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Does Defense Really Win Championships?

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University of Chicago economist Tobias J. Moskowitz and Sports Illustrated's L. Jon Wertheim offer a scientific analysis of NFL games to challenge the conventional wisdom that "defense wins championships." Their empirical analysis examines only the NFL, but Joshua Cooper woud probably agree that offense and defense should receive equal weight when making predictions -- at least when it comes to making the NHL postseason. Lock up the Big Three if you want, Mr. Poile -- but at some point you're going to have to pay for some help up front!

DUBNER: Tell me some of the pundits who whether by luck or brilliance and hard work turn out to be...

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DUBNER: Tell me some of the pundits who whether by luck or brilliance and hard work turn out to be really, really good. DAVENPORT: Sure. There are two guys from ESPN who are sort of far ahead of the field. One is Pat Yasinskas, and the other is John Clayton, who is pretty well known; he makes a lot of appearances on SportsCenter and he's kind of a, nebbish-y professorial type. And they perform much better than everyone else because they're excellent wild-card pickers. They're the only people who have correctly predicted both wild card teams in a conference in a season. But they're especially good because they actually play it much safer than everyone else. DUBNER: Now you say that they are very good. Persuade me that they're good and not lucky. DAVENPORT: I can't do that. ...

Freakonomics Radio - The Folly of Prediction

Millionaires vs. Billionaires | Freakonomics Radio

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Are you ready for some … labor negotiations? Yes, the National Football League held a nice Super Bowl just a couple weeks ago... It was the most-watched TV program in U.S. history. So: everyone in the NFL family must be happy, right?

Moskowitz and Wertheim's Scorecasting

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There's a good example of how big the book Freakonomics by Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt simply in the location where I picked it up: late one sleepless night in a Mumbai apartment I was...

Bill James Answers All Your Baseball Questions - Freakonomics - Opinion - New York Times Blog

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Two things I dig -- Bill James and Freakonomics -- come together for one tremendously enjoyable visitor Q&A.

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