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Game Preview: Nashville Predators vs Washington Capitals 12/16/23

Jan 6, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals center Evgeny Kuznetsov (92) attempts to shoot the puck on Nashville Predators goaltender Kevin Lankinen (32) as Predators defenseman Ryan McDonagh (27) defends in the third period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Preds return home after a very hectic game last night to face the Washington Capitals, who would probably love to also score five and like it even better if Alex Ovechkin scored all five.

Despite getting good goaltending, the Caps have been struggling to score. Their offense hasn’t been great, and they’ve combined that with bad shooting luck, not only at even strength but–to an honestly shocking extent–on the power play.

Visualization showing how each team’s power play and penalty kill compare to what you’d expect to see given the chances they’ve had, with the Capitals defining the worst edge of the chart for power-play success (they’ve scored less than half as many goals as you’d expect on the power play).

The Preds shouldn’t rely on this luck continuing; the Capitals have the personnel to have a tremendously successful power play, and their struggles with the skater advantage are significantly responsible for their struggles this season.

Tom Wilson leads the team in points, with 17, and is a neat second in goals with 10. Dylan Strome is the goals leader with 12, and ties for second in points with Ovechkin at 16. John Carlson is the assists leader, with 14; Ovechkin lands second, with 11. Everything is upside down and inside out with Nicklas Bäckström on IR (and possibly not returning) and what sounds like it’s been a real mess of a top line.

Youngsters Connor McMichael and Aliaksei Protas have been noteworthy contributors as well, with Protas being one of the team’s better possession players and both being among the best generators of chances. Hardy Häman Aktell, who’s currently playing in the AHL, has been the real standout in chance share; it’s possible that his demotion is a symptom of whatever’s been afflicting the Caps this season.

Charlie Lindgren has been great as the 1B goalie, putting up a .929 over 11 games, while Darcy Kuemper has struggled more as the 1A, with a .892 in 14 games. The Caps do seem to have had better scoring luck their last few games, but they’ve still lost two of them thanks to shakier goaltending in those matches.

Tonight’s game airs at 7PM Central on Bally Sports South and 102.5 The Game.


Statistics from naturalstattrick.com. Additional background from hockeyviz.com.