This series has been marked by striking defensive efforts from both teams. The Preds blocked 35 shots in their Game 2 win and held the Canucks to a mere 12 shots on goal in the Game 3 loss. However, it’s the Canucks’ defense that’s proving the bigger problem for Nashville.
Get to the Net (With Friends)
Going into Game 2, Thatcher Demko’s injury was a huge story. Casey DeSmith hasn’t historically been great, and he doesn’t have much playoff experience at all. Nashville had the opportunity to capitalize on this, and… well, when they’ve gotten high-quality chances, most of those chances have gone in. The problem has been getting those high-quality chances at all.
Sportsnet’s Adam Vingan has been regularly pointing out that goals against Saros this series have come through screens.
To the best of my ability to judge, that Game 1 goal by Dakota Joshua remains the only one where a screen wasn’t a key part of Saros’s inability to stop the play. He had a clear look at Brock Boeser’s tap-in tonight, but I don’t believe he saw the pass that gave Boeser the puck.
This is something the Nashville Predators have really, really struggled to do themselves. While they’re still taking shots from around the net more often than we’ve seen in some previous postseasons, they haven’t been able to consistently get through the Canucks’ defense enough to get the kind of movement and traffic they need to make DeSmith actually work for his saves.
Jason Zucker’s missed goal from last night–where the shot trickled through DeSmith and towards the goal line before a Canucks defender was able to get there and clear it–is another example of the netfront presence the Preds haven’t had. Zucker was in the right place, doing the right thing; he didn’t have the support that might have made it a tie game, and might have set the Preds up for a series lead.
Break the Game Open
One of the other obvious storylines at this point in the series is how effectively the Canucks have stifled Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg, the players who have been The Guy many times for the Preds this season and before.
Josi has attempted 20 shots–second on the team behind Forsberg’s 23–but only four have made it on net, and all four have been saved. Forsberg has placed his better, and almost half have gone through, but he’s still shooting a lukewarm 10% on ten shots on goal. Neither of them has been creating the kind of offense we know they’re capable of, or setting their teammates up in the same way.
I always hesitate to cast blame during the playoffs. The sample sizes are very small, and the stakes are high. Players will force themselves to push through injury, illness, personal stress, and more. Scrutinizing and criticizing players for underperforming doesn’t make them better in the regular season, and it doesn’t make them better in the postseason.
However, it is the case that the Preds need to get a massive offensive performance from someone, as a great way to smash the Canucks’ defensive shell and put DeSmith to work. If Forsberg or Josi is able to shake their defensive coverage and make it happen, fantastic; if not, making the Canucks split their efforts is also a huge advantage for the Preds.
I loved Evangelista’s goal last night. He spent the last quarter of the regular season putting in a great effort night in and night out (with bad shooting luck to show for it), and he’s been one of the Preds’ best offensive players this series, if not the best. More of that from him, or from Gustav Nyquist, might be a great way for Nashville to start to turn this around.
Quick Notes
Spencer Stastney left the game last night with what the team reported as an upper-body injury. He had previously been hit headfirst into the glass, though he returned briefly after evaluation before leaving again. Hopefully he gets well very soon, but in the meantime there’s a very good chance we see Dante Fabbro or maybe Tyson Barrie in tomorrow’s game.
Rick Tocchet’s coaching has been great, and the Canucks’ special teams in particular have been phenomenal. While the Preds managed to hold their power play at bay until tonight, it really felt like only a matter of time–especially with how many penalties the Preds have been taking–and their penalty kill has been spectacular. They’ve done a fantastic job neutralizing Josi and the rest of the PP along with him.
I’d love to see Andrew Brunette and co. adapt to the Canucks’ tactics and get the Preds back to being a threat with the skater advantage in this series. I’d also love to see the Preds take fewer penalties, especially if they can’t sort out their power play; refs like to even out calls, and they’re much better 5v5 than with anyone in the box.
Game 4
The Preds will once again try to even the series tomorrow at 4PM Central. Stay tuned for your preview, recap, and analysis.
Statistics and background from naturalstattrick.com.