Predators’ Prospects Breakdown: The Summer Ahead - Defensemen Part I

Today is the third installment of a wholesale look at the Predators’ organizational pipeline. This is a position-by-position analysis based on what this summer will hold and what the future will dictate. You can check out the first installment—focusing on wingers—here and the second installment - goalies - here.

A quick reminder about the strategy behind these posts:

I will provide a look at what the organization has at each position, a graded breakdown of every players’ present and future, and contract situation.

Each player will be assigned four numbers and a label: a transition game grade, a defensive zone play grade, an AHL ability grade (if they aren’t already in the AHL, we know they can play in their current league), an NHL potential grade, and a three-year projection.

Grades will be assigned on a 2-8 scale (if you’re familiar with the 20-80 scale it’s the same thing). On this scale, 5 represents an NHL average grade, whereas 2 represents - well, hopefully, I won’t be assigning any 2’s - and 8 represents a generational talent or skill level. I’m borrowing this from a few sources - I know Corey Pronman has used it for a while, so hopefully, it makes sense.

The list below is a tiered ranking of the defensemen in the organization. This ranking factors current production and also future in the organization.

Eric Dunay

Players Under Contract: Frederic Allard, Alexandre Carrier, Jack Dougherty, Joonas Lyytinen, Filip Pyrochta

Players on Reserve: Dante Fabbro, David Farrance, Hardy Haman Aktell, Jacob Paquette, Adam Smith, Taylor Aronson, Scott Valentine, Stefan Elliott

Pending UFAs: John Ramage, Jimmy Oligny, Rick Pinkston

AHL Contracts: Matt Donovan

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Frederic Allard, 20, Milwaukee Admirals

Transition: 6.5

Defensive Zone: 6.0

AHL Ability: 6.5

NHL Potential: 6.0

3-Year Projection: Top-4 NHL Defenseman

I was talking on Twitter the other day about the Admirals’ crop of defensemen and who was closest to being a full-time NHL player. I know a lot of eyes have been on Alexandre Carrier for the past few years, but I think Allard will end up being the better player.

In his first professional season, Allard posted 8 goals and 24 points in 55 games for the Admirals. He started the season buried on the depth chart and saw some action in the ECHL, but he flourished in the second half of the year with increased ice time.

When coming out of juniors, Allard didn’t seem to have the reputation Carrier did of being counted on in all situations. But, make no mistake, his game is quickly molding into that of an excellent two-way defenseman with a dangerous wrist shot from the point and fantastic possession skills. Despite averaging just a minute less of ice time per game than his Quebecois teammate, Allard finished the 2017-18 season with a 53.23% goals-for percentage - nearly 12 percentage points higher than Carrier.

I expect Allard to get some call-up time during the season, especially if injuries pile up. He’ll have a legitimate shot at a full-time roster spot in 2019-20 if he stays on track.

The organization has benefited from two years of an entry-level slide on his contract. He’s signed on a two-way deal until the summer of 2021 at a $714K cap hit.

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Alexandre Carrier, 21, Milwaukee Admirals

Transition: 6.0

Defensive Zone: 6.5

AHL Ability: 6.5

NHL Potential: 6.0

3-Year Projection: Top-4 NHL Defenseman

In many ways, Allard and Carrier are very similar players: possession skills, active sticks in all three zones, solid neutral-zone play, etc. For many, Carrier has been viewed as the more defensively responsible player (think of a Roman Josi-type). He’s a player that can thrive on a good penalty kill and be an excellent distributor on a powerplay unit.

I give a slight edge to Allard because he’s more aggressive in possession battles and has better offensive instincts. However, both of these players could be mainstays on the Nashville blue line in due time.

Carrier is still 21 and had a rough season in Milwaukee, but that defensive unit was just a hot mess overall. Even still, he posted 28 points in 73 games this past season.

Carrier’s contract also saw two years of an entry-level slide. He will be a restricted free-agent in the summer of 2020. His cap hit checks in at $688,333 for the next two years.

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Filip Pyrochta, 21, Milwaukee Admirals

Transition: 6.5

Defensive Zone: 5.5

AHL Ability: 6.0

NHL Potential: 5.5

3-Year Projection: Top-6/ Depth NHL Defenseman

I’m very excited about the Pyrochta signing - like oddly excited. I’ve probably said this about too many Admirals, but I’m really intrigued about how his 2018-19 season goes. It will most likely help me decide if he can be a regular NHL defenseman or not.

