The “General Manager Barry Trotz” era began yesterday for the Nashville Predators, and what a first day on the job. Trotz was tasked with rebuilding a roster marked by an exodus of veterans and a complicated cap future on the first day of the 2023 free agency period.
The Predators weren’t out to make any huge splashes in free agency, although with over $8 million in cap space remaining, there may be some bigger deals in the works (Alex DeBrincat is the obvious option). Still, the Trotz era begins with Predators fans adjusting their expectations for the free agency period – gone are the “one-piece away” type of acquisitions. New Head Coach Andrew Brunette is looking for pieces that will fill out the roster – and in some cases, pieces that aren’t much more than warm bodies.
Here’s the analysis of each acquisition on day one of free agency.
F Gustav Nyquist
Unrestricted Free Agent – 2 years, $3.185 million AAV, 3.81% of total cap hit
Career Totals:
703 GP, 175 goals, 428 points – Playoffs: 71 GP, 5 goals, 26 points
Last Season:
Columbus: 48 GP, 10 goals, 22 points
Minnesota: 3 GP, 1 goal, 5 points – Playoffs: 6 GP, 0 goals, 5 points
Analysis:
Fans may have questioned this move as the former Columbus Blue Jacket and Minnesota Wild forward is coming off a disappointing season with just 11 goals and 27 points in 51 games. But a signing like Nyquist is going to be emblematic of General Manager Barry Trotz’s acquisitions going forward: a cost-effective signing that can slot in, but isn’t likely to wow anyone. With the organization building for the future, a two-year deal worth almost $3.2 million is low-cost in grand scheme of things (3.8% of the total cap hit), but Nyquist’s underlying numbers match what we saw on the scoresheet last season.
Nyquist has performed very much like an average, replacement level player at 33 – he’s not generating scoring either by himself or setting up his teammates, and is serviceable defensively. He adds very little to the power play, meaning the Predators will have to hope they have enough talent to relegate Nyquist to the second unit.
There are flashes of upside – he fits the bill of a great skater that Head Coach Andrew Brunette looks for, and he’s had 10+ goals, 20+ point seasons in all but two seasons since his NHL debut in 2011. I’m not a fan of the cost, but Evolving Hockey’s contract projects had Nyquist commanding a 3-year, $4.1 million deal, so $3.2 million is fine. Get used to this folks, this is how the rebuilding Predators will be manned for awhile.
Grade: C+
Isolated Impact
D Luke Schenn
Unrestricted Free Agent – 3 years, $2.75 million AAV, 3.29% of total cap hit
Career Totals:
933 GP, 42 goals, 191 points – Playoffs: 42 GP, 3 goals, 7 points
Last Season:
Vancouver: 55 GP, 3 goals, 21 points
Toronto: 15 GP, 1 goal, 1 point
Analysis:
Fresh off my soapbox in the last signing of “get used to replacement-level players”, I’m going to contradict myself and say that I’m not a fan of this signing. Projected by Evolving Hockey to get a 2 year, $1.5 million deal, this is an overpayment over too long of a term for an older player that struggles in nearly every department.
Schenn struggled heavily defensively, both at even strength and on the penalty kill, and is heavily reliant on shots from the right point that can be redirected by his teammates – hence the 4 goal, 18 assist season. Nashville’s young roster going forward is likely going to have some penalty issues as the group tries to gel and adjust to a high-flying Brunette offense, and there are few players in the NHL who draw penalties as often as Schenn does.
I would be higher on this signing for $1 million less and for 2 fewer years. He’s a solid piece to fill this decimated roster next season, but by the end of the year, there will likely be several deserving players in the pipeline that will be out of a spot because of his deal.
Grade: D+
Isolated Impact
F Ryan O’Reilly
Unrestricted Free Agent: 4 years, $4.5 million AAV, 5.39% of total cap hit
Career Totals:
991 GP, 256 goals, 702 points – Playoffs: 75 GP, 25 goals, 65 points
Last Season:
St. Louis – 40 GP, 12 goals, 19 points
Toronto – 13 GP, 4 goals, 11 points – Playoffs: 11 GP, 3 goals, 9 points
Analysis:
Nashville fans are used to a “veteran presence” addition being someone that is at the twilight of their career. O’Reilly, in my opinion is the best case scenario. The 2019 Conn Smythe winner with the St. Louis Blues took home the Stanley Cup, and despite disappointing offensive totals last year, “ROR” is still a dangerous player.
His offensive impact is among the best on the roster – a staggering 17% better than league average, and it’s easy to see why – he creates offense at the net at an incredibly high-rate. He can also facilitate the offense from the draw, where his faceoff percentage of 62% is among the elite in the NHL.
O’Reilly is pretty solid defensively as well, preventing shot quality against at a rate 2% better than league average. He’s the type of player that can form a core with what’s left of the offensive lineup, and benefit any line that he may play on.
The four-year, $4.5 million deal does feel a bit high with the team looking to get younger, but O’Reilly is worth the premium for a team that is firmly in transition going forward.
Grade: A
Isolated Impact
D Alex Carrier
Restricted Free Agent: 1 year, $2.5 million AAV, 2.99% of total cap hit
Career Totals:
114 GP, 6 goals, 42 points – Playoffs: 10 GP, 0 goals, 5 points
Last Season:
Nashville – 43 GP, 2 goals, 9 points
Analysis:
Both Brunette and Trotz have publicly clamored for younger, faster players to play in an up-tempo offense, and long-time Milwaukee Admiral and Nashville Predator defenseman Alex Carrier fits the bill exactly.
