on Aug 9, 2010 11:25 AM EDT
in Statistical Analysis
10 comments
As I've written before, the travel burdens of the 2010-2011 NHL schedule fall unevenly on various teams, with some Eastern Conference squads enjoying a travel itinerary with about half as many miles flown as their Western counterparts. Another grueling aspect of the schedule, however, involves back-to-back sets of games. Teams in general enjoy a Points Percentage of roughly .560 (.500 isn't average anymore thanks to the OT "loser" point), but that Points Percentage drops by about .050 for teams which have already played a game the night before. Some back-to-back sets are particularly tough when you toss in two elite opponents, or a long flight between games.
This then leads to a double-edged question - not just which teams play the most and least B2B sets, but also, which teams will face the most opponents who are playing on the back end of a B2B set? Follow after the jump as we break it down...
The 10 Toughest Sets of Back-To-Back Games in the 2010-11 NHL Season
by Dirk Hoag on Jul 29, 2010 4:25 PM EDT
in Statistical Analysis
7 comments
Last month, I unveiled the 2010-11 NHL Super Schedule, which allows you to compare the travel burdens of every team in the league. Which team will travel the most? San Jose. Which will travel the least? New Jersey. That, and much more, is available via a publicly accessible Google Spreadsheet which you can download and analyze to your heart's content.
One particularly grueling aspect of professional hockey is the dreaded "back to back" set of games, in which a team has to play on one night in a given city, then immediately hop aboard a plane and jet to another town for a contest the next night, often arriving in the wee hours of the morning. Toss in the hassle of a US/Canada border crossing, or weather delays, and it's no wonder that sometimes your favorite team looks like they're skating in a collective fog.
So which are the ten nastiest sets of back-to-back games that NHL teams will face this upcoming season? Follow after the jump to find out...
How far will your favorite team travel this year? Check the 2010-11 NHL Super Schedule!
by Dirk Hoag on Jun 22, 2010 4:08 PM EDT
in Statistical Analysis
6 comments
With today's announcement of the 2010-11 NHL Regular Season schedule, the debates will naturally begin over which team has the toughest or easiest schedule, who has to travel the most, who has the most games on back-to-back nights, etc.
For years, those debates were founded in ignorance and partisanship, so for the fourth consecutive season, I'd like to present the NHL Super Schedule to help inform your arguments.
Follow after the jump for a freely downloadable version of the schedule, along with all the details as to which teams will travel the most and least this upcoming season...
6 comments | 2 recs |
Faceoff opportunities for the Nashville Predators
by Dirk Hoag on Jun 9, 2010 3:57 PM EDT
in Statistical Analysis
8 comments
In light of the fact that the Nashville Predators had a difficult time winning faceoffs last season, I thought it might help to offer some further detail, along with suggestions as to how things might improve (outside of bringing back Scott Nichol, that is).
Follow after the jump for a detailed analysis of the Nashville Predators' performance at winning faceoffs, in a way I don't think you've seen before...
Breaking down faceoff winning percentage by NHL teams
by Dirk Hoag on Jun 7, 2010 3:40 PM EDT
in Statistical Analysis
4 comments
Over the long course of the NHL season, faceoff winning percentages naturally gravitate towards 50% (this season's range went from #1 San Jose at 55.6% to Edmonton's 46.4%).
A wrinkle can be added to this analysis, however, by looking at the performance of teams when split by various situations. For instance, teams on the Power Play win roughly 55% of faceoffs, and thus Shorthanded teams win 45%. And as we know, when a team gets a power play chance, the clock is ticking - losing a faceoff and having to chase down the puck for 10-15 seconds can burn away precious time.
Follow after the jump for a look at how teams across the league fared on the faceoff dot, with an extra level of detail you usually don't see...
4 comments | 2 recs |
2009-10 Season Review: Ryan Suter
by Dirk Hoag on Jun 3, 2010 4:07 PM EDT
in Statistical Analysis
2 comments
One of the foremost examples of how the Nashville Predators are able to develop quality NHL defensemen, Ryan Suter is entering his prime hockey-playing years having wrapped up his fifth season with the Preds.
Ryan Suter
#20 / Defenseman / Nashville Predators
6-1
194
Jan 21, 1985
Contract: Signed through 2011-12 at $3.5 million/year, then UFA
| Ryan Suter | GP | G | A | Pts | Comment |
| Projection | 82 | 12 | 40 | 52 | Continuing to mature as a top-level defenseman. |
| Actual | 82 | 4 | 33 | 37 | 2nd on team in assists, tops in average TOI with 23:58/game |
| Playoff | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Led Preds' defensemen with 16 shots on goal. |
Follow after the jump as we break down Ryan's season and see where he's headed for the Nashville Predators...
Nashville Predators vs. Chicago Blackhawks series preview
by Dirk Hoag on Apr 15, 2010 3:55 PM EDT
in Statistical Analysis
92 comments
The National Hockey League obviously saved the best for last, with the Predators and Blackhawks opening their Western Conference Quarterfinal series Friday evening at the United Center in Chicago. The experts around the NHL are in heated disagreement over their predictions for this series - how many games will the Blackhawks take to win it?
I can see why they're smitten with the Hawks - they have lots of young talent, and a few high-priced veterans to go along with them. Once you start digging into the details, however, things start to look much different...
92 comments | 1 recs |
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Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats & analysis, and managing editor of On the Forecheck.
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