NHL Free Agency 2013: Forwards the Nashville Predators Should Pursue

Nashville has traditionally been known for having more talent on the blueline and in goal over the years, and that was before the team traded Martin Erat away a few months ago, or placed Sergei Kostitsyn on unconditional waivers. Along with those two out of the way, the coming departure of Hal Gill frees up more financial room for the Predators to wade into the thick of the bidding for this summer’s free agent crop.

The following forwards could make fine additions to the Nashville lineup…

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Season	GP	TOI/60	Pts/60	Corsi Rel	On-Ice Sht %	On-Ice Sv%	PDO	Pen Take	Pen Drawn	OZ Strt%	Shots/60
2013	48	13.57	1.47	+16.9	5.8	897	956	1.1	1.3	50.8	11.88
2012	80	13.07	1.66	+3.1	7.8	907	985	1.4	2.0	49.4	10.33
2011	82	11.93	0.98	-0.5	4.1	917	958	0.9	0.7	49.3	10.61
2010	46	12.03	1.95	-9.1	11.0	916	1026	1.5	1.2	51.6	9.22
2009	82	10.49	1.81	-6.0	7.6	930	1006	1.3	1.4	50.7	9.35
2008	81	11.46	1.29	-5.0	10.3	906	1009	1.9	1.9	48.9	9.31

Fancy Stats from Behind The Net

Clarkson’s an interesting case – he has taken his game to another level in the last two seasons, and drives pucks to the net with abandon. Even though he takes quite a few penalties, he actually draws more from his opponents, which is a nice bonus. He will surely command top dollar, but might well be worth it.

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Season	GP	TOI/60	Pts/60	Corsi Rel	On-Ice Sht %	On-Ice Sv%	PDO	Pen Take	Pen Drawn	OZ Strt%	Shots/60
2013	43	14.31	1.95	+9.3	8.5	898	982	0.5	0.7	60.4	9.95
2012	46	13.05	2.40	+16.6	9.6	877	973	1.4	0.4	56.0	6.80
2011	80	13.60	2.48	+13.3	10.9	929	1038	0.8	0.8	52.3	8.05
2010	65	15.36	2.58	+11.3	11.6	909	1025	0.7	1.2	46.2	6.43
2009	67	13.48	1.79	+5.7	10.0	913	1012	1.3	1.0	55.4	5.91
2008	82	14.66	2.00	+7.3	9.9	929	1028	0.8	0.8	52.1	7.94

A power forward with chronic shoulder issues and a history of concussions? I know Horton has had two strong playoffs in a row, boasts excellent possession metrics as seen in the table above and is a six-time 20 goal scorer, but there is tremendous danger in extending him a long-term contract. His shoulder may well pop out of joint as he reaches to sign the darned thing.

It’s hard to ignore his history of impressive performance, however. Remember, that “Corsi Rel” column shows that player’s Corsi metrics compared to how his team fares when he’s on the bench. Boston is generally a strong team in that area, so Horton’s consistently positive results there stand out even more. If health & durability issues can be addressed to Nashville’s satisfaction, Horton could fit right in.

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Season	GP	TOI/60	Pts/60	Corsi Rel	On-Ice Sht %	On-Ice Sv%	PDO	Pen Take	Pen Drawn	OZ Strt%	Shots/60
2013	17	13.74	0.51	-15.5	4.4	876	920	0.5	0.3	57.4	3.08
2012	80	15.19	1.88	-2.2	10.1	917	1017	0.8	0.7	55.6	4.94
2011	76	14.40	1.43	+0.1	7.7	907	984	0.8	0.3	47.6	6.25
2010	80	14.52	1.76	+10.6	9.2	915	1007	0.6	0.5	47.0	5.73
2009	78	13.05	2.06	+12.4	10.5	929	1034	0.5	0.9	45.5	5.72
2008	74	13.42	1.57	+8.7	9.4	931	1026	0.9	1.0	53.0	5.14

Weiss wouldn’t make the most thrilling of additions at center, but a lineup of Fisher-Weiss-Legwand-Gaustad would at least boast excellent depth. If the Preds wanted to go three lines deep with decent offensive talent as opposed to loading up a “top line”, Weiss could help make that happen.

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Season	GP	TOI/60	Pts/60	Corsi Rel	On-Ice Sht %	On-Ice Sv%	PDO	Pen Take	Pen Drawn	OZ Strt%	Shots/60
2013	42	13.79	1.86	+8.8	8.7	935	1022	0.1	0.6	41.7	6.11
2012	80	14.22	1.58	+5.4	8.1	912	994	1.2	0.8	48.9	6.28
2011	35	13.53	2.53	-6.1	9.3	912	1005	0.6	1.1	61.3	6.21
2010	80	13.75	2.13	+4.2	8.6	922	1007	0.9	1.5	51.6	7.31
2009	82	13.86	1.95	+2.3	8.1	917	998	0.6	1.6	50.9	7.13
2008	78	13.73	2.86	+13.3	11.3	882	995	0.7	1.8	54.2	8.24

Much like Weiss, Roy wouldn’t blow our doors off in terms of adding a star player, but he does boast a pretty solid two-way game, and draws penalties well. I’d take him over Weiss, personally.

