It’s safe to say that the Predators haven’t gotten off to the start they and Nashville fans had hoped.
Coming off a busy offseason where they brought in Jonathan Marchessault, Brady Skjei and Steven Stamkos, the Predators looked prime to accelerate their re-tool back into contention.
But the early results haven’t been great. Nashville went winless in its first five games before snapping the skid Tuesday night with a win against the Boston Bruins Tuesday night. The Predators will hope to build off that win moving forward, but Nashville has dug itself a hole.
All stats are via Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted.
Good news: the top line is still rock solid
A revitalized top line was a major reason why Nashville improved enough to return to the playoffs last season, and this season hasn’t been any different so far.
Nashville’s trio of center Ryan O’Reilly and wingers Filip Forsberg and Gustav Nyquist are still tilting the ice in their favor. There had to be some concern over whether they could pull off a repeat performance, since a significant part of it was O’Reilly having a career season in his early 30s and Nyquist turned 35 not long before the start of the season. Both players had their most points in a season since 2018-19, and asking a couple of players in their early-to-mid-30s to run it back is less than ideal.
Last season, those three posted a score-and-venue-adjusted xGF% of 53.6% while outscoring their opponents 46-31 in over 760 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey. The fancy stats are even better this season — albeit in a small sample size — with Nashville’s top line sporting an xGF% of 63.4%.
However, the on-ice results haven’t been quite as dominant. A goal against the B’s finally gave the Predators’ top line a 3-2 edge against their opponents on the season. They’re also sporting an on-ice shooting percentage below 9% and an on-ice save percentage of just .889, according to Evolving Hockey. Trust the process.
Bad news: The overall results aren’t as good as we’d hoped
The early results for Nashville look better after snapping its skid on Tuesday, but it’s still too early to have a good read on the Predators.
Nashville’s been outscored a mindboggling 16-7 at five-on-five for a goals-for percentage of 30.4%, which is 31st in the league. The Predators rank 31st in PDO (save percentage plus shooting percentage) at five-on-five at 92.5. That’s what will happen when you have the second-lowest shooting percentage (4.8%) and the third-lowest save percentage (.877).
But even if the Predators’ on-ice results start to reflect what’s “expected” by the numbers, it still won’t quite be enough to turn the tides. Again, small sample size, but the Preds have a 49.7% xGF% at five-on-five thus far after a fairly one-sided win over Boston (more on that in a bit). Anything below 50% is a no-go.
Nashville has struggled to produce much of anything outside of their first line. With their top unit off the ice, the Predators own just 43.9% of the expected goals at five-on-five. That’s not a recipe for success, especially after all of the talent the Predators added in the offseason.
Good news: Maybe the Predators have figured out a recipe
When you’re only six games into a season, it’s funny how one game can change perceptions.
Heading into Tuesday’s game, Nashville’s offensive profile was just odd. In terms of shot attempts, the Preds were among the league’s best at producing their own while effectively suppressing their opponents. But until Tuesday, Nashville’s high shot volume hadn’t led to quality.
That changed on Tuesday against the Bruins. The Predators still convincingly won the shot five-on-five attempt battle 52-38, and most of the entire lineup posted an xGF% above 50%. More importantly, they scored two goals on 2.66 expected at five-on-five and suffocated the Bruins defensively. It was also a great night for goaltender Juuse Saros, who’s had his struggles so far but posted a shutout. Throw in a power play that scored a goal and really could have added another, and it was a perfect night for the Predators.
Granted, the Bruins have their own struggles at five-on-five (28th in xGF%), but it was the kind of overall team performance that Nashville desperately needed. For the Predators, they’ll hope to repeat that kind of performance moving forward.
Neutral: Do the Predators still have time to figure things out?
Stuck in an early-season slump, Predators head coach Andrew Brunette activated every hockey coach’s go-to move: the line blender. He left the top line untouched but hit the reset button otherwise.
The big question has been what to do with Marchessault and Stamkos. The Preds have tried both playing them together and apart from each other, and there doesn’t seem to be a clear answer on what the best option is.
Marchessault and Stamkos, when playing together, have been split between time with Tommy Novak and Colton Sissons. Things didn’t stick with the former, but it’s also hard to imagine the latter receiving significant ice time being the best option, either. The Predators’ lineup is very much in flux — of the league’s 127 forward lines that have played at least 20 minutes together, Nashville only has one.
Over the course of an 82-game season, there’s plenty of time to find out the best way to make all of the pieces fit together. But Nashville might not have that luxury. After an 0-5-0 start, the Predators have to play at a nearly 105-point pace the rest of the way just to match last season’s point total.
You can’t make the playoffs in October, but you sure can miss them.