Blackhawks vs. Red Wings Western Conference Final preview

The Blogs

Second City Hockey vs. Winging It In Motown

The Storyline

Two Original Six teams add a new chapter to their storied rivalry as the Red Wings, after fighting off Anaheim in a classic, heavyweight seven-game series, host up-and-coming Chicago.  The Blackhawks, whose young stars have written the “feel good” story in the Western Conference this season, beat the Flames and Canucks in six games each to reach their first conference final since 1995, when Detroit took a five-game victory.

The Numbers

This series could turn into a showcase for the “New NHL”, with two high-flying offenses leading the way. Will Detroit’s dominance in the faceoff circle perhaps give them an edge?

Interestingly here, the overall Goals For/Against ratio (which is perhaps the single best measure of a team’s quality) tilts slightly in favor of the Blackhawks. GF/GA for Chicago is 1.24, while for Detroit it stands at 1.20. As good as the Red Wings were this year, the Blackhawks may well be able to stand toe-to-toe with them.

Goaltending

Chicago

Detroit

Chris Osgood has shaken off the critics with an impressive .921 save percentage during the postseason, while Khabibulin hasn’t needed to be nearly as good (.896). A few weeks ago one would have given the clear goaltending edge to Chicago, but the gap would seem to have narrowed. For each goaltender, this round features the toughest opposition to date.

Penalties

No OtF preview would be complete without a look at Penalty Plus/Minus, to see which players will head to, or send other players to, the box:

The Blackhawks enjoyed the 3rd-most power play opportunities (363) in the NHL this season (Detroit was 12th with 353), and those advantages proved crucial in their victories over Calgary and Vancouver in the first two rounds. Both contestants do a decent job staying out of the box as well (Detroit 10th-least with 327 PK’s, Chicago 13th-least with 330). Power play chances might be few and far between, but given the offensive talent on display, they’ll be exciting.

In terms of how Penalty Plus/Minus looks in the playoffs so far, Marian Hossa leads Detroit with a +5 rating in just 11 games, followed by Pavel Datsyuk at +4. For Chicago, Patrick Kane sticks out with a very poor -4 rating; a skilled forward is relied upon to generate power plays, not leave his teammates shorthanded.

The Prediction

This should be a wildly entertaining series, and I have no doubt that the old enmity between these two great hockey cities will be rekindled early on. I was fortunate enough to attend Game 2 of those 1995 Conference Finals when a college buddy scored some tickets, and the energy in the stands and on the ice was something to behold (my friend was from Chicago, and I thought he was going to break down when Jeremy Roenick clanged a shot off the post as time expired, and the Hawks lost 3-2).

Two of my biggest concerns with Detroit were the goaltending and the defensive depth, but so far Osgood has been excellent, and the blueliners have done well (Brad Stuart and Jonathan Ericsson in particular). The Blackhawks will test them repeatedly, however, and Dustin Byfuglien might prove the most physically demanding obstacle they’ve faced yet. For Chicago, their defense will be tested as never before, as Detroit constantly seems to fire pucks on net.

As I review all of this information, the one nagging thing that comes back to me is Chris Osgood. Can he continue to perform, or will the spotty regular season play come back to bite him and the Wings? I’m guessing that he’ll either hold down the fort, or Ty Conklin will do well enough as a backup for the Detroit Red Wings to win a closely played, but dynamic series.

Which team will win this series?