You know the story of the 2024-25 Nashville Predators by now.
A season with high expectations following marquee free-agent signings has turned into an expensive disappointment. But it didn’t have to turn out like this.
The first two months of the season effectively killed this team’s playoff hopes before they could really get going. But the Predators have been playing solid hockey for the last couple months, despite their standing in the, well, standings. You know, if you don’t care about whether or not the puck actually goes in.
The Predators have been uniquely done in by the hockey gods this year. Their shooters have failed them. Their goaltenders have failed them. Yet, night after night, they play a decent brand of hockey that, were it not for getting smited by percentages, might’ve had them in the playoff conversation in a fairly rancid race for the second playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Predators are a mess — an expensive mess, even. It’s hard to find a starting point, but let’s begin with the offense.
Nashville’s additions of Steven Stamkos, holder of seven seasons with 40-plus goals, and Jonathan Marchessault were supposed to help them avoid this exact scenario. Especially Stamkos, who’s no longer a play-driver at this point in his career but still should be good enough of a sniper to make up for it. He’s somewhat delivered with 17 goals, but nine of them are on the power play. He has just seven at five-on-five, a shade under his 7.77 expected, per Natural Stat Trick.
Five-on-five is where the Predators have gotten into trouble with finishing. The power play has been fine, but Nashville can’t buy a goal at five-on-five. The Predators have accrued roughly 113 expected goals at five-on-five this season, but they’ve only scored 84. Nashville has underperformed by 29 goals at five-on-five, by far the worst in the league.
Even as the Predators have improved at driving play at five-on-five over the course of the season, the finishing luck hasn’t really carried over. Only Carolina, Florida and Edmonton have generated more expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five in their last 25 games heading into the 4 Nations Face-Off break, but the Predators have still scored about nine goals less than expected. Additionally, they’re just 22nd in five-on-five shooting percentage at 8.2.
Similarly, Nashville owns the fifth-best expected-goals share at five-on-five in its last 25 games. But because the Preds can neither score nor come up with timely saves (more on that later), they’ve been outscored 49-59 at five on five and are tied for 23rd in points percentage (.500) in that span.
Filip Forsberg, an easy pick to outscore his expected numbers, has just 11 goals at 12.6 expected at five-on-five this season. Ryan O’Reilly has just four goals at five-on-five despite generating 8.45. This curse hasn’t even spared the team’s young players, as Zachary L’Heureux is at three goals on 7.34 expected.
All of this has been made worse by a down year for goaltender Juuse Saros. When the Predators signed Saros to an eight-year deal worth $7.74 million per year (and effectively chase off former first-round pick Yaroslav Askarov) that kicks in next year, they probably didn’t expect Saros’ play to fall off.
But that’s exactly what happened. Saros’ negative-3.54 goals saved above expected (GSAx) at all situations, per Evolving-Hockey, is not only the worst of his career, but if this trend continues, it would be the first time he has finished a season with a negative GSAx.
Saros’ shortcomings this year unfortunately have also come at five on five. Of the 49 goalies who have played at least 600 minutes at five on five, Saros is 47th in GSAx at negative-9.43. Only Samuel Ersson (-11.8) and Philipp Grubauer (-16.5) are worse.
Combine the league’s worst shooting luck with leaky goaltending, and it’s easy to see how this season has spiraled out of control for the Predators. Nashville is 31st in shooting percentage and 23rd in save percentage for a league-worst 97.3 PDO (100 is average).
It’s hard not to think about the games the Predators could have won or at least taken to overtime if they had scored a few more goals or had a couple more timely saves. Nashville’s .294 win percentage in one-goal games is ahead of only Chicago. It’s easy to see how things could be better for Nashville.
But games are shaped by what happens on the scoreboard. Narratives are shaped by what happens on the scoreboard. Seasons are decided by what happens on the scoreboard. At a certain point, you lose trust in the process, even if everything says the process should be working.
It’s the worst, most painful outcome imaginable. And now it’s general manager Barry Trotz’s job to sort through the rubble.