The Predators are 15 games into the season, and it’s still difficult to get a good feel for how the 2023-24 campaign will go for the team. The current standings aren’t pretty, though.
Nashville’s 5-10-0 record puts it at the bottom of the Central Division. At their current pace, the Predators would very much be in the Macklin Celebrini sweepstakes. But the underlying numbers suggest that not everything might be as bad as it seems in Smashville. Here are a few notes, with the caveat that it is still very, very early:
Is Ryan O’Reilly turning back the clock?
The Predators raised a few eyebrows in the offseason when they signed former St. Louis Blues center Ryan O’Reilly to a four-year deal worth $4.5 million per season, especially after buying out Matt Duchene and trading Ryan Johansen. O’Reilly played a pivotal role in the Blues’ Stanley Cup win in 2019, leading them in points in the regular season and the playoffs while taking home both the Conn Smythe Trophy and the Selke Trophy.
But signing forwards past the age of 30 to lengthy deals is a risky proposition. Four seasons have passed since that Cup run, and O’Reilly had just suffered through a snakebitten year where he posted only 30 points in 53 games. Tasking him with being the Preds’ top-line center seemed risky.
Yet O’Reilly has risen to the occasion so far for the Predators. He’s second on the team in xGF% at 5v5 at an astonishing 59.7%, according to Natural Stat Trick, while recording 14 points in 15 games. When he’s off the ice, the Preds have been out-attempted and dip just below 50% in xGF%.
O’Reilly has been attached to Filip Forsberg on the top line with Juuso Pärssinen and Gustav Nyquist rotating as the third forward. Both combinations are in the top 20 in the league in xGF% among lines with at least 50 minutes, per Evolving-Hockey. With Pärssinen, they’ve enjoyed a better expected-goals share (71.36%) while unfortunately getting outscored 4-2, but Nashville has outscored opponents 9-3 with Nyquist on the top line while still enjoying territorial dominance.
O’Reilly’s presence on the top line has also benefited Forsberg. The Swede had a difficult season last year that saw him miss time with injury and score just 19 goals, his lowest goal total in a full season outside of the pandemic-affected 2020-21 season.
But Forsberg has caught fire in recent games, scoring five goals in his last three. He’s currently Nashville’s leading scorer with 18 points, putting him on pace to easily surpass his career high of 84 back in 2021-22.
Playing the percentages
One of the major issues that the Preds have run into this season is that they have been losing games despite carrying play.
Nashville has been one of the better teams in the league at controlling play at five-on-five, rocking a 53% xGF%–which is ninth in the league as of this writing–per Natural Stat Trick. However, the Predators are still getting outscored 28-25 in that situation.
Public models haven’t been too kind to Juuse Saros’s performance so far, either. Evolving-Hockey’s goals-saved-above-expected model has him at -3.44, sandwiched between the exiled Jack Campbell and Ilya Samsonov. MoneyPuck puts Saros alongside Filip Gustavsson for last place among goalies with a minimum of 8 games played at -7.3. Both of these numbers suggest that Saros has allowed more goals than expected based on the quality of shots that Nashville has allowed.
It’s not just Saros underachieving, either. Nashville has struggled to turn chances into goals this season as well.
Nashville has scored 25 goals on 31.4 expected goals at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick. While it’s not ideal, it’s also not as heinous as, say, Edmonton (23 on 35.8 expected) or San Jose (12 on 28.3 expected). Even the New Jersey Devils, a preseason contender, have just 22 goals on 32.3 expected.
But it’s still a problem that has to be reckoned with, especially after parting ways with two plus-finishers in Johansen and Duchene.
The injured Ryan McDonagh has arguably been the one most penalized by the percentages not tilting in his favor. He has one of the biggest differences on the team between his expected-goals share and what’s actually happened on the ice.
McDonagh has played his fair share of minutes with O’Reilly, but both players have had solid results with and away from each other. Both players have posted an xGF% well above 50 in over 100 minutes without the other.
Yet McDonagh has been outscored 4-2 at five-on-five this season, and only Pärssinen has a worse GF%. He’s sporting an on-ice shooting percentage below 3% at five-on-five. The 34-year-old defender had a difficult year in Nashville last season, but getting him back healthy and hopefully a bit luckier would be huge.
The Preds as a whole
It’s too early to think the sky is falling in Bridgestone Arena. Yes, Nashville is currently hanging around the basement of the NHL standings, but the Predators have simply been too good at five-on-five to be that bad. They’re somehow tied on points with Chicago as of this writing, but the Blackhawks regularly get smoked at five-on-five on a nightly basis (41.3%).
It’s still early, and there are positive signs. New additions like O’Reilly and Nyquist have impressed so far, and younger players like Luke Evangelista and Tommy Novak have flashed. Forsberg looks like himself after a difficult season last year. Andrew Brunette seems like a solid fit as the Preds’ head coach.
There are still some question marks, like what is going on with Saros, whose .892 save percentage is by far the worst of his career outside of the 2015-16 season where he made one appearance. But on the whole, if the results start matching the process, it’s hard to ask for more out of this Predators team as it retools itself.
And if the actual on-ice results keep trending in this direction, having a shot at Celebrini wouldn’t hurt the re-tool, either.