Check out my full breakdown on Pyrochta here!

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Hardy Haman Aktell, 19, Skelleftea AIK J20

Transition: 6.0

Defensive Zone: 5.5

AHL Ability: 5.5

NHL Potential: 4.5

3-Year Projection: Full-time AHL Defenseman or no longer with the organization

Everyone’s favorite enigma is at it again. Hardy Haman Aktell will once again be at rookie camp in a few weeks! Er... wait... we’ve heard this story before. Aktell bailed on camp last year due to injury complications leading the myth of his existence to grow.

But, not only is he on the roster this year, but the director of his new club confirmed he’s coming to Nashville at the end of June.

Speaking of, I’ve thought about whether he’ll move up the Swedish ranks next season, and it looks like he’ll get his shot. He’ll be playing in the Allsvenskan - Sweden’s second-highest league - for Bjorkloven next year.

I don’t have much to add on Aktell cause he hasn’t played much the past couple years, so check out my words on him from earlier in the season here!

The Preds hold his contractual rights until June 1, 2020.

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Jacob Paquette, 19, Kingston Frontenacs

Transition: 5.0

Defensive Zone: 5.5

AHL Ability: 5.5

NHL Potential: 4.5

3-Year Projection: Full-time AHL Defenseman

Paquette could end up being one of my favorite Predators’ draft picks in recent memory. At 216th overall, I truly think he could be a steal. Paquette will finish up his junior career on another strong Frontenacs team this season.

Last season he posted a career-high 15 points in 63 games. A defensively-minded player, Paquette plays sound hockey, can eat up minutes, has a surprising offensive-zone presence, and a booming shot.

I don’t think his ceiling is incredibly high, but I know the organization was very happy to pick him. His rights expire next June 1st.

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John Ramage, 27, Milwaukee Admirals

Transition: 5.0

Defensive Zone: 5.5

AHL Ability: 6.0

NHL Potential: 4.5

3-Year Projection: No longer with the organization

Ramage is currently the organization’s token AHL-veteran defenseman, but I’m not sure he’ll be back. Word is the brass acquired him at the trade deadline because of his winning pedigree and the need for a culture change. However, he is unlikely to match his two career years in 2015-16 and 2016-17.

If the organization doesn’t re-sign Ramage this summer, I imagine they’ll look at a similar player to bring in.

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Jimmy Oligny, 25, Milwaukee Admirals

Transition: 4.5

Defensive Zone: 5.0

AHL Ability: 5.0

NHL Potential: 3.5

3-Year Projection: No longer with the organization

2017-18 was Oligny’s fourth year with the Admirals organization. He’s been a mainstay on that blueline since 2014 on AHL contracts exclusively. History would tell us that Scott Nichol brings him back on another one-year deal, but I think it’s unlikely. The top-6 is already likely set in Milwaukee (Allard, Carrier, Lyytinen, Dougherty, Pyrochta, and Donovan), so there isn’t much room for him to post regular minutes again. But, maybe they surprise me.

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Rick Pinkston, 27, Atlanta Gladiators

Transition: 4.5

Defensive Zone: 4.5

AHL Ability: 4.5

NHL Potential: 2.5

3-Year Projection: No longer with the organization

Pinkston was brought in by the Admirals last summer after playing 20 games on loan for them in 2016-17. I actually like him a lot as an AHL depth player, and I could see him coming back for insurance, but it really is a guessing game.

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Matt Donovan, 28, Frolunda HC

Transition: 5.5

Defensive Zone: 5.0

AHL Ability: 5.5

NHL Potential: 4.5

3-Year Projection: No longer with the organization

The Admirals recently announced the signing of Donovan to an AHL contract after he spent the past two seasons in the SHL.

Donovan seems to be the go-to replacement for Petter Granberg and John Ramage. He’s played in the NHL as recently as 2015 and posted 42 points in 102 games for Frolunda.

I think this is really solid signing and it doesn’t waste a contract spot for the Predators. There’s probably room for one more veteran defenseman this season in Milwaukee.

Part Two of the Defense Breakdown posts tomorrow!

Eric Dunay

All statistics are courtesy of eliteprospects.com or Colin Cudmore. All contract information is courtesy of capfriendly.com.