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Season	GP	TOI/60	Pts/60	Corsi Rel	On-Ice Sht %	On-Ice Sv%	PDO	Pen Take	Pen Drawn	OZ Strt%	Shots/60
2013	45	14.74	1.99	+8.0	10.3	901	1004	0.5	1.0	53.0	6.51
2012	73	12.47	2.04	+10.0	9.1	907	998	0.7	1.1	59.9	7.32

Sooooo dreamy… But forget about it, Jagr’s not coming here.

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Season	GP	TOI/60	Pts/60	Corsi Rel	On-Ice Sht %	On-Ice Sv%	PDO	Pen Take	Pen Drawn	OZ Strt%	Shots/60
2013	40	12.96	1.50	+16.2	9.2	923	1015	0.8	0.5	45.7	6.25
2012	73	13.61	1.99	+7.2	9.5	914	1009	0.8	1.0	52.8	7.79
2011	82	13.97	2.25	+19.3	9.6	909	1005	0.5	1.2	49.5	6.02
2010	81	12.00	1.54	-1.1	7.3	907	980	0.6	0.9	47.2	6.23
2009	71	11.37	1.34	+4.1	7.1	918	989	1.3	1.0	44.9	6.47
2008	37	12.51	1.82	-10.8	10.7	925	1032	1.3	0.5	45.7	6.22

Now here’s an interesting prospect – he hit the 20-goal mark in each of the last two full NHL seasons, and has established himself as a strong driver of Shots For & Against.

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Season	GP	TOI/60	Pts/60	Corsi Rel	On-Ice Sht %	On-Ice Sv%	PDO	Pen Take	Pen Drawn	OZ Strt%	Shots/60
2013	46	12.84	1.73	-0.1	8.9	915	1004	0.8	0.6	56.5	6.81
2012	82	14.28	2.51	+0.7	10.9	921	1030	0.8	0.4	51.8	8.66
2011	79	12.15	1.63	-7.1	8.1	927	1008	0.8	1.1	50.1	7.94
2010	82	12.62	1.33	+0.0	7.3	941	1014	0.3	0.8	50.8	8.47
2009	74	11.53	2.46	+7.9	12.6	942	1068	0.8	0.9	50.0	8.51
2008	70	10.81	1.35	+6.1	8.7	920	1007	0.9	1.1	49.0	7.37

He’s a 3-time 30 goal scorer who was near that pace again in this shortened season – while not a great force at puck possession, he could provide a solid 1-2 scoring punch on the right wing with Patric Hornqvist.

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Season	GP	TOI/60	Pts/60	Corsi Rel	On-Ice Sht %	On-Ice Sv%	PDO	Pen Take	Pen Drawn	OZ Strt%	Shots/60
2013	40	13.80	1.41	+7.5	8.2	922	1005	1.0	0.5	52.3	8.26
2012	76	15.03	1.52	+2.2	7.2	916	988	0.7	0.8	57.2	7.30
2011	75	15.07	2.44	+13.5	7.9	919	998	0.8	1.1	50.7	7.59
2010	82	14.33	2.04	+4.9	8.4	918	1001	1.2	0.8	48.7	8.27
2009	71	13.80	1.53	+4.5	7.2	927	999	0.6	1.6	53.6	7.10
2008	15	11.58	2.07	+11.4	8.9	867	955	1.4	2.4	50.0	6.22

Once in a radio interview Barry Trotz was asked which player around the league most exemplified “Predator hockey”, and his answer was Ryane Clowe. After a criminally cold-shooting season, he may become a classic “buy low” opportunity who could add beef & scoring from the right wing.

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Season	GP	TOI/60	Pts/60	Corsi Rel	On-Ice Sht %	On-Ice Sv%	PDO	Pen Take	Pen Drawn	OZ Strt%	Shots/60
2013	47	11.57	2.10	+3.2	9.3	960	1053	0.8	0.9	63.9	10.70
2012	79	13.30	2.34	+11.8	8.1	902	983	0.9	0.9	63.6	11.42
2011	77	10.36	1.65	+11.0	7.3	899	972	1.3	1.4	60.3	9.63
2010	40	12.02	1.37	-2.8	4.8	900	948	1.0	1.2	62.2	12.10

While not a leading player in the Chicago Blackhawks Stanley Cup championship, Stalberg is an extremely interesting winger. Much as with Horton above, he has been one of the better puck-possession guys on a consistently excellent team across multiple years. If you check over at HockeyAnalysis.com, you’ll see that over the last three seasons with the Blackhawks, all the top guys put up better results with Stalberg than without him.