If you’re a fan of elite defenders, boy is this the series for you. The 2023-24 Norris Trophy race can be basically summed up by this series: the Pacific champion Vancouver Canucks are led by captain and Norris frontrunner Quinn Hughes, who took an early lead for the award and really never looked back. On the other side are your Nashville Predators and their captain Roman Josi–both took some time to get started, but after the calendar turned, both the team and captain went on a tear that rocketed the Preds up the standings. And while the PHWA has already submitted their ballots for the end-of-season awards, getting to see Hughes and Josi face off will be a delight for those who love watching elite blueliners in their prime.
The two (in my opinion) Norris frontrunners have had elite seasons up until this point. In the box score statistics (among defenders), there’s very little doubt that both players have been incredibly successful:
- Quinn Hughes – VAN:
- Goals: 17 (tied 6th)
- Assists: 75 (1st)
- Points: 92 (1st)
- Even-strength Goals: 12 (tied 6th)
- Even-strength Points: 54 (1st)
- Power play Goals: 5 (tied 9th)
- Power play Points: 38 (2nd)
- Roman Josi – NSH:
- Goals: 23 (1st)
- Assists: 62 (5th)
- Points: 85 (3rd)
- Even-strength Goals: 14 (tied 2nd)
- Even-strength Points: 51 (2nd)
- Power play Goals: 9 (1st)
- Power play Points: 33 (tied 4th)
Hughes also has a slight advantage in Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR) metric, with a 24.9 GAR (first in the NHL) compared to Josi’s 22.0 (3rd). But it’s hard to argue that there’s a single NHL defender that had more of an impact in the second half of the season than Roman Josi, and he hopes to carry that momentum into this series.
After the top players, however, there’s a bit of a drop-off. Filip Hronek had a pretty great season for the Canucks from what I watched on film, same with Ian Cole–and the advanced metrics reflect that, making three of the top four blue-liners from Vancouver. However, in what could be maybe GM Barry Trotz’s smartest move of the trade deadline, he decided to not trade Alex Carrier, who has continued to be a sensation for Nashville, and who with Ryan McDonagh has brought good depth in the defense corps that is somewhat lacking after the top three.
Spencer Statsney has had a solid impact in just twenty games for the Nashville Predators, but the biggest X-factor for this matchup is what happens with Dante Fabbro. Seemingly living in Andrew Brunette’s doghouse later in the season, the former “1D of the future” has only suited up for 56 games (10th most among defenders in this matchup) despite pretty great on-ice results.
The pairing of Josi and Fabbro has been one of the highest-performing in the league, but he’s been a scratch more often than not of late, and if and when he gets to play could determine a lot about this series. I struggle to think of a single reason why having Luke Schenn or Tyson Barrie in the lineup is better than Dante Fabbro, and here’s hoping Brunette agrees.
Speaking of Luke Schenn, the former Canuck and the owner of the second-lowest GAR on the Nashville roster (unfortunately still ahead of Cody Glass), has apparently played an important role according to the staff and will likely see playing time in the series. For Vancouver, another oft-maligned defender is Tyler Myers, who brings some positive impact on offense, but struggles defensively and can be a point of weakness for Nashville to exploit. NHL single-season hits record-holder Jeremy Lauzon grades out the same as Myers, but plays a much more solid defensive game and while he is offensively not great, the Predators don’t utilize him in that role.
The Verdict
There’s no denying what a fun matchup it will be with both Hughes and Josi on the ice as two of the best defenders in the entire world, and while Hughes boasts an advantage in both the statistics, Josi is right there with him and usually plays with lesser players than his Vancouver counterparts–not to mention the second-half tear that helped lead Nashville back to the playoffs after a year’s hiatus. When it comes to depth, Vancouver again boasts an advantage in my opinion, but I think that the roster in Nashville can be utilized to their strengths and hopefully minimize that advantage.
These defenders are going to be vital because the impact of goaltending on this series is going to be crucial to Nashville’s success, and I think that the Predators’ defensive impact will be paramount to giving Juuse Saros what he needs to succeed after an average season by the usually-elite netminder.
I’ll give the slight advantage to Vancouver here, mostly because of the penalty kill being weaker for the Predators, but all eyes will be on the captains–and as Hughes and Josi go, so will the rest of the defensive corps.