For the first time in franchise history, the Clarence S. Campbell trophy, the trophy awarded to the winner of the NHL’s Western Conference, will be inside Bridgestone Arena.

It’s funny how in the NHL, winning the conference is not a big deal. In the MLB and NFL, teams go nuts after winning their conference playoffs. Baseball players toss on goggles and spray Bud Light (ew) in each other’s faces. NFL players bask in the glory of their accomplishments.

NHL players? Well, who cares about the conference? Everyone knows the real prize is the Stanley Cup. This mentality has, ever since 1997, bred a superstition of whether or that one should not touch the conference trophy. Why celebrate when the job isn’t done yet?

Initiated by the 1997 Philadelphia Flyers, more and more team captains have refused to touch their conference trophies because the real prize was yet to be won. In fact, since the lockout, not one Western Conference winner has touched the Clarence S. Campbell trophy.

Yet, for all the superstition, does not touching the conference trophy lead to better results?

No.

Does not touching the Clarence S. Campbell trophy give the Western Conference the highest chance of winning the Stanley Cup, purely from a superstition-karma standpoint?

No.

If (knock on wood) the trophy is awarded Monday night, should the Nashville Predators touch it if they want the statistically best blessings from the hockey gods come the Stanley Cup Finals?

Maybe.

The Cold, Hard Facts

The first team to engage in this superstition was the Philadelphia Flyers who decided to  avoid touching the cup a convenient twenty years ago. Below are the Stanley Cup Finalists of those last twenty years.

Key:

Blue: Lost, did not touch the conference trophy.

Red: Lost, touched the conference trophy.

Green: Won, did not touch the conference trophy.

Yellow: Won, touched the conference trophy.

There are some key things to note here. First, the tradition of not touching the conference trophy has grown significantly over time. The winner of the Western Conference has not touched their trophy since Calgary touched it and lost in 2004. Meanwhile, the Eastern Conference has touched the Prince of Wales trophy, the award given to the Eastern Conference champions  significantly more than the west has touched the Clarence S. Campbell trophy.

Nevertheless, if both teams don’t touch their trophy, or if both do touch it, what are the likely outcomes?

The Western Conference crushes the Eastern Conference when both sides match each other in either touching or not touching their conference trophies. When both conference winners mirror the other’s actions, the west has a 8-3 record. In particular, the Western Conference dominates in years in which both teams have refused to touch their conference trophies, stockpiling a 5-2 record off the heels of the Chicago Blackhawks and Los Angeles Kings.

So how do the conferences fair when one team touches the cup and the other doesn’t?

First and foremost, when one team doesn’t touch the cup, that team is actually more likely to lose. When one team touches the cup and the other does not, the touching team is 5-3. Myth debunked.

Furthermore, the Eastern Conference has gotten the better of the Western Conference here. When the Eastern Conference winners touch the Prince of Wales trophy and the Western Conference winner does not touch the Clarence S. Campbell trophy, the east is 3-2. That is the Eastern Conference’s only winning record when splitting these numbers. Therefore, statistically, the Eastern Conference has the best odds of winning the Stanley Cup when they touch the Prince of Wales trophy.

Therefore, all things considered, the Western Conference winners have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup if they match whatever action the Eastern Conference does. Furthermore, if the Western Conference winner is crowned on Monday night (knock on wood), the winning team would behoove themselves to touch the Clarence S. Campbell trophy to deny the Eastern Conference winners of their 3-2 record in years when they touch their trophy and the west does not.

However…

An article based on the analysis of a superstition couldn’t be complete without, well, superstition, right?

Were the Clarence S. Campbell trophy be awarded on Monday night (knock on wood), it would go to the Nashville Predators. Despite the numbers saying that they should touch the Clarence S. Campbell trophy, there are compelling reasons why not. The two last teams to touch their conference trophy and lose were the 2010 Philadelphia Flyers, coached by Peter Laviolette, and the 2007 Ottawa Senators, on which Mike Fisher played.

Red flags? Red flags.

Furthermore, when Laviolette’s Carolina Hurricanes did not touch the Prince of Wales trophy in 2006, they won the Stanley Cup.

Therefore, if we’re talking about intangibles, perhaps it would be wise for Nashville to stray far away from the Clarence S. Campbell trophy.

NEVERTHELESS…

If the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Prince of Wales trophy, they are 2-0 when touching it when the other team does not. Those two wins come from their two most recent Stanley Cup victories, one coming just last season. If Sidney Crosby lifts the Prince of Wales trophy, odds are that the hockey gods will shine upon him in the final round.

Furthermore, we know the Eastern Conference is 3-2 when touching the Prince of Wales when the Western Conference does not touch the Clarence S. Campbell. Therefore, if the East is still undecided when a winner of the Western Conference is declared, should the west winner touch the Clarence S. Campbell just to prevent that Penguin mojo? Since 1997, they have yet to have an opponent touch the Clarence S. Campbell trophy. No record for the west is better than an 0-2 record.

Conclusion

Statistically, the winner of the Western Conference should touch the Clarence S. Campbell trophy. Really, it’s simple math.

Nevertheless, the hockey gods work in strange ways. The only current members of the Predators to have made the Stanley Cup Finals since 1997 have lost twice when touching their conference trophies and have won once when not. Point for not touching.

However, if the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Eastern Conference, it’s a near guarantee that Sidney Crosby is touching the Prince of Wales trophy. If he touches it and the winner of the Western Conference does not touch the Clarence S. Campbell trophy, then the west’s chances of winning the Stanley Cup look bleak. If the Predators advance, should they not touch it out of fear of the past, or touch it to avoid giving the Penguins and the Eastern Conference overall a chance to touch it and obtain that winning record karma? It’s as classic of a prisoner’s dilemma as you’ll ever see.

Or, you know, they could simply play hockey to decide the winner of the Stanley Cup…

…but the Western Conference winner should really just touch the Clarence S. Campbell trophy.