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Preds-Canucks Game 1 Analysis: Possession and Decision

Apr 21, 2024; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Vancouver Canucks forward Dakota Joshua (81) celebrates scoring the game winning goal against the Nashville Predators in the third period in game one of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports

Editor’s note: OTF welcomes Alex H to our 2024 postseason coverage! She taught me a lot of what I know about hockey, and I’m delighted to have her on board helping cover this series.


A former Vancouver Canucks player of some renown described Game One as “being fought in a phone booth” on the ESPN broadcast during the second intermission. He, of course, has the advantage in terms of experience and expertise. However, with respect to Mark Messier, I don’t think focusing on a pair of scrums as emblematic of the whole game is the best way to sum up just what happened between the Preds and the Canucks. What happened was a game built on two things: possession and throwing haymakers.

Possession

This was, from the jump, a fast-paced game with a lot of transition hockey and back-and-forth through the neutral zone.

It began with the Canucks dominating possession for the first 90 seconds and ended in about the same manner, with three goals (one being an empty-netter as the Preds attempted a comeback). Vancouver won faceoffs at a solid 56% through the game, holding a 70-30 advantage after the first period alone. Besides a brief window after the Preds’ power-play goal in the first period, shot attempts favored Vancouver–often by a sizable margin–throughout the game. 

The vibes were similarly not great, Bob. While the Preds did good work on special teams (both for and against), they struggled to put together consistent pressure in the offensive zone. Most of their best work came off transition or when the Canucks were on the back foot.

The Canucks were decent in the first period at breaking up the Preds’ attack (minus the first power play) but they got steadily better as the game went on. By the last ten minutes of the third period it was a struggle for the Preds to put together any kind of attack on Thatcher Demko, sustained or otherwise. The only exception to that was when they pulled Juuse Saros for the extra attacker, which did see a goal scored…against the Preds, into the empty net.

This leads to the second point.

Haymakers

In years past, the Preds could seem…overwhelmed, let’s say, by other teams, especially when they had to score goals of their own to match the herculean work of the defense and especially the goalie. Much like a tennis player with a wicked forehand and a backhand that looked more like a volleyball lob, the Preds were unbalanced.

That is not the case with this year’s edition. Veteran leadership, the new direction gelling, U2 devil magic–whatever the cause (and the options are myriad, with the most likely answer being at least a bit of “all of the above”), the Predators came in ready to throw down with one of the best teams of the regular season. 

They scored first, courtesy of great passing and good screens in front of Thatcher Demko, and when the Canucks tied the game up less than a minute into the second period, they didn’t turtle up. They kept scrapping for the puck and traded possession with the Canucks, then capitalized on their second power play, which came after a solid battery of sustained shots and pressure on in the offensive zone. This despite a crowd that was capital-L Loud even before the first puck drop–and one with a history for occasional property damage. (All love to our friends in Vancouver; I hope you do not feel the need to burn any cars.)

The problem was that after looking a bit on their heels in the first period, the Canucks also demonstrated that they were, in fact, ready. They scored twice midway through the third period, doing so in 12 seconds–a franchise playoff record–and never looked back. The Preds did mount good attacks on the Canucks, including a fairly sustained run from about the 13 minute mark to 15:30, but the Canucks were able to clear more often than not, giving them a chance to reset and get line changes in to weather the pressure.

Both teams put a lot into this game; if it was a phone booth they were fighting over, it was certainly one that’s bigger on the inside, as there were plenty of full-length runs up and down the ice. The spacing and basic geometry of the Preds’ offense–good touches, good passing, lots of movement–looks the best it has in years, possibly in the history of the franchise. The main question is: if both teams are throwing everything they have into this series, will the Preds’ punch be enough?

Odds and Ends

Some quick bullet points before wrapping up with Three Stars.

  • My kingdom for a good, consistent set of stats shown on live TV. ESPN had the shots ticker up on the score bug, but it kept getting updated and with some questionable choices. I’d kill for possession stats in real time, especially when so many other sports have them openly accessible. 
  • It certainly worked in the first half of the game, and I suspect the plan was to make sure the Preds’ top players had enough in the tank for a big push if they needed to (which, kudos there)–but Andrew Brunette’s choices for the starting lineup had me admittedly a bit puzzled. 
  • As the game went on, things got more and more heated between the players on the ice. That’s sort of expected for a playoff series, but it may get a little chippy as we go to Game 2 in Vancouver, and ditto when the series shifts to Nashville for 3 & 4 (and then hopefully back to Vancouver).

Three Stars

First Star goes to Ryan O’Reilly, who scored the Predators’ power play goal in the second and was the hinge point on so many good instances of Nashville’s attack, especially in transition. 

Second Star goes to Juuse Saros and also Jason Zucker. Yes, that’s two players, but this is my version of Three Stars and I’ll do what I want with it. Zucker scored the first goal of the series and his ninth playoff goal overall, and did so with excellent work in the offense. Saros gets the nod because he was working his tail off from start to finish (which, while great to see him doing well, is not an ideal set of circumstances for a goalie) and made some crucial saves to keep the Canucks from turning this into a 6-2 game, which would have had very different vibes all around.

Third Star, because I am a gracious Predators fan, goes to the Vancouver home crowd. Holy smokes, they were loud. My joking aside about the semi-rabid nature of Canucks fans (which, yes, does have some historical backing to it), there will be a lot of sore throats in Vancouver tomorrow morning. They were in it from the start, the Nashville goals only quieted them down a little–and they were roaring by the time the Canucks took the lead in the third. Can’t really fault them for being excited, especially with the cardio stress test that is playoff hockey coming back to their city.

Talking Points