Carrier was forced into top pair minutes with the departure of Mattias Ekholm and an injury-plagued Predators team, and for the most part Carrier answered the bell. Carrier excels in transition, not quite at the level of Roman Josi (but who else is?). He was snakebit last season offensively, producing just 2 goals and 9 points in 43 games, and his injury status in the latter half of the season makes one wonder if he’s durable enough to remain a top-pair player.
Despite last season – one in which everyone on the team struggled – his breakout 2021-22 campaign is more representative of the player that Nashville developed in Milwaukee for so long. Carrier has the ability to quarterback the second power play unit, can contribute all 200 feet of the ice and has matured into a smart decision maker that is able to create plays more often than give them up.
I predicted that Carrier would return to Nashville, but I thought he had a case to go to arbitration after playing 120 games in the last two season and get a bit more. It seems both Nashville and Carrier were satisfied with the 1 year, $2.5 million deal – quite the upgrade from his $700,000 three-year deal that just expired. The Predators maintained a player they developed for a long time, he’s a great fit for the team going forward, and got great value in the process. Next season, Carrier will be an unrestricted free agent – so if injury problems rear their head, the Predators aren’t on the hook.
Grade: A-
Isolated Impact
Forward Cody Glass
Restricted Free Agent: 2 years, $2.5 million AAV, 2.99% of total cap hit (RFA at end of deal)
Career Totals:
146 GP, 23 goals, 58 points – Playoffs: 3 GP, 0 goals, 0 points
Last Season:
Nashville – 72 GP, 14 goals, 35 points
Analysis:
Alongside Alex Carrier, “reclamation project” Cody Glass were the only restricted free agents given a qualifying offer. And the Predators scored again in retaining these players who will likely have a large role to play in the direction of this team.
The former 6th overall pick in 2017 disappointed for the Golden Knights, where he struggled to 9 goals and 22 points in 66 games in Vegas. But after a trade to Nashville that saw him start with the Admirals and work his way up to a 72 game, 14 goal player last season, it’s safe to say that the acquisition of Cody Glass has been a success so far.
Like some of the other members of this free-agent class, Glass left some scoring on the table – he excelled at generating offense for the Predators, but struggled to convert that into goals, but he is trending in the right direction offensively. Defense is where Glass really shines, playing extremely well in the defensive zone – with Glass on the ice, the Predators reduce opponent shot quality 7% better than league average.
As with Carrier, Glass also had a strong argument for arbitration, but again, there was little doubt that he would wear gold next season. Evolving Hockey predicted a 2-year, $2.35 million deal – which was spot on – and Cody Glass will also be a restricted free agent once again at the end of this deal. If there were any “no-brainer” signings for Nashville, Carrier and Glass were it, and Nashville passed with flying colors.
Grade: A+
Isolated Impact
G Troy Grosenick
Unrestricted Free Agent: Two-way, 1 year, $775,000 AAV, 0.93% of total cap hit
Career Totals:
NHL: 4 GP, 2-2-0 – 93.3% save percentage, 1 shutout
AHL: 294 GP, 152-93-30 – 90.3% save percentage, 2 shutouts
Last Season:
Lehigh Valley (AHL) – 6 GP, 3-2-0, 89.2% save percentage, 0 shutouts
Analysis:
Had attempts to move either Juuse Saros or Yaroslav Askarov come to fruition, a free-agent goaltender signing would be immensely important. Instead, with the departures of AHL goaltenders Devin Cooley and Tomas Vomacka, Nashville was instead in the market for an Askarov backup in Milwaukee, and brought Troy Grosenick back to Milwaukee.
Between two-game NHL stings with San Jose and the Los Angeles Kings, Grosenick played 86 games for the Milwaukee Admirals. However, Grosenick only played six games for the AHL’s Lehigh Valley last season with an 89.2% save percentage, but the Admirals weren’t looking for a 1B to Askarov’s 1A next year. Instead, they get a veteran they know, and should be an adequate backup for Nashville’s goaltender of the future.
Grade: NHL: n/a, AHL: B-
F Anthony Angello
Unrestricted Free Agent: Two-way, 2 years, $775,000 AAV, 0.93% of total cap
Career Totals:
NHL: 31 GP, 3 goals, 5 points
AHL: 233 GP, 58 goals, 106 points – Playoffs: 23 GP, 3 goals, 6 points
Last Season:
Springfield (AHL) – 45 GP, 6 goals, 11 points
Milwaukee (AHL) – 17 GP, 7 goals, 12 points – Playoffs: 16 GP, 1 goal, 3 points
Analysis:
Along with Grosenick, Anthony Angello is another signing that is 100% bound for Milwaukee, and likely won’t see NHL minutes. Angello joined the Admirals in the middle of last season, and exceeded his goal and point totals in almost a third of the time (17 GP, 7G, 12P with Milwaukee to 45 GP, 6G, 11P in Springfield). Angello’s instant impact helped carry the Admirals into the playoffs with a depleted roster, and was also a stalwart presence in the playoffs.
Despite that, Angello was a maddening player to watch in an Admirals uniform. Angello picked up 50 penalty minutes in 35 games in both the regular season and playoffs, with 28 in just 16 playoff games on a team that faced the penalty kill a little too often. He’s a hard-hitting role player that teams are built on, but he wasn’t talented enough to be worth the heavy penalty toll he carried in what could be the final campaign of Milwaukee Head Coach Karl Taylor.
Grade: NHL: n/a, AHL: C-
Isolated Impact
Statistics were drawn from HockeyViz.com and Evolving-Hockey, and contract details from CapFriendly.