John Hynes is out. Andrew Brunette is in. This is a dream scenario, Predators fans.
Brunette was a 7th-round draft pick by the Washington Capitals in the 1993 NHL Entry Draft. Over the course of 16 seasons and an even 1,110 NHL games, he scored 733 points. He wore six different uniforms, one of which was particularly important in 1998-99 when the Nashville Predators first debuted in the National Hockey League.
Brunette is most known around the Predators for scoring the first goal in franchise history, which linked his name to the coaching position since the rumor that John Hynes might be out of a job started circulating. He only played one season with the team in the early part of his career, putting up 11 goals and 20 assists for 31 points in 77 games, which isn’t spectacular by any means, but he will always have his name etched in Predators history.
Now, he’s returning to become the next head coach of the team and the first head coach of the Barry Trotz regime.
So, why should Predators fans be excited about this hire?
Admittedly, the resume is short. But the resume is also about as exciting as you can find on the coaching market.
After the Chicago Blackhawks scandal and the fallout being the resignation of then-Florida Panthers head coach Joel Quenneville (among other things), Brunette took over behind the bench in Sunrise. In 75 games as head coach, Brunette’s record was 58-18-6, and plenty of players had career seasons, including names like Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Aaron Ekblad, and more. But even though the results were excellent, something about how they were achieved caught everyone’s eyes, and that was through fun hockey.
There’s only one word to describe the way that Brunette teams play, and that’s “pace.” His teams play fast and love possession in all three zones, particularly in transition. Below is a chart from Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones showcasing zone entries leading to scoring chances per 60 minutes and controlled zone entries per 60 minutes. The Panthers shattered everyone in both.
And what’s even more important is that the Predators were below the average in both categories in this particular season and in 2022-23 as well. The only form of consistently strong transition comes in the form of Roman Josi, and because they missed him this past season, their transition numbers were worse for wear.
To go even further, Brunette teams create lots of expected goals, and more importantly, they create lots of tangible opportunities and score lots of goals. Below is the 2021-22 Panthers’ team RAPM chart. Blue/purple bars being close to the third standard deviation means they were in or around the 98th percentile in those offensive categories.
And just for fun, here is Brunette’s coaching impact chart from Micah Blake McCurdy, aka HockeyViz.
In case you’re confused, the red numbers or the “score terms” are, according to McCurdy, “added to zero, by definition, so you can think of them as how the system changes based on the score (in addition to changing the personnel).” The shell terms are “how the system changes in the third period when the team is either tied or leading.” However, there’s only one thing to be garnered from a chart like this, and it’s that there are a lot of expected goals for and expected goals against.
Some might be concerned by his short track record as a head coach, but I would urge anyone with those issues to take a step back and consider what coach they wanted to be hired in place of Hynes. While Brunette doesn’t have a long tenure as an NHL head coach, neither does someone like Karl Taylor, and Brunette’s tenure with the New Jersey Devils in 2022-23 as an assistant coach was a big reason why they jumped from one of the worst teams in the stacked Metropolitan Division to one of the best (other than the objectively talented roster that was stunted by awful goaltending last season).
This Predators roster isn’t as good as the roster in Florida when Brunette was the head coach or in New Jersey when he was an assistant and tempering expectations for the standings might be for the best. However, the goal of this hire shouldn’t be to speed up “the process” of retooling, resetting, or reshaping the team. There are lots of young players who will be vying for spots in the everyday NHL lineup, plenty of whom earned it in 2022-23 due to all the injuries, and Brunette’s style of hockey emphasizes everything that is important in today’s hockey: speed, pace, and possession. Play the right way, and the results will come, and if Brunette’s track record says anything, the Predators are more than likely to be a fun team to watch in 2023-24 than not.
Stay tuned throughout the week as On The Forecheck continues our coverage of the hire, including perspectives from media members who have covered Brunette in the past.