Today is the second part of the third installment of a wholesale look at the Predators’ organizational pipeline. This is a position-by-position analysis based on what this summer will hold and what the future will dictate. You can check out the first installment—focusing on wingers—here and the second installment – goalies – here.
Once again, an explanation of what this is all about:
I will provide a look at what the organization has at each position, a graded breakdown of every players’ present and future, and contract situation.
Each player will be assigned four numbers and a label: a transition game grade, a defensive zone play grade, an AHL ability grade (if they aren’t already in the AHL, we know they can play in their current league), an NHL potential grade, and a three-year projection.
Grades will be assigned on a 2-8 scale (if you’re familiar with the 20-80 scale it’s the same thing). On this scale, 5 represents an NHL average grade, whereas 2 represents – well, hopefully, I won’t be assigning any 2’s – and 8 represents a generational talent or skill level. I’m borrowing this from a few sources – I know Corey Pronman has used it for a while, so hopefully, it makes sense.
The list below is a tiered ranking of the defensemen in the organization. This ranking factors current production and also future in the organization.
Players Under Contract: Frederic Allard, Alexandre Carrier, Jack Dougherty, Joonas Lyytinen, Filip Pyrochta
Players on Reserve: Dante Fabbro, David Farrance, Hardy Haman Aktell, Jacob Paquette, Adam Smith, Taylor Aronson, Scott Valentine, Stefan Elliott
Impending UFAs: John Ramage, Jimmy Oligny, Rick Pinkston
AHL Contracts: Matt Donovan
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Jack Dougherty, 22, Milwaukee Admirals
Transition: 5.5
Defensive Zone: 6.0
AHL Ability: 6.0
NHL Potential: 5.5
3-Year Projection: No longer with the organization
Dougherty is the third member of the baby-Four Horsemen – a group that could shape up to be dominant in the AHL and all serviceable NHL players. Dougherty, like Carrier, has now finished two full seasons in Milwaukee. In 63 games last season, Dougherty scored 1 goal and 12 points.
He is likely the most defensively-minded of the group but struggled extensively this past year. Sure the group struggled as a whole, but Dougherty’s play was down-right concerning at times. As one of the team’s ice time leaders, Dougherty finished with a putrid 36.25% goals-for percentage.
If I had to pick one of the four to flatline as a career-AHL player, it’s Dougherty. But, I’m not going to indict him for one horrid season when a massive team turnover is occuring this summer with a (hopefully) new system in place next year.
With the possibility that he becomes the next Trevor Murphy, this is a big season for Dougherty. He’s an RFA come next June, and the organization will have an interesting decision to make.
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Joonas Lyytinen, 23, Milwaukee Admirals
Transition: 5.5
Defensive Zone: 5.5
AHL Ability: 5.5
NHL Potential: 5.5
3-Year Projection: NHL/ AHL Bubble Player
The elder statesman of this group of four in the minors, Lyytinen is a really interesting case. I didn’t know much what to expect in his first year in North America, but I was pleasantly surprised at times. He spent two brief stints in the ECHL and looked dominant at times but also looked out of place at times in the AHL. Evason & Co. sheltered him at times, but the failures of the group didn’t help his development.
I think Lyytinen has a shot at the NHL solely because of how positionally sound he is. He isn’t a player who will pull you out of your seat, but he doesn’t make many critical errors. I don’t think it’s likely he becomes an NHL regular, but you never know.
Something to watch will be how much power play and penalty kill time Lyytinen gets this upcoming season.
Like Dougherty, Lyytinen will be an RFA next summer.
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Dante Fabbro, 19, Boston University
Transition: 7.0
Defensive Zone: 6.5
AHL Ability: 7.5
NHL Potential: 7.0
3-Year Projection: Top-4 NHL Defenseman
This is what you all came for, right? Fabbro is clearly the prospect du jour for Preds fans these days and rightfully so. I’ll come clean and say that I was maybe wrongfully hesitant about his game at the start of this past season.
It’s almost a definite that Fabbro will be back at BU this season. I can’t think of any reason why he won’t. But hey, that does nothing but help him! If he can improve on a 29-point, 38-game season, then more power to him. Fabbro is shaping up to be a real Charlie McAvoy-type player and that is exciting.
But even if he needs a year in the AHL in 2019-20 don’t be concerned!
You guys know the drill when it comes to contract rights for college players: NHL teams have four years to sign college players, which must happen by August 15th after they graduate or by 30 days/June 1st (whichever comes first) after they withdraw from school.
From what I understand, Fabbro made it clear to the organization that he wants to be at BU next year and they’ll respect that. But he does intend on signing with the team after his junior or senior year.
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David Farrance, 18, Boston University
Transition: 6.0
Defensive Zone: 5.0
AHL Ability: 5.0
NHL Potential: 4.5
3-Year Projection: Full-time AHL Defenseman
Oh, the other BU defenseman. Farrance is another interesting case. When the season started, at times he looked like an absolute bust. But, some lineup changes changed things and Farrance looked outright impressive at times in the spring.
A freshman season of 9 points in 31 games is impressive for someone who was in and out of the lineup and often suited up as the team’s seventh defenseman. Ice time should increase this year, but he still won’t be a top pairing guy.
Regardless, Farrance has high-end skill. He may not have much NHL potential compared to others in the organization, but he can seriously play both at forward and on defense.
The Predators hold his rights until August 15, 2021.
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Adam Smith, 21, Bowling Green State University
Transition: 4.5
Defensive Zone: 5.0
AHL Ability: 4.5
NHL Potential: 3.0
3-Year Projection: No longer with the organization
Smith is the other mystery in the organization – no wonder I wrote about him and Aktell in the same piece.
It was really interesting talking to his coach at BGSU and finding out what kind of player he is. He’s someone you cheer for but likely doesn’t have a future in the organization. He will probably find a home in the AHL or ECHL after next season, but it won’t be under contract with the Predators.
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Taylor Aronson, 26, Thomas Sabo Ice Tigers
Transition: 4.5
Defensive Zone: 4.0
AHL Ability: 4.5
NHL Potential: 2.5
3-Year Projection: Extending his career in Europe
Aronson is one of three defensemen that the organization has on reserve indefinitely because they play in leagues that don’t have a transfer agreement with the NHL.
He famously stormed out of the pipeline when frustrated that others were given a shot over him, and he’s never coming back. Ah well.
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Scott Valentine, 27, Augsburger Panther
Transition: 4.5
Defensive Zone: 4.0
AHL Ability: 4.5
NHL Potential: 2.5
3-Year Projection: Extending his career in Europe
Valentine is the second defenseman who is on indefinite reserve, but I’m on a mission to prove that the organization doesn’t actually own his rights still. Please indulge me in my conspiracies.
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Stefan Elliott, 27, HV71
Transition: 4.5
Defensive Zone: 4.0
AHL Ability: 4.5
NHL Potential: 2.5
3-Year Projection: Extending his career in Europe
The third and final player in this group. Elliott did play at the Olympics but was a non-factor. He also has no future in the organization.
All statistics are courtesy of eliteprospects.com or Colin Cudmore. All contract information is courtesy of capfriendly.com.