The page on the the David Poile era has officially been turned, and the dreaded word that the organization has avoided saying for a few years–“rebuilding”–is here. While the exodus of longtime Predators veterans has this team looking brand-new nearly from top to bottom, there’s one position where Nashville is not only set and stable for the present, but the future is already (seemingly) bright. If you’re a Nashville fan it shouldn’t surprise you that long-time cornerstone of the franchise–the goaltenders–look to lock down the net for the Preds both this season and for many more going forward.
Juuse Saros
Last season: 64 games played, 33-23-7, 91.9% save percentage
There may not be a better goaltender heading into the 2023-24 season in the entire NHL than Nashville’s own Juuse Saros. The previous “heir to the goaltending throne” under Pekka Rinne has erased all doubts that he could shoulder the load of an NHL starter after backing up the longtime future-hall-of-famer Rinne–in fact, there may not be another goaltender better to take on a heavy load in net. No other player in the NHL last season played more regular-season hockey than Saros, who led all players with just over 3,800 minutes in a league-leading 64 games played and was quite busy the entire time. Saros ranks first among goaltenders last year in not only shots faced (2,099) and saves made (1,928), but also expected goals faced (xGA) with 217.37–a measure of the shot quality from opponents–and allowed only 171 goals, despite the average NHL goaltender being expected to give up 46 more.
Last season was arguably Juuse Saros’s best in the Nashville crease. He finished with the second-highest goals saved above expected with 45 (just behind Illya Sorokin’s 50.2), as well as the highest goals above replacement rating from Evolving Hockey with 52.2, ahead of both Ilya Sorokin (49.4) and Linus Ullmark (45.4). Part of the reason for that is the incredible performance put up by Saros on the penalty kill, where his GAR component of 14.2 is nearly double the next highest player (Sorokin) at 8.6. To translate these numbers into something a bit more tangible, these ratings mean that Saros provided the Nashville Predators nearly 9 extra wins on the season compared to the average goaltender.
In fact, there may not be another goaltender better to take on a heavy load in net. No other player in the NHL played more regular season hockey than Juuse Saros last year.
In my opinion, Saros had a Vezina-quality season last year, and many were baffled when he was not included as a finalist when the awards were announced. The Islanders’ Sorokin may have had a legitimate claim to beat Saros for the trophy (which was awarded to Boston’s Linus Ullmark), but Saros wouldn’t get a chance to win when he finished fourth in the voting.
While many of the changes to this team this offseason came behind the bench, the Predators’ longtime goaltending coach Ben Vanderklok returns to the team again, and with the progression we’ve seen from Saros over the last few seasons, I don’t expect to see the young Finn declining by a significant amount by the time next season winds to a close. I expect we may see Saros starting fewer games than the 2022-23 season, but I imagine the workload he will face behind essentially a brand-new team will stay as high as last year–if not more.
Still, Juuse Saros is one of the top three goaltenders in the entire NHL, and the Predators have the young star for two more years at his current contract cost of $5 million a year–easily the most value for the dollar of any netminder in the league.
Kevin Lankinen
Last season: 18 games played, 9-8-1, 91.6% save percentage
While most teams don’t want to rely on their starting netminder playing 64 games a season, the Predators at least have a reliable backup at the NHL level who proved his worth last year and was rewarded with a $2 million deal to stay in Music City in fellow Finn Kevin Lankinen.
Lankinen joined the team last offseason in the midst of what most felt like was a training camp battle against former Predator Connor Ingram, but with Ingram’s move to Arizona, Lankinen secured the backup job and performed admirably in the number two role. In 18 starts last year, Lankinen went 9-8-1 with a 91.6% save percentage–and despite just the 18 appearances, finished 25th in the NHL in goals above replacement (GAR), contributing 1.5 extra wins above the league average after what felt like a disastrous season in Chicago a year prior. And while the shorthanded component of GAR was slightly above average (+1.4), he excelled at even strength with a GAR component of 7.8–again finishing in the top 30 among all goaltenders in the category.
We may see Nashville split starts a little more Lankinen’s way this season –it’s nearly inevitable as Saros shouldered over 78% of all starts for Nashville last season–and it won’t be without merit. Lankinen proved to be a very reliable backup goaltender last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kevin Lankinen see his starts reach into the 20’s next season. But there is no doubt to anyone on or off the ice that this is Juuse Saros’s team (barring injury) and there’s no expectation for that to change this year.
The Young Guns – Yaroslav Askarov and Troy Grosenick
Last season (Askarov) – 1 game played, 0-1-0, 88.6% save percentage
The duo of Juuse Saros and Kevin Lankinen look to receive the majority, if not all, of the NHL starts next season, and that is a luxury when it comes to the development pipeline. Both former top-10 draft pick Yaroslav Askarov and Troy Grosenick (returning to the Predators organization) should remain mostly with the Milwaukee Admirals next season, but as we saw last year, don’t be surprised to see Askarov get the spare NHL start here and there as needed.
The future of Nashville’s goaltending has been an exciting development to watch, as Askarov’s pure physical skill and raw talent makes for some extremely entertaining (and sometimes heart-palpitation-inducing) viewing, with the promise that the young Russian will only get better. In his only NHL appearance last season (January 12th at Montreal), the young netminder made 31 of 35 saves in a loss to the Canadiens, posting a 88.6% save percentage behind a makeshift lineup depleted by injury.
In Milwaukee, Askarov seized the starting job in net for the Admirals, posting a record of 26-16-5 in 48 appearances, making 1,304 saves on 1,432 shot attempts against. On the topic of Askarov playing behind a depleted roster, it might have been even more dire in Milwaukee, as Nashville was playing three or more “regular” Milwaukee starters to replace their own, making his third-best win total in the AHL all that more impressive. Not to mention, he only allowed five shootout goals on a staggering 40 attempts against.
Askarov’s development has gone mostly to plan, it seems, with there being no rush to push the young goaltender into NHL duty before he’s ready. Admirals Head Coach Taylor, along with the Preds’ goalie coach Vanderklok, will be able to further refine Askarov’s game, hoping to find a balance between his pure physical talent and his penchant for throwing caution to the wind to make a save. It’s exciting to see what next season has in store for Askarov, and don’t be surprised to see him pick up a handful of NHL starts next season as Nashville continues the path of evaluating the future in net.
Backing up Yaroslav Askarov is returning veteran Troy Grosenick. Grosenick spent a little over two years with the Predators organization from 2017 to 2020, playing 86 games – all for the Milwaukee Admirals. After getting a couple starts with the Los Angeles Kings during the 2020-21 COVID-shortened season, Grosenick has spent time with a handful of AHL teams, playing 4 games for the Ontario Reign, 30 with the Providence Bruins and 6 last season with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Grosenick won’t be a threat to unseat Yaroslav Askarov for the starting job for the Admirals, nor will he likely see any playing time in Predators gold, but he brings a veteran presence to the Ads that should give coach Karl Taylor a chance to rest Askarov and also mentor the young Russian alongside Ben Vanderklok.
All statistics are from NHL.com or Evolving-Hockey.com via Josh and Luke Younggren