The Streak is finally over.
Nashville’s 18-game point streak, which started with a 5-2 win in St. Louis on Feb. 17 and an infamously canceled trip to see U2 at the Sphere in Vegas, was snapped Thursday night with an 8-4 loss to the Coyotes on the road. During that stretch, Nashville has gone from a playoff afterthought to a team all but assured of a spot. Let’s look at how the Predators have turned their season around.
Monsters at five-on-five
This run wasn’t a fluke. The Predators simply outplayed their opponents on a nightly basis.
During The Streak, the Predators recorded the best expected goals-for percentage in the league (57%) at five-on-five, while outscoring their opponents 53-23. Nashville won the expected goals battle at five-on-five in all but three of its games during that stretch.
This sudden surge for Nashville came out of nowhere. Through Feb. 16, the Preds were a shade under 50% in terms of shot attempts and 10th in expected goals share. Nashville’s last loss before The Streak, an embarrassing 9-2 defeat to Dallas on Feb. 15, was the second of back-to-back games that saw the Preds post an xGF% below a measly 35%.
Nashville was top five in the league in both creating expected goals for and suppressing expected goals against per 60 minutes during this stretch. The Preds have also done an excellent job of generating high-danger chances while not giving up much at the other end. During The Streak, nobody allowed fewer high-danger chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and Nashville was fifth in high-danger chances on offense.
As with virtually any hot streak, the Predators have had some bounces go their way. Nashville owned the league’s highest PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) at five-on-five during The Streak, at 105. The Predators also scored 53 goals on 43.4 expected and only allowed 23 on 32.8 expected.
But running hot at both ends of the ice and the ensuing regression is really only a concern if there’s something wrong or fluky with the process, and that’s not what Nashville has done.
Stars are shining but so is everyone else
For Nashville to return to the playoffs, the thought before the season was that it needed big seasons from Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi and then pray that it could develop some of its younger players as depth. Safe to say, mission accomplished.
Nobody on the Predators is as hot as Filip Forsberg right now. The Swede had a team-high 28 points during Nashville’s 18-game point streak, including 15 goals. Forsberg has enjoyed a bounce-back season after a difficult 2022-23 campaign, and this recent hot streak has pushed him past the 40-goal mark for the second time in his career.
Forsberg has also settled into a top line with Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist, who have both turned back the clock despite being over 30. Only the Rangers’ trio of Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck have spent more time together on the ice at five-on-five this season (per Evolving Hockey), and it’s all come together for Nashville’s top line as of late. All three players had an xGF% above 56% during The Streak.
The Predators have finally found the legitimate top-line center they’ve been desperately searching for in O’Reilly, especially after buying out Matt Duchene in the offseason. Nyquist then helped stabilize the first line, with a career-high 66 points and counting at the ripe young age of 34.
Josi also continues to churn out one incredible season after another, and he has once again delivered a strong season in the offensive end. He was tied with Nyquist with 24 points in those 18 games while, rocking an unbelievable xGF% of 64.8% at five-on-five. Josi also currently ranks third among defensemen in Evolving Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement stat at 19.3.
While the usual characters have delivered for Nashville this year, the Predators have gotten contributions from throughout the lineup. It might have taken some time, but Nashville’s younger players have stepped up.
Case in point: Tommy Novak. Nashville turned some heads when it re-signed the 26-year-old late bloomer to a three-year deal worth $3.5 million per year in early March instead of dealing him at the deadline. Novak flashed plenty of offensive skill in his first stint as a full-time NHLer last season, but he’s also developed a more well-rounded game this year. Nashville’s patience with him has paid off, and Novak scored 12 points in those 18 games.
Nashville has also seen Luke Evangelista, its 42nd overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, take a big step forward. Evangelista saw some NHL action last year, but this year he’s scored 33 points in 71 games. Dante Fabbro has also developed into a solid, complementary defenseman next to Josi.
The Preds are likely always going to depend on Forsberg and Josi to do the brunt of the work, but they also needed to cobble together some depth for them to be a playoff-caliber team. There have been plenty of encouraging signs this year, especially from their younger players.
Goaltending has been superb, too
November was a month to forget for Juuse Saros. Nashville’s star goaltender slumped early in the season, posting an .880 save percentage in November.
But Saros has improved as the season has gone on, and he hasn’t posted a monthly save percentage below .900 since those early-season struggles. The Finn was nearly unbeatable in February alone, finishing the month with a .926 save percentage.
During The Streak, Nashville had the league’s highest save percentage at five-on-five (.944). The Predators’ excellent defensive play certainly helped, but Saros has played well even after adjusting for shot quality. Saros saved 6.9 goals above expected during The Streak, per Evolving Hockey.
Not to be outdone, Kevin Lankinen has been just as good, though he only played in four games during that stretch. Lankinen recorded a nearly identical 6.39 GSAx, while giving Saros some rest down the stretch.
Combine Nashville’s dominant two-way play with some favorable shooting and save percentages, and it’s easy to see how the Predators suddenly became the hottest team in the NHL. Now it’s up to them to sustain it.
All stats are via Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted.